Polls: Huckabee Moving Up In Iowa

Comments (28)

Jake D wrote on November 14, 2007 12:07 PM:

In fact, given that the margin of error of the poll is plus or minus five, this is hardly a "surge" -- don't get me wrong, I would love to see Huckabee in the White House -- I'm just being realistic, that's all.

benjoya wrote on November 14, 2007 12:21 PM:

MOE doesn't enter into it. he's polling 7 points ahead of the last poll. no one said he's leading, just that he's doing better than before. that's what is meant by "surge"

DTM wrote on November 14, 2007 12:25 PM:

The overall trends suggest the same thing. Huckabee has been "surging"--or increasing his share--in Iowa basically all along. See here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

And here:

http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Rep-Pres-Primary.php

Jake D wrote on November 14, 2007 12:30 PM:

LOL -- a one or two point "increase in share" (using the worst-case MOE) however is hardly a "surge" -- that's all I was saying.

Tom wrote on November 14, 2007 12:30 PM:

MOE doesn't enter into it. he's polling 7 points ahead of the last poll. no one said he's leading, just that he's doing better than before. that's what is meant by "surge"

You could even say that his support in Iowa is evolving.

TQTGA wrote on November 14, 2007 12:31 PM:

Richard Land, President of the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, a "subsidiary" of the Southern Baptist Convention, was quoted today as saying:

"If I was Romney I would say that I am not the Mormon candidate for president. I am the Republican Party's candidate or I want to be ... The Mormon Church does not speak for me on matters of public policy or faith and I don't speak for them on matters of public policy and faith,"

Baptists don't pledge allegiance to a living prophet or a pope. But does anyone doubt the political influence of the Southern Baptist Convention and its press-courting leaders? Can anyone imagine Land publicly advising candidate Mike Huckabee (a Baptist) to say "I am not the Baptist candidate for president. I am the Republican Party's candidate or I want to be ... The Southern Baptist Convention does not speak for me on matters of public policy or faith and I don't speak for them on matters of public policy and faith."?

Central Square wrote on November 14, 2007 12:38 PM:

Huckabee ought to run adds in Iowa featuring 'real Iowan Republicans' who have lately switched their support from Mitt to Mike. Please, God, anyone but Snake Oil Romney (except maybe James Dobson or P. Robertson).

DTM wrote on November 14, 2007 12:41 PM:

The MOE problem is a large part of why it makes sense to look at aggregations of polls (such as the ones provided by RCP or pollster) rather than individual polls. And again, the overall picture in those aggregations is pretty obvious: he basically started off in the low single digits on average, and is now up to the high teens.

Of course, as a standard caveat: none of this tells us where he will end up, and in general we are still way too distant from the actual voting for the polls to be strongly predictive.

mds wrote on November 14, 2007 12:53 PM:

Please, God, anyone but Snake Oil Romney (except maybe James Dobson or P. Robertson).

So, someone who believes everything James Dobson does is okay, just as long as it isn't actually Dobson? Because a thin-skinned, ethically-challenged, anti-gay, anti-choice Arkansas fundamentalist Baptist who thinks evolution is a satanic lie, and who was stupid or vicious enough to get Wayne Dumond released, wouldn't be anywhere on my list, either. But goddamn, he sure is folksy. (Heads up for those who would love to have a beer with him: he's another one who can't drink alcohol.)

Jake D wrote on November 14, 2007 12:59 PM:

DTM:

Not just that, but specifically the CBS/NYT polling was spread out over ten days, and very eventful days they were. By the time they got to the 11th, the people they asked on the 2nd could have easily changed their minds. You guys might was well pull out a Magic 8-Ball and a Ouija Board and argue over the meaning of the results. It would probably be more productive.

Andrew P wrote on November 14, 2007 1:02 PM:

Jake D, do you have an actual job, or do you get paid to troll around TPM comment boards all day playing contrarian?

Just wondering, is all

Jake D wrote on November 14, 2007 1:08 PM:

Andrew:

I wish I got paid to post -- I'm retired, so I have plenty of time to waste here.

Anonymous wrote on November 14, 2007 1:23 PM:

Yes Jake sucks off the democrat teat while supporting neocons who want him to live in the street. Whats the definition of insanity? Look in a mirror Jake.

Anonymous wrote on November 14, 2007 2:14 PM:

feel the Wayne Dumond-mentum!!!

Antid Oto wrote on November 14, 2007 2:20 PM:

LOL -- a one or two point "increase in share" (using the worst-case MOE) however is hardly a "surge" -- that's all I was saying.

I don't think you're understanding margin of error correctly. A margin of error of 5 points does not mean that there's an equal probability that his true support is anywhere within that five-point margin. It just means that the bell-shaped distribution is 5 points to either side. An increase of 7 points is much more likely to be meaningful than not when the MOE is 5 points.

The press flunks this statistics quiz all the time, BTW.

Antid Oto wrote on November 14, 2007 2:22 PM:

LOL -- a one or two point "increase in share" (using the worst-case MOE) however is hardly a "surge" -- that's all I was saying.

I don't think you're understanding margin of error correctly. It doesn't mean an equal probability that the real number is anywhere within that span. It's a normal distribution. An increase of 7 points with a 5-point margin of error means a high probability of real movement.

The press gets this statistics quiz wrong all the time, btw.

Antid Oto wrote on November 14, 2007 2:23 PM:

Also Greg Sargent gets it wrong here

Given that the margin of error of the poll is plus or minus five, that puts Huckabee squarely in contention for first place.

so you're hardly alone.

Antid Oto wrote on November 14, 2007 2:24 PM:

Yikes. Sorry.

gqmartinez wrote on November 14, 2007 2:40 PM:

Thanks for pointing out the basic statistics. It's shocking how uninformed people are about basic concepts of statistics. I guess that helps people interpret polls to their hearts content. However, Huckabee's increase in the polls seems real based on the conglomeration of polls. (It was also something predictable, even if people would laugh at me when I brought it up in May.)

DTM is right about the polls being amenable to change. The question is, what sort of events can radically change the shape of the field. In 2004, Kerry didn't show up out of nowhere. He dumped in a lot of his own money and opted out of public financing (which was a HUGE argument for his candidacy). Also, Gephardt helped to take down Dean and open up more space for Kerry.

I don't see as much happening on the Dem side that can radically alter Hillary's lock on about 35% of the nationwide vote. Hillary was never expected to win Iowa while Edwards was--him winning won't help him much, IMO. An Obama win in Iowa may help him--definitely more than it would help Edwards--but I don't think that is jolting enough. Richardson, Biden, or Dodd perhaps might be--or a really, really poor showing by Hillary.

Jane wrote on November 14, 2007 2:49 PM:

I've tried hard to figure out which of the Rethug candidates would be the least damaging President. I set a minimal qualification of being willing to hold fair elections. So far only McCain is conceivable. Huckabee seemed possible on moralistic grounds but then I learned that he trashed his administration's hard drives on the way out the door to the tune of some $350,000. Guess he had something to hide.

MikeJones wrote on November 14, 2007 3:41 PM:

I live in Iowa. I can tell you that Huckabee is for real here. He has been gaining ever since placing at the Ames Straw Poll.

Expect Huckabee to win or finish a close second to Romney in Iowa.

Anonymous wrote on November 14, 2007 4:13 PM:

"Jake D wrote on November 14, 2007 1:08 PM:

Andrew:

I wish I got paid to post -- I'm retired, so I have plenty of time to waste here."

c'mon Jake.

There's bingo cards crying out for tokens;boards wanting to be suffled, and the like.

While you're waiting to die, why not do it somewhere congenial?

jollyroger wrote on November 14, 2007 4:16 PM:

"Jake D wrote on November 14, 2007 1:08 PM:

Andrew:

I wish I got paid to post -- I'm retired, so I have plenty of time to waste here."

c'mon Jake.

There's bingo cards crying out for tokens;boards wanting to be shuffled, and the like.

While you're waiting to die, why not do it somewhere congenial?

DTM wrote on November 14, 2007 7:16 PM:

gqmartinez,

In hindsight it is always easier to come up with a plausible narrative to explain what happened. The tough thing is doing it without the benefit of hindsight.

Indeed, I recall all the "Kerry is DOA" coverage around this time back in 2003 (particularly after he ended up below Sharpton in some polls). In hindsight we know what happened, but at the time I don't recall a lot of people predicting it.

So I am happy to admit I have no real idea what will happen this time. I do predict, however, that with the benefit of hindsight the outcome will seem a lot more obvious--whatever it happens to be.

CalD wrote on November 14, 2007 8:46 PM:

I said probably two months ago that I hoped Rudy and Mitt would spare a little time off beating on each other to strangle baby Huck in the cradle before he had a chance to grow. Luckily, he has not exactly shown any signs of setting NH or SC on fire... yet.

Jake D wrote on November 15, 2007 12:01 AM:

at least Greg changed "surge"

Jake D wrote on November 15, 2007 10:55 AM:

". . . strangle baby Huck in the cradle"

Sorry, but that doesn't come second nature to most Republicans.

runescape money wrote on December 6, 2007 2:50 AM:

runescape money runescape gold runescape money runescape gold wow power leveling wow powerleveling Warcraft Power Leveling Warcraft PowerLeveling buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape items runescape gold runescape accounts runescape gp dofus kamas buy dofus kamas Guild Wars Gold buy Guild Wars Gold runescape accounts buy runescape accounts runescape lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold runescape money runescape power leveling runescape money runescape gold dofus kamas cheap runescape money cheap runescape gold Hellgate Palladium Hellgate London Palladium Hellgate money Tabula Rasa gold tabula rasa money lotro gold
buy lotro gold Tabula Rasa Credit
Tabula Rasa Credits
eve">http://www.vgoldseller.com/eve-online-c-892.html">eve isk
eve">http://www.vgoldseller.com/eve-online-c-892.html">eve online isk
eve">http://www.vgoldsupply.com/eve-online-c-1191.html">eve isk
eve">http://www.vgoldsupply.com/eve-online-c-1191.html">eve online isk

Post a comment

Name:
Email Address:
URL:
	Remember personal info?
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)