Novak: GOP Could Lose Five Or More Senate Seats Next Year
Robert Novak's latest: "The decision not to run by Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) now raises to five the possible losses of Senate seats by Republicans. Democrats also are targeting Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) for a sixth seat. If 2008 turns into a Democratic landslide, Senators Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) and even Mitch McConnell (R-KY) could be in danger."
Comments (25)
Daniel wrote on September 12, 2007 7:18 PM:This is really not surprising, given the awful state of the Senate GOP. Polls are awful, and incumbents rae retiring one after the other.
Check out these ">Senate rankings. Randy Owens wrote on September 12, 2007 7:59 PM:If I remember the current state of the Senate right, it would take nine to get a filibuster-proof supermajority, right? I forget which side wins an even 60-40 cloture vote.
Mike wrote on September 12, 2007 8:05 PM:The 40 win.
Senators Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) and even Mitch McConnell (R-KY) could be in danger."
Oh please, Ms. Dole is quite the bi*ch and McConnell is quite the idiot.
Romney and Fred are in a tit for tat. It's a party of misery, the Ghastly Old Party of spend and spend and lie and lie.
Sen. Warner and Hagel step-out with disdain and take the old conservative voters with them and any fragment of old style GOP ethics. The GOP is in a complete core meltdown, a shell of of neo-nazi radicals, with investment in lies, smears and trash. Bush and Cheney are GOP demons, looting, lying and causing woe.
it would take nine to get a filibuster-proof supermajority
Ten, if you count Lieberman.
eric wrote on September 12, 2007 8:38 PM:I don't see a list. Who are the Senators? My guesses would be:
Hegel
Collins
Warner
Sununu
Coleman is iffy.
GOP will keep Idaho.
Who else?
Kibitzer wrote on September 12, 2007 8:45 PM:For God's sake, why can't anyone seem to understand the simple principles:
1) You need 60 votes in the Senate to cut off a filibuster (i.e., to invoke cloture and get on with the vote).
2) You need 67 votes (>= 2/3) to override a veto.
--Kibitzer
Dave wrote on September 12, 2007 8:48 PM:Allard (R-CO) is retiring, and Colorado should be in play...
goofticket wrote on September 12, 2007 8:56 PM:If Novak is claiming 5 seats, then it's probably closer to ten.
Too bad for the GOPer's that Wisconsin's Feingold is safe, as is our other Senator.
We just need to get rid of Rep. Senslessbrainer, the former House Judciary Chair...who loved shutting down hearings and running away.
He's the heir to the Kotek fortune, his grandpa invented it ( no don't there)...and he's won the lottery three times.
Like he needs the money.
He needs a vacation...he's really stressed out.
Even more of a reason for Bill Richardson to drop his run for the Presidency and snatch Domenici's seat away. Richardson would have a legitimate shot and knocking Pete out of the box.
ifthethunderdontgetya wrote on September 12, 2007 10:40 PM:The Grand Old Pervert party deserves to waunder in the desert for forty years, at least, for what they've done to America in the last six.
gqmartinez wrote on September 12, 2007 10:49 PM:Cinderella,
Richardson should be in the race for president, IMO. Of all the candidates--Dem or GOPer--Richardson has the best resume. He still has a legitimate shot at winning. No one will believe me, but I place him as more likely to get the nomination than Obama.
That said, it's still a longshot for Richardson. He'll still have some time to decide on a Senate run should he not win the nomination for president and is not on the short list for VP, which I doubt since it is unlikely that a woman and a person of color will be on the same ticket.
Rob wrote on September 12, 2007 11:43 PM:By my count, there are 13 Republican seats that are in play (altho some of these are definitely a long shot):
Virginia
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Colorado
Nebraska
Oregon
Maine
North Carolina
Kentucky
New Mexico
Tennessee
Alaska
Oklahoma
The bottom half of the list are the long-shots. But possible, IMO.
acf wrote on September 12, 2007 11:48 PM:"Even more of a reason for Bill Richardson to drop his run for the Presidency and snatch Domenici's seat away. Richardson would have a legitimate shot and knocking Pete out of the box."
That sounds like an excellent idea.
Lawndale wrote on September 13, 2007 12:05 AM:Who cares if someone has the "best resume"? Richardson has shown in all of the debates that he's not really prepared to be president. He stumbles over answers, sometimes appears baffled, and doesn't measure up in terms of articulable policies with the other candidates, including Senator Mike Gravel. He should run for the Senate seat if he's not going to remain governor. His generally progressive views and record would prove a fine Democratic counterweight to the moderate Senatorial cowards and Bushocrats. Clinton, Obama and Edwards should be the top choice.
NYSoxfan wrote on September 13, 2007 2:20 AM:combine the retirements with the GOP Senators currently under investigation and/or an ethics cloud, and that 60 is looking reachable... a long shot perhaps but a worthy test of Dean's 50-state strategy
Chuck wrote on September 13, 2007 6:32 AM:As a Kentuckian, I can safely say Mitch McConnell is totally out of touch with those he represents. He will go down in defeat next year, thank God.
CalD wrote on September 13, 2007 8:53 AM:I would tend to move KY up a little on Rob's list too. And I don't know why anyone would think that Susan Collins, with a 70% approval rating (last anyone knew) is vulnerable if John Cornyn, at 40%, is not. Maine is frankly not that liberal a state. Collins may not be the institution there that Snow is yet but to assume she's vulnerable just because the state tends to vote democratic in presidential elections and people are tired of war strikes me as a little over-siplistic. And those are the only reasons for making that assumption that I've heard so far.
But IMHO, if Democrats don't put some effort into recruiting a high-grade candidate to run against Cornyn they are just passing up a golden opportunity for an upset at best and at the very least, to give Republicans some real trouble on their home turf. The value of building up a republicans-on-the-skids narrative for the MSM should not be discounted. I suspect the media are going to be shopping for a new narrative or two for the coming election year, since all the old reliable stock lines about Democrats they have been falling back on for so long have grown so threadbare at this point. People are starting to notice. I think we should help them out.
RWN wrote on September 13, 2007 11:46 AM:Regarding Colorado, unless something huge happens this state has turned purple to almost blue where Udall (D) is the favorite over any GOP (Schaffer the former Congressman) being put forward who is the only raising money for the contest.
Udall is a highly accomplised Congressman and will follow on the coat tails of Governor Ritter (D) and Salazar (D) recent statewide election. Colorado now has four Democratic Congressman of its seven and now some in party are looking at targeting Musgrave (4th)and Lamborn (5th). Tancredo (6th) is the other sorryful soul who holds the district in the rich southern Denver suburbs. Dem's hold DeGette (1st, Denver) Udall (2nd Boulder and northern Front Range), Salazar (3rd Puelbo and much of the Mtn's) and Perlmutter (7th Denver east suburbs).
It is thought that Musgrave is vulnerable from the disgruntled independents and traditional Republicans in Fort Collins & Greeley and amazingly Lamborn is vulnerable both in his own party and as erosion in the traditional base of the GOP in CO Springs.
RWN wrote on September 13, 2007 11:47 AM:Regarding Colorado, unless something huge happens this state has turned purple to almost blue where Udall (D) is the favorite over any GOP (Schaffer the former Congressman) being put forward who is the only raising money for the contest.
Udall is a highly accomplised Congressman and will follow on the coat tails of Governor Ritter (D) and Salazar (D) recent statewide election. Colorado now has four Democratic Congressman of its seven and now some in party are looking at targeting Musgrave (4th)and Lamborn (5th). Tancredo (6th) is the other sorryful soul who holds the district in the rich southern Denver suburbs. Dem's hold DeGette (1st, Denver) Udall (2nd Boulder and northern Front Range), Salazar (3rd Puelbo and much of the Mtn's) and Perlmutter (7th Denver east suburbs).
It is thought that Musgrave is vulnerable from the disgruntled independents and traditional Republicans in Fort Collins & Greeley and amazingly Lamborn is vulnerable both in his own party and as erosion in the traditional base of the GOP in CO Springs.
Col Bat Guano wrote on September 13, 2007 12:22 PM:As a NC resident, while I would like to believe Dole is vulnerable, the Democrats have been unable to find a high profile candidate to run against her. Also, while the state may be trending slightly less red, I don't see too much sentiment for a Democratic senator. It would require a heavy hitter to dislodge Dole at this point.
bocawayne wrote on September 13, 2007 1:19 PM:Thanks to the people who wrote in with the reality checks on the ground in their home states. I do see a lot of wishful thinking on here from time to time. A three or four seat Dem pickup would be a good night, IMO.
Marc wrote on September 13, 2007 4:10 PM:North Carolina State House Rep. Grier Martin (D) is considering a challenge to Elizabeth Dole for the Senate. Even though he's not well-known at all statewide, a recent poll had him only a few points behind Dole.
As an NC Dem, our best chance to have toppled Sen. Dole would've been Gov. Mike Easley who is term-limited out of office next year, but has no interest whatsoever in the race. Most high profile state Dems with Senate ambitions (ie - AG Roy Cooper) are probably sitting this one out to take on unpopular freshman Sen. Richard Burr, who's up for re-election in 2010.
I could easily see Grier becoming a big netroots candidate a la Jim Webb though. Elizabeth Dole needs a legitimate challenger and she could easily be knocked off. Making the Republicans spend money on protecting Dole will keep them from investing heavily in places like Maine, Minnesota and Oregon.
Rob wrote on September 13, 2007 4:58 PM:I would actually agree with CalD re: Maine. The only thing I would add is that Collins said repeatedly during her 2002 campaign that she would definitely not run for a 3rd term. A smart ad campaign drilling this backtrack into Maine voters' minds could turn the tide. Still a very tough Dem pick-up.
Also, I think bocawayne is right that a reality check is needed. Dems will not pick-up 13 seats. My list is potential battleground states. I'd say 5 Dem pick-ups would be a good night, 7-8 a GREAT night, and 10 is nearing fantasy land.
MrDoggity wrote on October 5, 2007 7:50 AM:Kibitzer is correct.
The law allows 60 votes to kill a filibuster, but it still takes 67 to override a veto (assuming all are present and vote, which rarely happens).
Having the White House is a key, as well. That gives the tie-breaking vote in the Senate to the Dems.
But with Craig coming out of the "stall", Warner, Domenici, Allard and Hagel retiring, and Dole, Sununu, Graham, Stevens, Smith and Coleman all running for their lives, and even Mitch McConnell struggling -- it is conceivable that the GOP won't even have enough seats in the Senate to mount a filibuster after the 2008 election. Which would be a real shame for them, since that's the only thing they seem capable of doing.
The only seat the Dems could conceivably lose is Landrieux in Louisiana. Even Karl Rove's BFF, Robert Novak says he expects the GOP to lose 5 seats. That means the actual number is probably twice that.
