Can Dems Take Craig's Seat In 2008? Probably Not.
Do Dems have a chance of picking up Larry Craig's Senate seat in the wake of his conviction for disorderly conduct in a public men's room?
The short answer: A Dem pickup is not very likely.
True, there's already a Democratic candidate in in the race: Former Congressman Larry LaRocco, who served from 1991-1995. He's already running hard for the seat, doing populist-style campaign "work days" and courting the netroots, moves that have spurred interest among the state's Democratic activists.
Nonetheless, there are reasons for Dems to be pessimistic about their chances. For one thing, Idaho is an overwhelmingly Republican state, practically one-party. The state went 69%-30% for President Bush in 2004, and has not voted for a Democratic candidate for president since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964 — and even then, Johnson only won Idaho 51%-49% even as he defeated Barry Goldwater nationally by a 61%-38% majority. The state legislature is heavily Republican, with a 51-19 GOP majority in the House and an even more lopsided 28-7 margin in the Senate.
It's true that Democrats have had some luck in past gubernatorial races, with Cecil Andrus and John Evans holding the governorship for 24 years between them, from 1971-1995. But they were in many ways exceptions to the rule, just as many New England states often elect Republican governors to provide balance against Democratic legislatures. And since 1994, the GOP has won four consecutive elections for governor without much trouble.
Furthermore, media reports already showed some potential Republican candidates waiting in the wings if Larry Craig were to retire, and furthermore, that was before this scandal officially broke.
The most notable GOP candidate is Lt. Governor Jim Risch, who succeeded to the governorship but chose to run again for Lt. Governor so as to avoid a divisive primary. The GOP likely remembers Risch's graceful behavior in that circumstance, and would be ready to repay him for it in a vacant Senate contest.
And interestingly enough, Jim Risch won his election for Lt. Governor last year against none other than Larry LaRocco. Risch won that race 58%-39%. So if LaRocco were to face Risch a second time, he would need to swing ten percent of the state's voters from Risch over to himself — some pretty long odds.
So if Larry Craig retires — which seems highly likely at this point — the Republican nominee will be heavily favored to win in 2008. And if Craig resigns, we'll probably see Risch appointed to the seat and be given all the advantages of incumbency in a deep-red state.
So in the end, this story may offer little in the way of hope from a partisan perspective. That's not to say, however, that you shouldn't sit back and enjoy the fun.
Comments (24)
shortstop wrote on August 28, 2007 1:20 PM:Perhaps we should proceed in all races with the assumption that at any moment, during any part of any campaign, the Republican candidate may be outed for illegal or highly embarrassing sexual activity, aka the Ryan-Foley Rule. Call it the sexual arm of the 50-state strategy, a nice complement to the ever-present possibility that at any moment, a GOP candidate will be indicted for something non-sexual.
westbury wrote on August 28, 2007 1:24 PM:Unrelated comment, but I'm wondering why the latest gallup poll showing Obama and Clinton tied hasn't been commented on or isn't listed in the poll tracker?
Eric Kleefeld wrote on August 28, 2007 1:29 PM:"Perhaps we should proceed in all races with the assumption that at any moment, during any part of any campaign, the Republican candidate may be outed for illegal or highly embarrassing sexual activity, aka the Ryan-Foley Rule. Call it the sexual arm of the 50-state strategy, a nice complement to the ever-present possibility that at any moment, a GOP candidate will be indicted for something non-sexual."
Not a bad idea. But in this case, it just happened too soon.
But in this case, it just happened too soon.
Premature evisceration?
shortstop wrote on August 28, 2007 1:35 PM:"Not a bad idea. But in this case, it just happened too soon."
Ah, but you see, we shouldn't assume it won't happen again with whomever runs for Craig's seat on the Republican ticket! That's the beauty of the Ryan-Foley Rule--it's always in effect.
Anonymous wrote on August 28, 2007 1:39 PM:This whole thing reminds me of a classic joke, in which a old man stands upon a farmed hill, looking down at the village below. "See this farm?" he asks. "I tilled this soil and sowed its wheat for decades. But do they call me Oskar the Farmer? No, they do not.
"See the village below? My wheat fed the people who live and work there, filling the bakeries and restaurants with healthy, nourishing bread. But do they call me Oskar the Provider? No, they do not.
"And do you see the bell tower for the town hall? I was mayor of this town for 10 years! I passed important laws, built needed roads, brought business this small village might never have known. But do they call me Oskar the Statesman? No, they do not.
"But you hump one goat..."
Lettuce wrote on August 28, 2007 1:41 PM:oops, forgot to put my info after that.
My favorite thing about the joke? I've gotten to use it some half dozen times over the last year or so. Thank you, Republican Party!
terry hallinan wrote on August 28, 2007 1:41 PM:For sure it would be foolish to bet that Idaho would elect a Democratic senator, and particularly if Romney is the Republican nominee for president considering Idaho's substantial Mormon population.
Still quoting statistics from the past may not be all that meaningful. Idaho is a small rural state. Retail politics is meaningful and rural areas have been impacted most by the Iraq War.
Larry LaRocco seems a particularly knowledgeable and attractive candidate from a distance. I don't find LaRocco's defeat in a race for Lt. Gov. particularly meaningful given the emphasis on the top of the ticket in such races.
An early retirement and an interim appointment along with the previous mention of a Romney run for president may be the Republican's surest ticket to holding the seat.
Just some thoughts.
Best, Terry
POed Lib wrote on August 28, 2007 2:07 PM:It does allow the Democrats to continue to point at the Repukeliscum as the Party of Perversion.
It also allows us to discuss the Repukeliscum visiting the scene of the crime with their national convention.
Jestak wrote on August 28, 2007 2:07 PM:In 2006, Republican Butch Otter won the governor's race, but with only 52% of the vote, while in the 1st District House race, Republican Bill Sali squeezed through with a plurality win and just under 50% of the vote. Democrats can be competitive in Idaho even if the state is not competitive at the presidential level, just as in next-door Montana.
ohiomeister wrote on August 28, 2007 2:12 PM:It was a weird election, but the Sali-Grant race for the ID-2 House seat was only 50-45, so we shouldn't dismiss it out of hand. A conservative Dem might have a chance. The demographics are also changing favorably, as more and more outdoorsy types move to Idaho (and vote Dem).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idaho%27s_1st_congressional_district_election%2C_2006
Lettuce wrote on August 28, 2007 2:13 PM:I think a Dem actually has an even chance to take the seat -- but it requires the next stage of this story to work against the Republicans in Idaho. How often was Craig "wide stancin' it"? Did the GOP know? Even without a crime, the drip drip of this story will continue, and spread to others in the GOP. It'll enrage the intolerant and discourage their activity.
Also: It could give a platform to a really hate-filled kinda anti-gay guy. That could draw others to the Dems... or it could mean a really horrible GOP senator replacing Craig. Which is a distinction without a difference.
me wrote on August 28, 2007 2:14 PM:A Dem pickup is not very likely.
"Pickup." Heh heh.
Ferruge wrote on August 28, 2007 2:20 PM:Probably not? Oh well, I guess there's no point in trying then. Is it too early to concede the election?
Anonymous wrote on August 28, 2007 4:38 PM:TPM Exclusive!
Hidden Microphone: Grand Old Pigpile Caucus
Official A wrote on August 28, 2007 4:42 PM:"Is Craig's Seat a Possible Dem Pick-up?"
That's apropos.
Anonymous wrote on August 28, 2007 4:44 PM:It may not matter that much if the Dems can pick up the seat. What may matter more is that it ends up being a place that the Repubs have to spend time and money in a cycle where they are already playing some serious defense. If LaRocco can make the Repubs actually work to win the Senate seat, it's precious resources that can't go elsewhere.
john mccutchen wrote on August 28, 2007 4:45 PM:Damn new format. link didn't take
The Hidden Microphone..
Emergency Caucus - US Senate, Grand Old Pigpile
http://www.moviesounds.com/fmj/mp3/cowboy.mp3
CODemocrat wrote on August 28, 2007 5:00 PM:Larry LaRocco's challenges go a bit deeper than these things -- all true, by the way. He lost his seat in the 1994 catastrophe and proceeded to get involved in a very public sex scandal involving an employee or colleague (can't remember which) at his law firm, followed by the payment of some hush money. All documented by the Boise daily paper. To put it very mildly, he's got some work to do.
Look elsewhere, fellow progressives and Democrats. There are plenty of opportunities, including possibly -- and improbably -- one state east in Wyoming. This one ain't happening.
j wrote on August 28, 2007 10:08 PM:South Dakota and North Dakota show similar results in presidential and state legislative elections (not that I put too much emphasis on results from the 1964 presidential race), but Democrats are able to compete in the races for Congress. These states lack the large LDS population of Idaho, but Wyoming, a generally Republican state with a fairly large LDS population, occassionally elects Democrats to Congress, or as Governor.
Rather than assume that the seat cannot be won, it would be better to discuss what a Democrat needs to do to win the seat
Frankly speaking, there is absolutely no reason an anti-choice, pro-gun Dem shouldn't be able to win in any safe GOP seat.
gonzone wrote on August 29, 2007 8:38 AM:Considering the subject matter that was quite a title for this piece. Double entendre.
The full text of Craig's speech, BTW, speaking of double entendres, was prefaced with "I'd like to thank all of you for coming out today."
paul wrote on August 29, 2007 12:18 PM:Even if LaRocco doesn't take the seat, it's still a victory if we can force the RNC and NRSC to spends money in a competitive race for what should be a "safe seat".
KDR wrote on August 29, 2007 2:01 PM:This one ain't happening.
Exactly.
Frankly speaking, there is absolutely no reason an anti-choice, pro-gun Dem shouldn't be able to win in any safe GOP seat.
The operative word is "safe."
I lived in southwest Idaho, thirty miles west of Boise, and I can tell you with certainty Craig's seat will remain safe for at least the next few decades. Rural Idahoans are an influential GOP constituency, and to them, conservative Democrats are still members of the "Democrat" Party, and are therefore untrustworthy. Wolves in sheep's clothing, to employ a hoary cliche. And it's not much better in the urban areas (particularly in eastern Idaho, a strong Mormon enclave).
To their way of thinking:
Candidate X is a Democrat
Bill Clinton is a Democrat
Therefore Candidate X will undoubtedly engage in tawdry sexual excapades while in office.
Seriously. I lived among these people. Some of them are good friends of mine. They're good people, but they were conditioned as children to foster an almost irrational hatred and fear of Democrats.
I know a longtime pro-gun, anti-choice Democrat from Mountain Home who, after several failed attempts to win election to a state house seat, had to switch parties to finally prevail. She is a public school teacher who had to practically renounce her past and embrace homeschooling. I'm sure she's not the only Idaho Democrat who's had to undergo a political conversion before being taken seriously.
It's a safe seat. Even if Craig were foolish enough to run, he'd be defeated by a primary challenger from his own party.
I think a Dem actually has an even chance to take the seat -- but it requires the next stage of this story to work against the Republicans in Idaho.
Nope. My Idaho friends say a lot of conservatives believe, or want to believe, that the Craig story is just a "Democrat" plot, cooked up by The Idaho Statesman (a good paper, by the way). They'll abandon Craig, but never the party. Ranchers who graze the public lands owe a debt of gratitude to Craig, Crapo and the late Helen Chenoweth for their staunch support, and they'll never unilaterally abandon the GOP. Conservatives in Boise, Meridian, Nampa, Caldwell, etc., are somewhat less likely to support Republicans, and this is reflected in the polls. But the true believers will remain loyal to the party, if not to Craig. It's just a "Democrat" plot, don't you see.
