Election Central | Talking Points Memo | Who Will Win If Domenici Retires?

Who Will Win If Domenici Retires?

By Eric Kleefeld - October 3, 2007, 5:12PM

Assuming that Senator Pete Domenici will be announcing his retirement tomorrow, what is the state of play for the seat in 2008? The bottom line: This seat has to be considered as leaning Democratic, though it's far too early to make a final pronouncement.

The Republicans have a huge weakness here: The lack of a serious bench in New Mexico. In theory, the best candidate they could field would be Congresswoman Heather Wilson — but she is in fact tarred by the same U.S. Attorney scandal that has helped to drive down Domenici's political standing, and she has also taken a gung ho position on Iraq.

Beyond Wilson, there is Congressman Steve Pearce, who is probably too much of a right-winger to succeed in the political environment this cycle. And after that — nothing. New Mexico Republicans don't have even one statewide elected office or major mayoralty, are in the minority in both houses of the state legislature, and simply don't have anyone prominent who could step up.

The Democrats have a wide field of potential candidates, including Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, Congressman Tom Udall, former U.S. Attorney John Kelly, and current self-funding candidate Wiviott. Also, expect some behind-the-scenes efforts by the Dems to recruit Bill Richardson — which would have to involve him dropping out of the presidential race.

Given a favorable environment for Democrats in 2008, and if the Republicans can't find a strong candidate, an open seat in New Mexico would present a huge opportunity for Democrats to expand their majority in the Senate.

Update: The Republicans actually do have one statewide official, Commissioner of Public Lands Patrick Lyons. So perhaps the Republicans might try to recruit him.

Comments (23)

Marc wrote on October 3, 2007 5:43 PM:

I would love to see Schumer recruit Bill Richardson for this race, but I don't see it happening. While he will definitely not win the presidential nomination, I imagine he is holding out hope that he will be Hillary's VP. I would love to see Rep. Tom Udall, Albequerqe Mayor Martin Chavez or Lt. Gov. Diane Denish get into this. They could dispatch Heather Wilson handily. Plus her House seat would become open and that would be a definite Lean Dem pickup.

Teresa wrote on October 3, 2007 5:45 PM:

Bill Richardson's bumbling performances during the debates have ruined his chances for being VP.

Go home Bill and run for Senate. We need a veto proof majority.

Madorsky wrote on October 3, 2007 5:45 PM:

Nice post, Eric, but one factual correction: State Commissioner of Public Lands Patrick Lyons is a Republican.

As far as I know, though, Lyons is more technocrat than pol and would have zero interest in the Senate seat.

Of course, Bill Richardson could be an outside possibility, but I think he'd much rather play his presidential campaign out until the end and finish his gubernatorial term than go to the Senate.

Daniel wrote on October 3, 2007 5:48 PM:

Richardson would do great, but odds are he won't. He is doing as well as he could hope to in the presidential race right now. Also, he has had so many jobs, does he really want to now end up in the Senate?

jac wrote on October 3, 2007 5:54 PM:

Tom Udall made it clear months ago he was going for it if Domenici retired. I'm pretty sure the Party will clear the field for him, as he is a safe seat in Congress.

Heather Wilson will probably prefer to lose a Senate race, than to lose to Patricia Madrid.

So two Rs move to the D column.

Dave wrote on October 3, 2007 5:55 PM:

While I think Mayor Marty could beat Wilson, I would worry for him in a primary, he's extremely unpopular with progressives and has a great deal of anomosity with his mostly Democratic council, he even planted 3 candidates in the race to replace his greatest foes on the council, they all lost. Dems don't like him as much as the Republicans, he may as well be one.

I think Denish has her sights set on Governor, which Mayor Marty is rumored to want as well, but again, his trouble would be in a Democratic primary.

Udall and Richardson could both handily beat Wilson. Udall is in Northern New Mexico which will NEVER elect a Republican so that seat is safe.

gqmartinez wrote on October 3, 2007 5:58 PM:

I doubt Pearce would be able to win a statewide election. I think Udall has a great shot, but it will be tough for him down south (Pearce's district). What a Dem will need to do is carry the North strongly, carry Abq and do decent enough in the south. I think Chavez can do that and Udall can probably win the North by enough to offset the south. I don't know how he would do in Abq.

Personally, I'd like to see Pearce seek the nomination for the GOP (which he could probably get). This would open up NM-2 for a possible Dem pick up. Since this is my hometown district, I'd love to see that happen. NM-2 needs much better representation than Pearce.

Anonymous wrote on October 3, 2007 5:59 PM:

jac wrote on October 3, 2007 5:54 PM: Heather Wilson will probably prefer to lose a Senate race, than to lose to Patricia Madrid.

Me: If Patricia Madrid could speak, she could have won.

I agree with you as Udall as the likely candidate. I would love to see Udall win the Senate seat and Heinrich fill Wilson's. Bye-bye Heather, I've been waiting to say that since 1998!!!!

Dave wrote on October 3, 2007 6:02 PM:

gqmartinez: First, hello fellow New Mexican! Secondly, when you say you think Pearce could win the Republican nomination, is that with or without Heather in the race?

Blue in IA wrote on October 3, 2007 6:48 PM:

I know nothing about NM politics and am very grateful for the input from those that do know something. Thanks!

Any possibility that the GOP might run Iglesias? Or are the local repubs still loyal Bushies?

dhs wrote on October 3, 2007 6:49 PM:

Dave and gq. Since you guys are in NM, can you tell us whether David Iglesias might be interested in running for the Senate? And if he were, what are his chances? It would be a kind of poetic justice, and he does seem to have some integrity.

judyinnm wrote on October 3, 2007 6:50 PM:

Pearce is such a by-the-book whatever- the-Republican-leadership wants kinda guy. Like Bush, his only constituents are those who voted for him - the rest of us, be damned. All he's got going for him is daddy's oil money. No one north of Socorro has ever heard of him.

Heather will certainly be their pick.

Bill won't do it - and we don't want him to, he'd just leave to take a cabinet job, like last time.

Udall would be great - yes,even down south, here....

TEL wrote on October 3, 2007 7:00 PM:

Wilson's challenger for her House seat may not be Madrid. From the Cillizza's The Fix comments section (poster "New Mexican"):

"Wilson is moving on because of a strong challenge from Albuquerque-native and council member Dem Martin Heinrich. She did the math and realizes she will lose to him (she barely won against a terrible Patricia Madrid candidacy)."

Does anyone here know any more about Heinrich, or this race?

Dave wrote on October 3, 2007 7:18 PM:

Martin Heinrich was a city councilor in Albuquerque's most progressive district. He is popular and appears to have little baggage. The council election was just yesterday and he did not run for re-election as he his now running for Congress. His council seat was picked up by the most progressive candidate in the race, Rey Garduno. Here is his website: http://www.martinheinrich.com/

If the race is him vs. Wilson, I feel confident he will win, Wilson was almost beaten by Madrid and she was an awful candidate.

As to Iglesias, the NM Republicans most certainly will not nominate him.

I think Udall is the best candidate, he could beat Wilson, Heinrich takes her seat and another Dem. serves Northern NM in Congress.

TEL wrote on October 3, 2007 7:46 PM:

Thanks, Dave.

dhs wrote on October 3, 2007 7:51 PM:

"As to Iglesias, the NM Republicans most certainly will not nominate him."

Would Iglesias switch parties? Webb did.

Milton Deemer wrote on October 3, 2007 9:08 PM:

Rep. Tom Udall would be a natural pick, but I'll be sorry to lose him as our representative. Diane Denish should stay in the governor's race so that leaves Chavez or Madrid to take Wilson's seat. Don't count Richardson out as Secretary of State.

Happy New Mexican wrote on October 3, 2007 10:12 PM:

Forget a Republican anything in NM, for the next couple or three generations. Not gonna happen. An ugly three-legged dog could win ... so long as they weren't Republican.

Your list of Democrats that could run for those seats ought to include Hector Balderas ... and I'm sure many Indies.

Pete Sodomici is history. Heather's next. Steve Pearce isn't far behind:

http://www.beyonddelay.org/

"St. Pete" is listed first, on CREW's list of the 22 most corrupt people in Congress. Heather Wilson's face is on the front page of that report: first up, in fact, if you're viewing L-to-R. And Steve Pearce is in major doo-doo, too.

Not to mention that Pete's a biggie on a committee for natural resources; and Steve Pearce's troubles are along those lines. So Pearce just got closer to his own career's end, if Pete's not around to protect him from real investigations.

That's 3 bad guys; 3 Republicans; 3 people who better hope they won't extradite, wherever they run off to.

By the way: Heather "I just barely won, by a relative handful of votes" Wilson's running bad plays from Gonzo's book: "(I'm going to stay) for the sake of the children" TV ads are now running constantly, here in New Mexico. (Seems to me they showed up about the time she got on CREW's Beyond Delay list.) I'm already sick of seeing them. Gotta be costing major $$$, with all the times she's repeating them.

"H.W." has to be seeing the "I'm next" handwriting on the wall; given ethics investigations; the steady erosion of Republicans left in Washington, who are allowed to be on their committees, any more; and whatever's next. (Patsy Madrid has to be laughing her backside off?!)

Last but not least: where's that e-mail that turned up during AttorneyGate, that said that Domenici is as happy as a clam that Iglesias is going; and that he isn't even waiting for the body to cool? That was a great one! Just cross out a few names, and say that many folks in New Mexico are happy to see "Pajama Pete" / St. Sodomici go bye-bye; and that he need not wait for anything to cool. Any time he feels like leaving, is fine with his Clam Happy constituents!

daniel155 wrote on October 3, 2007 10:15 PM:

Perhaps the Republicans could try and find former governor Gary Johnson and persaude him to run. He served in the office before Richardson and created a stir with his call for decriminalization of marijuana. He would seem like a quirky choice but the other candidates mentioned Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce seem likely losers.

Richardson's presidential campaign doesn't seem to be going anywhere but his personality and temperament would make him someone to be reckoned with in the U.S. Senate

Happy New Mexican wrote on October 3, 2007 10:30 PM:

Dig much deeper, on Hector Balderas.

http://blogs.abqtrib.com/albq/state/2006/09/hector_balderas_wins_democrati.html

He is/was an up-and-coming Northern New Mexico Democrat, who suddenly jumped off the specific track he was on (likely at Richardson's and other's request) when an auditor's job opened up. But that wasn't what he was up to, earlier. And it doesn't have to be where he stays.

The man was going home-to-home, in the tiny town of Raton, when he was up for office. Knocking on doors himself. He's willing to work: that's for sure. And so far, he has a squeaky-clean reputation.

Andre wrote on October 4, 2007 1:30 PM:

Bill Richardson wants to be in D.C one way or another. My bet is he ditches the prez (and VP)campaign and goes for the sure thing. He'll probably wait for Heather to announce so that the rep seat will be a shoe-in for the Dem challenger. What a master stroke!

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