Poll: 27% Of Republicans Would Go Third Party If Rudy Is Nominated
A new Rasmussen poll shows that a threat being presented by James Dobson and others on the Christian right — that they would support a third-party candidate if the Republicans nominate a pro-choicer — could have some real weight to it.
The poll finds that 27% of Republican voters would rather vote for a third-party Christian right candidate in a general election than vote for Rudy Giuliani — and that's in a three-way race with Hillary Clinton.
The hypothetical three-way race shows Hillary with 46% support, Rudy at 30%, and the third-party conservative with 14%. Among self-described pro-life voters, Rudy gets only 36% support, with the third-party candidate at 29% and Hillary with 23%. Not just that, but Rudy gets only 25% of pro-choice voters, with Hillary still walking away comfortably with 65%.
In short, all of Rudy's talk about how he is the most electable Republican might just fall through in practice — for every one socially liberal independent voter he picks up, he could lose two or three social conservatives to a Dobson-supported challenger.
Comments (9)
Daniel wrote on October 4, 2007 11:28 AM:In other poll news today, Clinton beats all Republicans in Florida, including Giuliani 49% to 43%.
Legalize wrote on October 4, 2007 11:37 AM:Short of Rudy withdrawing from the race, I don't see how this rift gets reconciled.
sunsin wrote on October 4, 2007 11:52 AM:Looks like the people who thought that this was just a pressure tactic underestimated the sheer stupidity of the "Christian" right wing. If they can't take the country off a cliff, they'll cheerfully drive off one themselves. To which I say, godspeed and make sure to carry plenty of gasoline so that the crash will be more like your real Master's home.
Wilderwood wrote on October 4, 2007 12:37 PM:It's Rudy who's going to run on a third party.
Denis wrote on October 4, 2007 1:27 PM:Here we go again... Once more on the Hillary cheerleading team. It would seem at least as significant would be the results of the same poll you quote that shows:
The most recent Rasmussen Reports data show that all of the most likely Democratic nominees lead their strongest prospective opponents. At this point John Edwards appears to be strongest in individual match-ups leading Giuliani by 9%, Thompson by 10%, and Romney by 11%.
It TPM has decided to be the voice of Hillary's campaign fine but please state it so we know if this is still a reliable site for factual balanced information or a part of Hillary's campaign.
The poll is interesting, but I'm skeptical that in a general election that an actual third-party candidate would garner 14 percent of the vote based largely around opposition to abortion. For example, look at how poorly the most conservative Republican candidates are currently doing in both national and state polls.
Even if this movement takes off, I suspect that most cultural conservative voters would "come home" to Giuliani by the time of the election -- regardless of who is the Democratic nominee.
Even if a third party garnered a mere 5 percent that could be enough to throw the election to the Democrat -- or at least neutralize a Nader candidacy. But I have a very hard time seeing a Perot-sized threat.
By the same token, let's remember that Dobson has a history of saber rattling to get a better deal from the party establishment. At the end of the day does it really help his cause if he abandons the party? And what kind of power can be exercised by the party establishment to bring Dobson and friends back in line?
www.votenic.com wrote on October 4, 2007 3:23 PM:2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WEEKLY POLL
Results posted Tuesday evenings at Midnight.
Daniel Lingner wrote on October 5, 2007 6:47 PM:Just vote for Ron Paul in the primaries...then the republicans will win and the Christian right will also vote. I gaurantee you if Ron Paul had fair media coverage no one would even be close to him as front runner. If he's on the ticket then the republicans can rest easy knowing they will win easily. He wins debate after debate by large margins in some cases, and has no competition in online polls.
Ken from Chicago wrote on October 6, 2007 11:22 AM:This Christian right debacle just might be the best thing that can happen to the Republican party. Oh sure, they may lose a couple election cycles but if it can pry them loose from these right wing Christian nut jobs I believe in the long run it would be worth it to them.
I for one would welcome intelligent conservative views being add to the political debate (instead of intelligent design).
So take the cure Republicans !! Rid yourselves of these religions fanatics once and for all, and I will be the first to welcome you back to reality.
