Poll: "Undecided" Running Away With South Carolina Dem Race
In the intense competition in South Carolina between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, as well as native son John Edwards, the big winner in the new Clemson University poll is ... undecided, with a whopping 49% support. As for the actual candidates, Hillary leads with 19%, in a statistical dead heat with Barack Obama's 17%, and John Edwards at 12%. The margin of error is ±4.62%. In the last Clemson poll in early September, Hillary had 26%, Obama 16%, and Edwards 10%.
Hillary has had a bigger lead in other recent South Carolina polls, with far less undecideds — possibly meaning that some of her support in those is soft, made up of people who are simply leaning her way. The state has come to be considered a must-win for Barack Obama, due to the fact that African-Americans are expected to make up about half of the Democratic electorate.
Comments (17)
dajafi wrote on November 28, 2007 2:08 PM:This state is the distillation of how I view the entire race. If there were one strong "not-Hillary" candidate, he'd have the huge edge--here and most everywhere else. But Edwards and Obama are in each other's way. I like them both (though I prefer Obama), but honestly I wish one of them would drop and let the other be Not-Hillary.
At this point, I have a hunch Obama wins Iowa in a close race and Clinton wins New Hampshire fairly easily. So SC is an enormously big deal. If Our Lady of Perpetual Triangulation wins SC with a plurality of 35-40 percent, the Clinton-fixated media will jump on the inevitability bandwagon, probably ending the game on Feb. 5.
DTM wrote on November 28, 2007 2:12 PM:It is unusual to get that many official undecideds, but in general we already knew that a lot of people naming a candidate in these polls are still just "leaning" and are willing to consider other candidates (polls in other early states which ask about this issue specifically show the same thing). That is part of why things can change so rapidly in the last few days before each particular primary, including in light of results in earlier states: typically there just isn't much truly "hard" support in presidential primaries.
Which in turn makes sense: the top candidates all tend to be viewed favorably by most members of their own party, so it isn't surprising people are willing to switch around their support relatively freely (as compared to a general election where partisanship plays a major role).
Madorsky wrote on November 28, 2007 3:10 PM:To me, the high number of undecideds means SC will definitely ratify the front-runner if the same candidate wins NH and IA, thereby finzalizing the nominee.
If Obama wins Iowa and Hillary wins New Hamshire, look for a battle royale in SC.
AJ wrote on November 28, 2007 3:20 PM:A couple of interesting things out of this poll, one is the trend line, with Hillary dropping and both Obama and Edwards seeming to move up (though obviously marginally). The second is Eric's point about soft support, which I think is important in a primary that is going to be 4th, and therefore, subject to a great deal of reshuffling.
D wrote on November 28, 2007 3:28 PM:I love to see a "first and second choice" poll: I agree that Edwards and Obama are splitting the anti-Clinton vote (unfortunately), and if one of them dropped out the other would have 10+ points on Hillary in Iowa, NH, and SC.
jwb81 wrote on November 28, 2007 3:36 PM:Statements such as the last sentence of this post are what have driven me away from the MSM. I'd like to think that if TPM relies on received wisdom, you would do a much better job backing it up...
"The state has come to be considered a must-win for Barack Obama, due to the fact that African-Americans are expected to make up about half of the Democratic electorate."
Vermonter wrote on November 28, 2007 3:38 PM:Who considers SC a "must-win" for Obama?
I haven't yet heard that bit of expectation setting...
Richard L. Adlof wrote on November 28, 2007 4:15 PM:Here's to hoping Clinton keeps up the 'Oh poor old pitiful me' campaign . . . It seems to be working so well for her.
More and more each and every day, I pray that Clinton and Guiliani lose their respective Primaries then run together on a Connecticutt for Lieberman ticket.
phil james wrote on November 28, 2007 4:27 PM:Funny, I thought the state was considered a must-win for Hillary since more than half the Democratic voters are women. I could be wrong. It could be a must-win for Edwards because 95 percent of the Dem voters have Southern drawls. That's about as relevant as the first two criteria.
AJ wrote on November 28, 2007 4:58 PM:I think those who are claiming Obama and Edwards are splitting some 'anti-Clinton' vote are taking a net-centric view. South Carolina is the one state where Edwards and Obama are most likely to be complimentary to each other, if one looks at the internals from the poll it doesn't look like Obama and Edwards are drawing from the same voters:
As expected, Obama is drawing heavily from this group: more than three-quarters of his supporters are African-American. Clinton is drawing over half her support from this cohort as well.
They don't say it explicitly, but Obama and Clinton appear to be neck and neck with African Americans. While Edwards is is probably a fairly close second among white South Carolina Dems and Obama third. Point being, it is certainly no guarantee that either would pick up all or even most of the other's support.
liz wrote on November 28, 2007 5:38 PM:I live in South Carolina and the only signs and bumper stickers I consistantly see are for Ron Paul. He is going to run away with the Republican vote. The Dem vote depends on who shows up to vote. There is little interest shown around here other than Ron Paul ... people are voting for CHANGE
mcc wrote on November 28, 2007 6:19 PM:liz:
...meanwhile in the actual *polling* linked at the top of this, Ron Paul in SC is polling 6% of the Republican electorate, putting him in... sixth place. Now, he has improved in his polling in the the last few months! But not quite as much as, say, Huckabee has over the same period.
Paul does have some very enthusiastic supporters, something practically no other candidate of either party can really be said to have at this point in the cycle. But there just aren't very many of these supporters, and it's ultimately votes, not lawn signs, that make an impact in an election.
I don't see where the recipe for "change" lies in all this...
wes2 wrote on November 28, 2007 6:41 PM:What AJ said.
I haven't seen ANY polling data that supports the assumption, common here and elsewhere in the blogosphere, that Obama and Edwards are taking each others' supporters and that if only one would drop out, the other would be in a position to take out Hillary.
That may make sense for those of us who are policy-centric in our view of the candidates, but if you think in terms of demographics, it's much more likely that if many African-Americans are supporting Obama, and older whites are supporting Edwards, either one dropping out would INCREASE Hillary's lead.
hancock wrote on November 28, 2007 10:05 PM:
Ron Paul's supporters are what I call The Lord of the Flies crowd--adolescent boys between the ages of 30-45.
hancock
votenic wrote on November 28, 2007 10:31 PM:2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll
The Only Poll That Matters.
Results Posted Every Tuesday Evening.
Obama has moved up in a big way to be basically tied with Hillary Clinton. this is news.
The momentum is undoubtedly in Obama's favor which could result in an Iowa win. If that happens, he will be in a good place to win New Hampshire in 6 weeks. Then it could be dominos. But, without a doubt Iowa is first and very important.
A lot can happen in a month though - good, bad or ugly for any campaign...
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