Polls: McCain Gaining In Iowa, New Hampshire
New polling from Rasmussen shows John McCain surging in both Iowa and New Hampshire, while Mike Huckabee has lost some of his previous advantages.
In Iowa, Huckabee now has a narrow lead of 28% to Romney's 27%, with McCain now in third with 14%. That's a huge change from their last poll a week ago, when Huckabee had 39%, Romney 23% and McCain was in fifth place at 6%.
In New Hampshire, Romney has 31%, McCain 27%, Rudy Giuliani 13%, and Huckabee 11%. A week ago, it was Romney 33%, McCain 18%, Giuliani 15%, and Huckabee 14%.
On the Democratic side in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton has 31% to Barack Obama's 28%, with John Edwards at 18%. A week ago it was Obama 31%, Hillary 28%, and Edwards 17%.
Comments (29)
The Dog wrote on December 19, 2007 1:03 PM:Huckabee condoned the torture of a dog for cryin out load
and he let rapist free to murder
does not sound like a family values man to me
The only thing his family values is apparently big macs
The Oprah effect has worn off? Or at least the media hype related to it. Interesting....
Kefa wrote on December 19, 2007 1:21 PM:Why not post the CNN polling too. Just a question Eric.
Greg DeLassus wrote on December 19, 2007 1:25 PM:Why not post the CNN polling too. Just a question Eric.
Did you miss it? He already did:
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/12/poll_hillary_regains_her_edge_in_new_hampshire.php
M wrote on December 19, 2007 1:32 PM:On margins of error:
I think polling so far suggests Obama may have a slight advantage in iowa. In NH, I think it is realistic to say Clinton may have a larger advantage, but still within margin of error. Same with South Carolina.
Of course, anything after Iowa still doesn't matter until the caucus tallies are determined. Hence, all are doubling down on Iowa.
Trendlines will show these ideas out. Iowa is everything. And, truly, it is still up for grabs.
BTW, I really enjoyed Huck's and Barack's Xmas ads. Very human. I assume HRC will also provide her own.
Greg DeLassus ..thanks
The Washpost/ABCNews polls states HRC/BHO race is tied in Iowa.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071219/ts_nm/usa_politics_iowa_dc;_ylt=AjHICCHoZ1fobl8iDVmKmqas0NUE
Watch the trend lines, already. Anyone can pick out any poll they like to show their candidate ahead.
Besides, any CNN poll is inherently biased. Have you SEEN their coverage of the race? Yes, I'm an Obama supporter, and MSNBC is no better for my candidate, but SERIOUSLY! Did you watch the Nevada debate and the aftermath?
I also find it funny that FixedNoise also had their anointed candidate, who promptly went into downward spiral mode, thanks in large part to your friends at Talking Points Memo.
By the way, if I have not said it yet (and while I knock on wood), should Giuliani die a quick death in the Republican Primary, I would have to say that America owes TPM, yet again, a very large debt of gratitude. Thanks a bunch, seriously! Keep up the great work!
CalD wrote on December 19, 2007 1:50 PM:Is this another one of his one-day polls? I don't know why he does that. Nobody does that. Too prone to instability.
Keith wrote on December 19, 2007 1:56 PM:When did 33% and 29% (Wash/ABC Poll) equal a tie?
DOG - DOG - DOG - DOG - GOT IT wrote on December 19, 2007 1:59 PM:Trend lines ?????
Polls ?????
GET YOUR HEADS OUT OF YOUR A#@%& PEOPLE
His son tortured a dog
not a poll,not a trend line
a tortured dog
hung by it's neck
stoned
it's throught slit
And Huckabee changed the record so his son would not be punished
john mccutchen wrote on December 19, 2007 2:04 PM:Obama Gains On Hillary Clinton's robust 25-point lead in California has been cut nearly in half, Field poll shows.
Primary by primary
Congressional district by congressional district
Obama Precinct Captain conference call tonight!
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/12/19/MN7HU0NJT.DTL&tsp=1
M wrote on December 19, 2007 2:07 PM:Mr. Dog Troll Man,
I was talking about Democratics. You rethugs can fret all you want about bestiality or animal cruelty. Personally, those issues, like the Republican Party, are not my cup of tea.
In addition, I am not surprised a Republican governor would look to get his son off the hook for a crime. Par for the course (see: TPM coverage of Blackwater).
Merry Christmas!
JM wrote on December 19, 2007 2:08 PM:Kick butt, man. I'm looking forward to serving in the Obama Administration.
DTM wrote on December 19, 2007 2:09 PM:The amusing thing (at least to me) is that the polls are only going to get more volatile as time goes on, at least until the nominations are effectively settled. So as chaotic as it may seem now, it is only going to get worse.
Michael wrote on December 19, 2007 2:13 PM:Looking at the trend lines in Iowa and NH and then to a lesser extent SC and national, its hard not to conclude that Obama is basically kicking Hillary's ass at campaigning. 2 months ago she lead everywhere, he was stagnant, she was rising. Everywhere.
Then, he decided to close the deal, and voters started paying attention, and since then, he's basically rocketed up and she's plummeted. This trend bears out in all 4 pictures: Iowa, NH, SC, nationally (though she's managed to stay somewhat steady in SC)
Things are looking up for Obama. The campaign must be feeling...buoyant.
CalD wrote on December 19, 2007 2:28 PM:Rasmussen's results are particularly volatile lately since he's taken to doing one-day polls in some races, like this ioone. IMHO, it's irresponsible.
Greg DeLassus wrote on December 19, 2007 2:32 PM:Rasmussen's results are particularly volatile lately since he's taken to doing one-day polls in some races, like this ioone. IMHO, it's irresponsible.
Thanks for that worthy consideration. A point well taken, that.
DTM wrote on December 19, 2007 2:47 PM:I agree one-day polls are not a great idea when viewed in isolation, and that is certainly a good reason not to rely on just these particular polls to spot trends. But once you are just aggregating them with a bunch of other polls, I am less concerned.
votenic wrote on December 19, 2007 3:08 PM:2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll
New YouTube Video!
The Only Poll That Matters.
Results Posted Weekly Tuesday Evening At Midnight.
Uh, yeah I wouldn't put too much stock in McCain's "gains." As long as he has such a hard-on for Iraq, he never has a chance in Hell at getting into the White House.
Anonymous wrote on December 19, 2007 8:03 PM:who the hell wants to vote for someone who has given up on the concept of dignity?
Anonymous wrote on December 19, 2007 8:05 PM:if dignity's not important to you, then get aboard mccain's 'zero dignity express'!
RobbyLove wrote on December 19, 2007 8:06 PM:I'm really hoping for Huckabee to get the GOP nomination. He has so much baggage and is such a whack job there is no way he can win in the general election. Even the folks who post in the Corner at NRO are scared to death of the guy. If he gets nominated Huckleberry will lose so badly that the 1984 Mondale slaughter will look like a narrow loss in comparison.
lambert strether wrote on December 19, 2007 8:10 PM:I admire McCain's dogged persistence.
In fact, speaking of dogs, McCain's finance co-chair stood by and watched while a friend actually killed and barbecued dog. I am not making this up!
Granted, the guy was 22 and drunk at the time, and I did plenty of things at that age when I wasn't totally sober. But watching while a dog got barbecued? No.
It's not a surprise that the Republican Party turned us into a nation of torturers.
Martin Gale wrote on December 19, 2007 10:09 PM:For the past several weeks, the media have been working overtime on behalf of McCain, but the last week in particular they've been at it even more feverishly than usual. If he "exceeds expecations" in Iowa, with the Republican field being portrayed as it is, and the way he is reported on, he's going to be tough to beat. I don't understand why people have always been so quick to write him off.
Bosh wrote on December 19, 2007 10:36 PM:"I did plenty of things at that age when I wasn't totally sober. But watching while a dog got barbecued? No."
Grilled dog tastes pretty good, certainly better than dog soup. Kind of a nasty smell as it cooks though...
Don't really see what the difference is morally between eating dog and eating pig.
Matt in Costa Rica wrote on December 19, 2007 11:19 PM:Whammo! I love it.
YY wrote on December 20, 2007 12:12 AM:DREAM SCENARIO:
You know what would be absolutely hilarious??
If 3 different candidates won each of the 3 first primary states.
Iowa: Huckabee
NH: McCain
SC: Romney
Has that ever happened before?
Just how likely are the chances?
