Two New Polls Show Sununu Extremely Vulnerable In New Hampshire
Wow. Two new polls show that first-term Senator John Sununu of New Hampshire is extremely vulnerable to a challenge in 2008 — particularly one from former governor Jeanne Shaneen, whom he narrowly defeated back in 2002.
The first poll, from the American Research Group, shows Shaheen beating Sununu by an astonishing 57%-29% margin.
Meanwhile, the new poll from Suffolk University finds that Sununu's numbers are in truly awful shape. Only 31% of respondents said he deserves re-election, versus 47% who said they would be for someone else.
Three Democrats are currently seeking the party's nomination — Portsmouth Mayor Steven Marchand, centrist Democratic activist Katrina Swett, and Dartmouth professor and former astronaut Jay Buckey. But many other Democratic leaders, local and national, are trying to persuade Shaheen to make the race. This poll will only provide encouragement, with its apparent promise of an easy victory.
Sununu's personal collapse serves as a reminder of the GOP's overall collapse as a whole in the state. New Hampshire was historically the Republicans' New England stronghold, but in 2006 the state went strongly to the Democrats, who defeated both incumbent Republican Representatives and seized strong majorities in both houses of the legislature.
Sununu's abysmal numbers suggest that 2006 was not a fluke, but potentially a long-term realignment in the state. One possible cause: President Bush's approval rating in the state is a mere 14%. Meanwhile, Dem Governor John Lynch stands tall at 64% approval.
Comments (12)
PeteB wrote on June 28, 2007 10:57 AM:I guess voters in NH don't much like politicians who steal elections.
jmnyc wrote on June 28, 2007 10:58 AM:NH's transformation is really amazing. The state has been trending Dem since Shaheen's election in 1996. I think it has a lot to do with the Repubs total alignment with the Christian right and Southern wings of their party. It has destroyed the party throughout the NE and Mid Atlantic region which tended to be more libertarian Repub - lower taxes, stay out of my life attitude. I live in Manhattan which had a vibrant liberal Repub base for years but there is not one R office holder in the borough anymore and that is not likely to change anytime soon.
ifthethunderdontgetya wrote on June 28, 2007 11:33 AM:And as a result (among other bad results), we have Joe Lieberman, now head of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, not conducting any oversight of the Department that failed and continues to fail New Orleans.
DaveW wrote on June 28, 2007 12:27 PM:Shaheen sounds worth fighting for, and LieberLover Swett is worth fighting against in the primary. What are Steven Marchand and Jay Buckey like?
I sounds like NH's turnabout started with Shaheen's ascent to the state house. Could it be that this is just a response to her being a great governor? In my own home state of Illinois we became solid blue as a result of local/state GOP official scandals. Maybe all politics really IS local.
chastened wrote on June 28, 2007 12:41 PM:It is important to note that Shaheen has name recognition but times have changed since the last election. Shaheen is a child of the DLC (Lieberman), a republican lite. She is in favor of state sponsored murder (death penalty), she vetoed the income tax bill, she lost a lot of her support of women voters by being non-responsive to issues such as domestic violence. She will have a tough time garnering support of progressives. When she ran last the state party was in the grasp of the DLC but now that that Sullivan woman has gone the worship of Shaheen has gone also.
Let us not forget that Carol Shea Porter was elected even though the state party, Sullivan, was overtly and shockingly supporting the DLC candidate in the primary. Porter was elected overwhelmingly by the turnout of progressive voters. Nope Shaheen's times has passed. The DLC is losing it's luster and the progressives are taking back their party. DLC candidates, throughout the US have been pro war and have been defeated. Shaheen should stay out of the race, stay in Massachusetts and recognize that her time has passed.
DaveW wrote on June 28, 2007 12:43 PM:Well, the poll makes it sound like this is an opportunity for NH Dems to elect a real progressive to the Senate. If not Shaheen, who would that be?
chastened wrote on June 28, 2007 1:00 PM:Jay Buckey. He was against the war from the outset
ohiomeister wrote on June 28, 2007 2:31 PM:Yes, the Live Free or Die state does not have much in common with the deficit-spending, anti-science, in-your-bedroom, government-spying, Iraq War, Bush-Cheney GOP.
Also, lot of people have moved from Massachusetts to New Hampshire (and Maine, where there will also be a close Senate race) in recent years as well.
Kerry only won by a few thousand votes in 2004, but the House seats changed over in 2006, and these polls are extremely encouraging for the Senate race in 2008.
ohiomeister wrote on June 28, 2007 2:37 PM:To be fair, Shaheen was a popular, centrist governor in a state that at the time leaned Republican. I don't think the fact that she didn't bring an income tax to one of the most historically anti-tax states (note current police stand-off with tax objectors) is such a big deal.
Shaheen would likely take more progressive stances as a candidate for Senate. She can obviously raise money. She and her husband have been huge supporters of the Democratic party in NH. Running the Institute of Politics at Harvard's JFK School of Gov't is not a bad thing to do after your political career, either.
SanPasqualCA wrote on June 28, 2007 4:46 PM:
I wouldn't be surprised if Susan Collins, next door in Maine, is also in increasingly deep trouble. She fell from 70%ish approval in January to 57% in May. I doubt that's where it stops.
There are rumors about that Judd Gregg has already decided not to run for reelection in '10. New Hampshire has changed enormously from the days when he and Bob Smith (remember him?) ruled the roost there and the state was reactionary NRA country.
In 2011 Olympia Snowe may well be the last Republican holding federal office in New England.
KevStar wrote on June 28, 2007 11:37 PM:Chastened's little screed here is riddled with factual errors and oversights, so before everyone forms an erroneous opinion let's set his stuff straight:
For example, "that Sullivan woman" [sic], NH Democratic Party chair Kathy Sullivan, did not support Jim Craig in the primary. (Also, let's get away from calling every candidate backed by the party apparatus as "DLC candidate"--it's wildly inaccurate.) When Shea-Porter won the primary, she enthusiastically supported her, and was quoted as saying that Jim Craig's establishment support sank him.
More importantly, in a year when Democratic establishment types in other states had a mixed record of coming out to support long-shot candidates, Jeanne Shaheen didn't let her pride get in the way and actively supported Carol. Her husband Bill was Carol's general election co-chair, for instance.
Finally, "her time has passed" does not square at all with the findings in the poll now, does it?
Cy Guy wrote on June 28, 2007 11:59 PM:In 2011 Olympia Snowe may well be the last Republican holding federal office in New England.
Assuming you don't count Boltin' Joe.
