Poll: In New Hampshire, Romney Rising While Rudy Drops Fast
A CNN poll out of New Hampshire released today finds Mitt Romney increasing his lead and Rudy dropping fast. It finds Romney at 33%, John McCain at 18%, and Rudy in third at 16%.
That's a big swing in Romney's favor, and a dramatic slide in Rudy's fortunes. A CNN poll of the state in September found Romney and Rudy deadlocked at 25%-24%. Today's poll finds that Romney jumped eight points, while Rudy dropped the same amount.
Though the Rudy campaign is claiming that they don't need to win the early primary states, Rudy's precipitous drop in the state might explain why his campaign decided to hit the 9/11 panic button in recent days, sending out a mailing in the state trumpeting his 9/11 heroism. It also helps explain why Rudy just hit the airwaves in New Hampshire, too.
In another interesting finding in today's CNN poll, Fred Thompson has skidded badly, and is now in sixth place with four percent, behind libertarian Congressman Ron Paul, who has eight percent.
Comments (41)
CT Voter wrote on November 19, 2007 4:47 PM:Guess that whole "I'm really a fan of the Red Sox even though I've got four World Series Yankees rings" thingie he had going on didn't quite stick.
But hey, now that the NY Post tells me that Rudy, in a dramatic change from prior behavior, will now admit his personal courage and heroism and wonderfulness during 9/11, maybe these polls will shift right back...
Teresa wrote on November 19, 2007 5:17 PM:But Chris Matthews who hates Romney and has a man crush on Rudy will still insist tonight that Rudy is the one to beat for the GOP nomination.
Robert Johnson wrote on November 19, 2007 5:24 PM:Yes, Go Ron Paul! He is climbing up that ladder of registered republicans! Now let's tally the independents and he winds up in first place!
Americans, join us on December 16th as we again make fundraising history. Pledge to donate $100 to Ron Paul at www.TeaParty07.com.
lestatdelc wrote on November 19, 2007 5:28 PM:I think that the ones to watch out for on the GOP side will be Romney and Huckabee, particularly the later. What shocks me moist is that both McCain, Paul and Guliani have more than double the "will not vote for under any circumstances" of the GOP voters polled. He actually has some of the lower "will not for for under any circumstances"' of all of them. I think the "Mormonism" making Romney a non-starter is not as real a dynamic as many buy into.
Between improving in IA and NH, both Romney and Huckabee are on the upward polling in both states, I think that the Dems ignore them at their peril.
lestatdelc wrote on November 19, 2007 5:34 PM:"What shocks me moist..." ?
ugh..
"What shocks me most..."
Nothing like a little accidental typo humor.
jolly ranchero wrote on November 19, 2007 5:43 PM:Guiliani is the new Bush. He will pull out any and all stops to "fix" this. I expect either just insanely negative TV ads, or some outrageous new claim in some stump speech.
I get the feeling we're about to hear about Romney's previously unknown black baby.
pm hughes wrote on November 19, 2007 5:51 PM:thompson is toast...as is Rudy...there is no recovery from their errors...but what are we left with? Romney can never win the red south...the Arkansas governor looks good to the die hards...but McCain seems to be the natural fall out...the world is not pretty.
gqmartinez wrote on November 19, 2007 5:53 PM:I kept telling people to watch out for Huckabee and McCain. McCain has been out of the limelight for some time so many of his more egregious pandering have been conveniently forgotten. Anyone who thought Giuliania would be a really strong GOP primary candidate had to have glossed over his significant weaknesses. His decline is occurring despite the fact that he is being given free pass after free pass on numerous issues. Romney suffers many of the similar weaknesses as Giuliani. McCain has the ability to sneak in in the primary and be in good position for a general election, since he can still be caricatured as the "outsider" since all attention has been on Giuliani, Romney and Thompson. Huckabee seems to have too fully embraced the anti-evolution crowd. That probably doesn't help him in the long run. But he'll probably win Iowa.
mikeel wrote on November 19, 2007 6:13 PM:What will happen is Huckabee takes Iowa, which will doom Romney, and McCain takes out Giuliani in New Hampshire.
South Carolina becomes the key GOP state.
If McCain wins that, he is on his way to the presidency because I don't any Democrat beating him.
It was only a matter of time that people
came to see Rudy Guliani as just more of the same - or worse - not because of his positions but because of his attitude.
When bush lies he whispers (check it out).
When Guliani lies his eyes dart back and forth.
And lets not forget they were both "on guard" during the 9-11 attack. They were the ones who where supposed to be watchfull. The attack occured while they were in office - I repeat - the attack occured while they were in office.
20 idiots got horribly lucky and played Bush and Guliani for fools.
But the American people will not be fooled by whispers and darting eyes this time.
I also see the drama in NH as being, how well does Ron Paul do?
If Ron Paul finishes first, I think you can put a fork in the GOP in 2008. If there's a plurality of Republicans eager to disown the Bush legacy it's hard to see how the party campaigns for POTUS or Congress.
And the problem will be hard for the media to ignore, if Paul finishes first.
If Paul finishes second or higher--maybe even a strong third--look for the GOP establishment to freak out.
The will push whoever they perceive to be the candidate able to close the deal quickly to end media questions about how many Republicans oppose the Iraq occupation and other Bush policies.
abiodun wrote on November 19, 2007 6:34 PM:As usual, Matthews had much to say on Obama rise but not Giuliani's slide. He also had much to add on Novak's non-story, but could not for the life of him "understand" Regan's suit! He got a wedgie when one of his guests dare suggest the traditional press'destruction of Gore in 2000.
ConnectiGoat wrote on November 19, 2007 6:36 PM:Rudy keeps talking about how he was responsible for the safety of millions of people in NYC. More and more people seem to be realizing that even if that were true, it was true BEFORE 9/11 also.
And as we get nearer to the caucuses and primaries, people start to get serious about who they're really willing to spend their vote on. It makes sense to me that polls are swinging towards McCain.
The GOP establishment will not freak out of Paul gaining anything. The cross-tabs in this poll point to the same thing found in other polls. 61% of the GOP will NEVER vote for Paul. Paul will pull libertarian and NAV voters and actually pulls more disaffected Reagan Dems than GOPers. Romney has better "will never vote for under any circumstances" than Guliani, McCain, Thompson and Paul. So pinning hopes that he is electoral poison in the red south is not a safe bet.
That said, Huckabee is the one to really watch out for. His numbers are beginning to become a factor in IA, and if he places in the running in NH, the GOP base will embrace him with open arms. He has the resumé and the personal appeal factor to win over the party and be a serious threat to win in the General. He comes across as personable, level-headed (while being a wingnut underneath) and a genial guy. He has that "would not make a bad neighbor" thing going for him.
(note he is anti-ethical to everything I belie in, but I am simply calling it how I see it)
Paul is a non-starter and will be a fringe Anderson-I run (at best) which will not hurt the GOP in the end. Again, Huckabee is really the one to worry about.
Brian wrote on November 19, 2007 6:36 PM:Indeed Carl N. Paul is the ignored factor here. The Gop Is toast, he is there to remind them that they had a base once upon a time.
Paul Revere wrote on November 19, 2007 6:41 PM:If we study this Zogby poll we can see that Romney is up 33% while Rudy is down 25% and McCain is down 45%. If the media was fair and balanced and not corporate owned they might have noticed that Ron Paul's support in NH rose 700%.
Zogby Republican poll
Nov 10 Apr. 12
Giuliani 37% 28%
Romney 20% 15%
Thompson 13% 7%
McCain 8% 15%
Paul 7% 1%
Huckabee 5% 1%
Hunter 1% 1%
Tancredo
Not sure 16% 15%
This news report does not even mention Dr. Paul. Whats up with that?
Rudy's dropping in NH. Hmmm? That supports my hypothesis that statements from his campaign that he didn't need victories in NH & IA to win the nomination, were nothing more than an attempt to inoculate the campaign against a fatal drop in national support based on those losses. In other words, losses in those states would trigger a large loss of confidence in his candidacy, leading to weakness in the following primaries, likely costing him the nomination. By preempting the issue, and claiming the states were not necessary in his strategy, the campaign is hoping to prevent that from happening.
p_lukasiak wrote on November 19, 2007 6:45 PM:Candidates don't "fall fast" for no good reason -- and in this case, I think the reason is the reporting that Rudy wasn't going to campaign in New Hampshire -- so his support went elsewhere.
But I think that changes back with a few appearances in the state, and a couple of ad buys.
Marc wrote on November 19, 2007 6:49 PM:If I had to predict the primary results today, I'd say it's going to be...
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Giuliani
4. Paul
5. Thompson or Huckabee
I'll also add that there's a distinct possibility Paul could overtake Giuliani for third place.
votenic wrote on November 19, 2007 7:41 PM:2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll
http://www.votenic.com
The Only Poll That Matters.
Results Posted Every Tuesday Evening.
If Rudy doesn't get momentum, and take the nomination, McCain will do a "Dole", and get it.
Romney is unelectable. Period.
gao xia en wrote on November 19, 2007 8:14 PM:Huckabee, McCain, and Thompson have serious cash flow problems. I see Romney first, Paul second, McCain third, and Huckabee and Thompson out.
lestatdelc wrote on November 19, 2007 9:00 PM:Huckabee is currently Second in Iowa after Romney, and is moving up in NH as well. Paul will go third party before he ever gets close to the nom, and Thompson has more double what McCain has in cash-on-hand and yet Huckabee is out polling both COMBINED in IA and ahead of Thompson NH.
don de drain wrote on November 19, 2007 9:48 PM:I think there is a reasonable chance that the Republican nominee will be someone other than those now actively seeking the Republican nomination. Every one of the active Republican candidates has significant flaws in the eyes of a significant number of Republicans. Look for someone to "come out of left field" in an effort to "energize" the Republicans. If you are a history buff, look to the nomination of James Garfield as a precedent of sorts. (Anyone who can, without looking it up, name the number of ballots it took for Garfield to get the nomination, gets a free trip to the next Republican convention.)
SocraticGadfly wrote on November 19, 2007 10:03 PM:I said on my blog that I wouldn't be surprised if Paul cracks double digits in NH.
Nor would I be surprised if McCain does at least as well in SC as NH.
At that point, could Rudy be the new Phil Gramm of Republican primary elections?
Violently Opposed To War wrote on November 20, 2007 12:02 AM:Does this mean that TPM might actually focus on the real threat in 2008 -- Romney? Or will the Giuliani obsession continue?
Zorba wrote on November 20, 2007 12:02 AM:Romney is OK to me and I would vote him. People thought his Norman religion would hurt but I think it helps him. Because they are all good people that I know. I remember the Clintons were not very religion and the country had problems under their rule.
Nancy Irving wrote on November 20, 2007 12:26 AM:Yeah, bring in the Normans. William the Conquerer for president!
Norbert wrote on November 20, 2007 1:03 AM:mikeel is correct. I wouldn't want to overreact to one bad poll for Giuliani but I do think Huckabee and Mccain are going to give the other two a real run for their money. (Thompson will wander off into a corn field or something). Thompson's supporters, sensing their guy is a flop may switch to Huckabee. Others will look to the regular polls that show Mccain beating any Dem in the general and it could come down to a battle between the Christianists and the other half of the Republican party.
Zorba wrote on November 20, 2007 3:10 AM:Rudy Guliuani is no Reagan. He's too liberal and not conservtive like Reagan is. Rudy does really good on 911 and clean up NY porn and wipers shake down. But we need some new in white House not another liberal like Bush hid but a conservtie like Reagan. The democrat are our Berlin wall. We must tear up that wll!
Ken in Missouri wrote on November 20, 2007 3:48 AM:Nancy Irving, I love your sense of humor!!
I know this may sound weird but more I listen to Ron Paul, the better I like what he says. Let me rephrase that, Ron Paul seems to be the only one SAYING anything about strengthening the dollar, reining in the Fed, and reestablishing Constitutional rights. If I'm going to be ruled over by a government, let it be Paul's. Would a return to sanity be so bad? Yeah, I know, it's more complicated than that. Well, we are the ones who've complicated it and we are the ones who need to back off. Then maybe third world zealots won't be so compelled to fly airplanes into our buildings.
Why are we forced to suffer the indignity of having two parties filled with a bunch of liberal progressives?
Why do so many of the candidates want to bankrupt our country so the rest of the world can prosper at our expensive while we foot half the global security bill?
I want to be proud to vote for a conservative who believes in low taxes, smaller government and federalism.
I want someone who is going to help rescue the dollar from becoming the American peso.
Sadly, the only man who fits that bill is Ron Paul.
EF wrote on November 20, 2007 4:37 AM:Why are we forced to suffer the indignity of having two parties filled with a bunch of liberal progressives?
Why do so many of the candidates want to bankrupt our country so the rest of the world can prosper at our expensive while we foot half the global security bill?
I want to be proud to vote for a conservative who believes in low taxes, smaller government and federalism.
I want someone who is going to help rescue the dollar from becoming the American peso.
Sadly, the only man who fits that bill is Ron Paul.
Michael Toth wrote on November 20, 2007 8:14 AM:President Ron Paul. I like the sound of that. When will you all wake up and realize we the people want Ron Paul.
Dr. Paul cured my hopelessness. He'll cure you too and only charge you one vote.
Rudy cleaned up "NY porn and window washers". Both were a real impediment to governance and a threat to civilization, alright. Get a grip. Please.
Guiliani's political demise. Pure schadenfreude.
jorge999 wrote on November 20, 2007 9:38 AM:
A very important yet underreported question re the New Hampshire primary concerns the independents who can choose EITHER primary ballot.
Will they be drawn to the republican race as they were in 2000 (giving McCain the victory)? If so, who will be the republican beneficiary? McCain again? Ron Paul? ...and, What democrat would benefit from a 'purer' democratic vote
-ie. if the independents choose repub ballots?
...OR... will they select democratic ballots? and if they do, which democrat and which republican benefit?
I would vote for Ron Paul if I were as naive as those who want corporate America to control our citizens even more than they do now!
His LIBERTARIAN policies would destroy the middle class completely and his economic policies would make our nation even more racist, homophobic and isolationist than it is already!
But I am glad you are voting for him-
that will insure that America WILL GET a responsible President this time-
NOT a Republican or a Libertarian!
Nancy Irving: thanks for the laugh!
Bring on William the Conqueror, indeed!
isles585 wrote on November 20, 2007 11:58 AM:Has anyone considered Rudy's drop to be directly related to actually knowing him. The only states where strong advertising is going on is Iowa and NH. These people have now learned what an A-hole Rudy really is. When campaigning gets hot and heavy in the Feb. 5th states they too will learn about Mr. 9/11 and will turn off to him too.
immigrant wrote on November 20, 2007 12:04 PM:Ron Paul is going to make things happen. As long as people believe in the constitution and the concept of America then Ron Paul will succeed. Hell we might even get the national polls to take a stab at being accurate through accurate methodology. It looks like Ron Paul more accurately is at about 30 to 33 percent nationwide(counting those who DONT have landlines,dems and indies who have switched over and reps who didn’t vote last time)….which explains why the mainstream FCC govt run media is shaking in their boots at the prospect of a constitutional govt and giving misleading restricted demographic polling numbers. Its embarassing to see so many news agencies make up pure nonsense to mislead people. Ron Paul is going to win. The bigger the media offensive against him the stronger the chance of him being president.
American Revolution 2.0 is going to shock the world, there’s simply no doubt about it.
ps- Other poll numbers indicate RON PAUL IS ALREADY UP TO 18%....
www.ronpaul2008.com
Mike wrote on November 20, 2007 2:29 PM:Bush wispers when he lies.
Gulianis eyes dart back and forth.
