Rudy's Support Slipping In Multiple Polls
The bad polling news is hitting Rudy in waves right about now. There's the new Washington Post poll, which finds him at his lowest point this year:
Giuliani’s support dropped from 37 percent in a July poll to 28 percent in the latest survey, and his decline from February has been even more sharp. Then, he had the backing of 53 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and had a better than 2 to 1 advantage over his closest rival.
...and the new Los Angeles Times poll, which finds him in trouble in crucial early primary states:
Rudolph W. Giuliani has been well ahead of his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination in nationwide polls, but he is far weaker in the crucial states that will cast early votes in the nominating process next year, according to a new Los Angeles Times/ Bloomberg poll that underscores how unsettled the GOP race remains.Among Republican voters, Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, trails Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he lags behind Fred Thompson in South Carolina.
...and the New York Times poll we noted yesterday which finds that Rudy holds no advantage on terrorism over his GOP rivals. That's right -- despite his best efforts, GOP primary voters just aren't buying the line that he's the GOP field's superior Terminator of Terrorists.
As Steve Benen puts it, "Giuliani is starting the post-Labor Day cycle with a decidedly downward trend. If he were a stock, I’d short him in a heartbeat." Surely it's no coincidence that Rudy's slippage coincides with the fact that more and more people are raising questions about his 9/11 performance and pointing out his serial exaggerations about it.
Late Update: Real Clear Politics has a comprehensive look at all the GOP polls and disputes the argument that Rudy's numbers are dropping.
Comments (32)
DaveW wrote on September 12, 2007 12:44 PM:Even among Republicans, reality strikes when it gets huge enough. It was only a matter of time before Rudy's cloud of cognitive dissonance started to choke him. Too bad. I was pulling for him as the most vulnerable of the GOP contenders.
js wrote on September 12, 2007 1:00 PM:Mitty will win the nomination b/c his flip-flopping has gone un-punished so far. Mitty is getting free ride by the MSM and Rudi.
Daniel wrote on September 12, 2007 1:06 PM:This could very well be due to the Law and Order factor driving Thompson's candidacy. No mistake about it, Thompson is on a roll and is receiving a major bounce. But many other factors favor Romney.
gqmartinez wrote on September 12, 2007 1:27 PM:I see three things driving his decline, opening the door a little for Thompson. First, he's a social liberal and more people are finding that out. That has let Thompson cast himself as the "conservative with a shot" since the other contenders have problems with the conservative base. Second, Giuliani cast his campaign as one which could be competetive in Blue states like NY. Since that's not the case, so why not support a "real" conservative (TM). Finally, his hold as the God of antiterrorism isn't holding.
All of those issues were talked about before and now they are probably starting to have an effect. Thompson may very well win, but I'm looking at Huckabee and McCain. Huckabee can run the toughest GOP campaign, but he's still somewhat of a longshot.
brewmn wrote on September 12, 2007 1:42 PM:But, but, but...the Serious Centrists on the Sunday talkers were just asserting that Rudy's toughness has trumped the faimly values card the others are playing, and that his appeal to moderates will enable him to breeze into the White House next year.
Why are you looking at hard numbers when there's so much easy conventional wisdom laying around for you to pick up and run with?
za wrote on September 12, 2007 1:53 PM:Thank the FSM. He's the scariest of all the candidates, by far. I'd rather have ANYONE than him.
You've heard of Bush-lite?
Well, Rudy would be Bush-on-steroids. He would signal the very end of our democracy.
Captain Nemo wrote on September 12, 2007 2:01 PM:It is refreshing to see Guiliani's poll numbers drop.
And Keith Olberman claims he is beating Billo in the ratings. Are we seeing the dawn's early light?
Is there some element of sanity in this process?
One would hope that the public is beginning to question what the MSM keeps telling them. Sure would be great to see Americans start asking questions and think for themselves.
Hollywood Fred has entered the race. Thus, the bed-wetting, authoritarian knuckle-draggers now have some one more musky, manly, and intellectually lazy to jerk off to.
gcs wrote on September 12, 2007 2:17 PM:Let's never forget Rudy's shining moment after 9/11, the one that has been conveniently forgotten by the MSM and pretyt much everyone else outside of New York. In the wake of 9/11, while the rubble was still smoldering and the site was alternately referred to as "ground zero" and "the pit" a far more apt description, Rudy decided New York just wouldn't be safe without him.
So he floated two delightfully Stalinist ideas. The first was that the mayoral election scheduled for November 6, should be postponed (Rudy was out because of term limits, and so couldn't run). The city was just too dangerous, went his alleged reasoning. Then, when that didn't fly and Bloomberg was elected, Rudy floated a second notion that maybe Bloomberg should wait until, oh sometime in the spring maybe, before being sworn in because things were STILL too dangerous. At least he gave us a timetable for his departure with that idea, unlike His Majesty deciding when he might let New Yorkers vote for a new mayor.
Let's make sure Rudy the clown who can't read the Constitution hears it - any elected official who says it's "too dangerous to have an election is too dangerous to be elected."
Think Rudy is scary now? You people outside New York don't know the half of it.
Chesire111 wrote on September 12, 2007 2:22 PM:Personally, I dont't think his social liberalism is as much of a handicap as people are claiming. The family-values crowd are used to getting little more than lip service from Republican politicians who mostly ignore them until the next election, so Rudy's stand on those issues probably doesn't hurt him as much as you would assume. Their willingness to continue to vote Republican is more a function of having nowhere else to go than of loyalty to or faith in the transparently false promises of GOP hacks.
I think his support is showing such softness because:
A) An "ethnic" (sorta), Catholic (sorta) from NYC just isn't going to get many votes from Southern Protestants of Northern European heritage.
B) The mayor of NYC isn't going to resonate with Midwestern farmers.
C) A politician from NYC isn't going to collect many votes in rural New Hampshire.
Bruce Hunt wrote on September 12, 2007 2:28 PM:I wouldn't put much stock in the Real Clear Politics analysis that supposedly shows Rudy holding steady. Mark Blumenthal's pollster.com has much better figures, and they clearly show Rudy declining over the last few months, McCain completely tanking, and Fred Thompson's rise flattening out. It's still Rudy's to lose, but I think at this rate he's pretty likely to lose it.
FearItself wrote on September 12, 2007 2:52 PM:I agree that Pollster.com is the best source. His numbers show Rudeeeee declining, but not precipitously. He's at around 27% nationally now, but by Pollster.com's calculations his real high point of support was only about 32% (in March, not July), and the rate of decline has slowed recently. Here is the graph. So realClear politics is not totally out of bounds.
BVD wrote on September 12, 2007 3:02 PM:ZA- Rudy isn't Bush on steroids. He's worse - he's Dick Cheney on steroids. He spent his entire 2 terms as NYC mayor circumventing the law, tying up the courts with decisions he knew would be trashed by judges but also knew that before the final court rulings he would have already gotten what he wanted. He decided that HE was the law. So he could do whatever he wanted.
If he gets into the White House the Constitution won't stand a chance.
AB Tigs wrote on September 12, 2007 3:32 PM:Prudent and conscientious voters are turning to RON PAUL now, particularly after seeing the Republican debates, and will continue to, for the Ron Paul campaign has been gaining momentum more than any other on the Republican side of the aisle.
Hey, Rudy- if you're reading this- my advice: put more emphasis on the REAL bogeyman, who's bringing this country down, who threatens America's very survival. Gays! Y'know, those sensitive guys you really used to like when you ran New York. Until you realized they're evil. I say make that your game plan.
MAK wrote on September 12, 2007 4:01 PM:Rudy was the Mayor of NYC at 9/11.
What was he expected to do after the attack??? Get in a plane and do flyovers. He was mayor for only 3+ months after the attack. Bloomberg has improved NYC in every way not just crime. Rudy sounds as if he is running for Attorney General not president.
Rudy is the Joe Lieberman 2004 of the GOP race.
dan wrote on September 12, 2007 4:08 PM:But he was the mayor of NY on 9/11. Don't people know that on 9/11 Rudy was the mayor of NY??? For crying out loud people, Rudy was the mayor of NY on 9/11!!! Nothing prepares you for the presidency like being the mayor of NY on 9/11.
P.S. This just in....Rudy was the mayor of NY on 9/11!!!
P.S.S. We get it Rudy...you were the mayor of NY on 9/11.
Mathews wrote on September 12, 2007 4:23 PM:Rudy gives me a boner. Actually so does Fred. Except when I think of Mitt's wide shoulders, then I practically explode.
Ha!
Jo-Ann wrote on September 12, 2007 4:28 PM:Giuliani's one note terrorism samba isn't enough for the nomination. I think Fred Thompson will get the right wing nod, but will need his scripts written for him so he sounds better than he acts. He's no Reagan, but since Hillary will be President, he can do the play out of town.
Jackson wrote on September 12, 2007 4:32 PM:Fred's getting a bounce, but Rudy is still number one in all the polls. Rudy will get the GOP nod, bet on it!
Karen wrote on September 12, 2007 5:02 PM:He was trying to ride September 11th into the White House and the cynicism of it is sickening. He didn't do anything anyone else would not have done and probably better. In the prior seven years plus, he had been a divisive and even racist persona. I wouldn't give much for Fred Thompson's chances or even rights to the job but they're better than Giuliani's.
He's the wizard of oz and people are starting to look behind the curtain.
the wizard of oz has been outed
poetry wrote on September 12, 2007 6:32 PM:Please listen to me: Rudy Giuliani is going to be our next president unless we all start, right now, informing everyone we can about his true character and his actual record as NYC mayor.
The media people love Rudy and will never tell the truth about him.
And west of the Hudson River (which separates New York City from the rest of the country), no one seems to know anything about Rudy Giuliani except that, on 9/11, he grabbed a microphone, found a TV cameraman and started talking while our president and vice president were huddled in bunkers. If, on 9/11, we had had decent, honorable men as our president and vice president, the nation would hardly have noticed the mayor of NYC.
Rudy did not direct ANY of the emergency response personnel. The firemen, policemen, and other emergency and rescue personnel did not need Rudy to tell them what to do; they all RACED -- unasked -- to the site of the World Trade Center. No one had to tell them to come, or even ask them to show up to help. They came because they are the best. They are the smartest and best-trained emergency responders in the country. Even those from neighboring states rushed to help.
The emergency response people were the heroes of 9/11, NOT Rudy Giuliani.
And those men who worked on The Pile frantically digging in the hope of saving someone but, later, of at least finding the bodies and body parts of the victims, so their loved ones could have something to bury -- those are the heroes of 9/11, NOT Rudy Giuliani.
All Rudy did on 9/11 was talk. Nothing else. He guided nothing. He directed nothing.
But, Rudy is even attracting the "family values" folks who no longer care about that nonsense because they now want someone as president who, they believe, will keep them safe -- and, to them, Rudy is that person.
This is serious and dangerous.
Rudy is every bit the fascist that Bush is, but he is more street smart and just as vicious.
Rudy has nothing but contempt for any rules or laws that would limit his freedom to destroy anyone who gets in his way.
But, most important, Rudy Giuliani has NO -- make that ZERO -- terrorism-fighting credentials. Just because someone is a survivor of an attack does not mean that person has any smarts about preventing a terror attack.
As a matter of record, even after the World Trade Center had been bombed by terrorists in 1993, and those terrorists had bragged that they would be back with a bigger bomb to finish the job, Rudy as NYC mayor NEVER held even one multi-agency drill during the next eight years to prepare the World Trade Center or NYC to deal with the next sure-to-happen attack.
Rudy Giuliani knows nothing about the country or the world outside NYC and has never -- I said, NEVER -- PREVENTED a SINGLE TERROR ATTACK.
Never.
So, where do people get the idea Rudy will make them safe?
It's the media people drooling over Rudy the same way they drooled over Bush in 2000, and for the same false reasons.
Get busy. Tell your friends and relatives and co-workers the truth about Rudy -- and do it now.
Because four months from now, it could all be over for the primaries, and Rudy would do very well in the general election because of his "moderate" social views, which are themselves a lie, since Rudy (though claiming to favor a woman's right to choose) has "promised" to appoint ANTI-abortion justices to the U.S. Supreme Court who would do AWAY with a woman's right to choose.
Justices such as Rudy has promised to appoint -- in the "mold of Scalia and Alito" -- would also do away with a lot of Constitutional rights and would consistently rule in favor of the government and the big corporations
The only ones who can stop Rudy are those who know the facts about Rudy.
Real Clear Politics cites its own internal polling to refute Giuliani's drop and then blames the media for typical tendentious reporting.
This is akin to Republicans everywhere trying to pin MoveOn's decision to run an unpopular add to the Democrats. The similarity lies in how loud they scream to distort any honest look at the content of the charge.
These right-wing strategies are harming the country and making us all cynical. Such agressive acts make us indifferent to politics. Sadly, I suspect that is their intent.
Erica wrote on September 12, 2007 6:55 PM:I believe that it is fair that guiliani's ratings have gone down. He has not shown too much regarding the quality of his character, especially as a candidate. I have not heard him speak anything regarding humanitarian interests, especially with the introduction of the Global Poverty Act in Congress. As someone who is responsible and ethical, he should advocate something like this.
pablo wrote on September 12, 2007 9:20 PM:The base has caught on to Sanctuary City Rudy. He really blew it at the last debate when he said if he was not running he would support McCain.
poetry wrote on September 12, 2007 10:07 PM:As a matter of fact, John McCain has endorsed Rudy Giuliani, so I think this would be the ticket if Rudy gets the nomination: Giuliani-McCain.
It's a winner for Rudy because he would get to use McCain's military service (since he has none of his own) and McCain would draw in the southwestern vote,
The big plus for Rudy, tho, is that McCain as vice president wouldn't be breathing down Rudy's neck, as McCain would realize he is too old and that the vice-presidency is as high as he's going to go.
Rudy would also get to use McCain's "Washington experience," since Rudy has NO experience outside the streets of New York City. Rudy doesn't even "get" upstate New York.
GuilianiScumbag wrote on September 12, 2007 10:26 PM:Guiliani is a scumbag. See for yourself:
http://www.loosechange911.com/lc2e.htm
It seems like a weak, weak candidate like Fred Thompson is actually going take this race as it currently stands. If Romney wins the nomination it spells GOP disaster for voter turnout in the southern states.
Somewhere Newt Gingrich is grinning like a Cheshire cat.
donkey wrote on September 13, 2007 1:38 AM:
that realclear graph
is realyclearly
convincing
heh...
