ARG: Huck Takes The Lead In South Carolina

The final American Research Group poll for the South Carolina Republican primary shows some very wild swings in the home stretch, with Mike Huckabee taking the lead over John McCain. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday's poll:

Huckabee 33% (+10)
McCain 26% (-7)
Thompson 21% (+8)
Romney 9% (-11)
Giuliani 3% (-1)
Paul 2% (+1)

Is this poll a massive outlier, or could it be an indicator of some genuine, last-minute Huckmentum? We'll all find out Saturday night.


Comments (21)

Keith wrote on January 19, 2008 12:26 AM:

Eric:

Since it's clear that folks are still up at TPM Headquarters, would you guys please update the lead story? At least link to the Politico story pointing out that she's being a bit of a hypocrite:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Clinton_Obama_and_Reagan_Heavena_brighter_place.html


As prominently as you guys ran this story today, it seems only appropriate that you note that not only was she lying (which you note in the stories) but that she's praised Reagan in the past.

Or check out Daily Kos. He's debunked it as well.

Matt wrote on January 19, 2008 12:39 AM:

Are you kidding me?

Rudy: 9 (-11)?!

He even POLLS 9/11!

Matt wrote on January 19, 2008 12:41 AM:

Oops, I'm an idiot. That's Romney, of course.

Still, Giuliani's subliminal advertising is obviously working on me. He's a MUCH more credible 9% (-11) candidate than Romney. Where was Mitt Romney on 9% (-11)?

TheraP wrote on January 19, 2008 12:46 AM:

That's ok, Matt. Everyone who reads this will get a nice laugh first!

After all, Giuliani would prefer those numbers, wouldn't he?

NamelessFaceless wrote on January 19, 2008 12:46 AM:

Keith:

Can you hazard a guess as to why TPM refuses to post on what looks like breathtaking hypocrisy? I mean that would seem to be a pretty important part of the story, especially when you have reported relentlessly on the attacks.

Thanks for keeping on raising the issue.

Come on TPM, what's up? Why isn't this mentioned anywhere but in the comments?

Kristi wrote on January 19, 2008 12:58 AM:

Let's hope it isn't an outlier and Huckleberry wins. I think that would be good news.

Wow. TPM? wrote on January 19, 2008 1:04 AM:

Two Obama supporters said they received automated phone calls Friday evening in which the senator was described as supporting a Republican agenda.

Gregory Martin, a financial adviser in Reno, said the caller, who had a woman's voice, said she was calling to bring to his attention recent comments Obama had made "in support of the Republican Party and Bush's vision for America." The call also said Obama was in favor of storing nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain and was identified as coming from "friends of Hillary Clinton," Martin said.

Amber Erlich, an Obama volunteer from Phoenix, received a similar recorded call at the home of another volunteer in Pioche, Nev., she said. The caller, also a woman, said Obama wants to dump waste at Yucca Mountain and had called the Republican Party "the party of ideas," Erlich said.

The Clinton campaign did not immediately respond to request for comment.

joe schmoe wrote on January 19, 2008 2:32 AM:

Two Obama supporters said they received automated phone calls Friday evening in which the senator was described as supporting a Republican agenda. Gregory Martin, a financial adviser in Reno, said the caller, who had a woman's voice, said she was calling to bring to his attention recent comments Obama had made "in support of the Republican Party and Bush's vision for America." The call also said Obama was in favor of storing nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain and was identified as coming from "friends of Hillary Clinton," Martin said.

Amber Erlich, an Obama volunteer from Phoenix, received a similar recorded call at the home of another volunteer in Pioche, Nev., she said. The caller, also a woman, said Obama wants to dump waste at Yucca Mountain and had called the Republican Party "the party of ideas," Erlich said. The Clinton campaign did not immediately respond to request for comment.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080119/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_reagan

Davidson wrote on January 19, 2008 3:58 AM:

This man is going to be the GOP VP pick--at least.

Scary.

Davidson wrote on January 19, 2008 4:00 AM:

Keith,

Dude, you're wrong (the paper was wrong) She said she admired Reagan's communication skills. She did say however that she respected Bush, something Obama has said as well.

Besides, saying "Hillary said she admired Reagan, too" is never a good thing for an Obama supporter to say. He's supposed to be the anti-Hillary, remember?

Here the editor the paper is cited:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/18/212510/306/152/439202

Michael A wrote on January 19, 2008 7:22 AM:

Ok, enough with the republican posts and really who cares on this site? There have been a ton, with a ton of the b-movie actor distortions mixed in and virtually nothing about the dem race.

How about this one? California huge state and a recent poll. It's only 38-33 clinton over obama. That's only 5 points and other polls have shown a huge gap in cali. If obama can take clinton in cali, look out. Why isn't there a post on this one?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20080118/pl_rasmussen/calidem20080118;_ylt=AqNBgcP0UvCwvml2vFreZ7Ks0NUE

This hasn't even been in the poll tracker. What's up?

Keith wrote on January 19, 2008 7:41 AM:

Davidson:

Yeah I saw the dog ate my homework excuse. Sort of like the Bob Johnson comment to me, but I tend not to believe people after I learn they are liars.

And, I'll say it one more time, Obama never said that in the interview. So please, go peddle that crap over at Hillaryis44.com.

Michael A wrote on January 19, 2008 7:48 AM:

Hey Keith,

Sorry for the correction, but it is hillaryis44.org. Every person should visit this site. It is very informative and gives you an idea about the type of candidate clinton is and what kind of a government she intends to run. Do we really want this same garbage, lies and trash for 4 more years? Not me. I've been lied to by the government and politicians for 15 years now and I'm tired of it. No more.

Keith wrote on January 19, 2008 8:02 AM:

Michael A:

No problems on the correction.

Anonymous wrote on January 19, 2008 9:13 AM:

Good job, Huck! Please finish McCain off in SC.

Richard L. Adlof wrote on January 19, 2008 10:52 AM:

While you and I and the rest of reasoning America respect (and fear) Bush43 like a bag of rattlesnakes thrown into a crowd . . . Clinton gets this warm spot foe his foresight and command of executive powers and lying skills . . . All the same things that warm her cockles about Ron-dog. Clinton has been itching to let loose a nuke since she was a AuH2O Gal.

jsh1120 wrote on January 19, 2008 10:59 AM:

Too early to count those chickens, but if Huckabee manages to pull it out in SC, it will be a red letter day for Democrats. Combined with a Romney win in Nevada and it's a late (or early) Christmas.

Turnout is likely to be the key in SC, I suspect. Huck's troops will crawl to the polls if they have to. Rain and (horrors) snow may dampen the enthusiasm for McCain.

A GOP beset by a death cage match between evangelicals and everyone else will make for great TV.

Dan wrote on January 19, 2008 12:02 PM:

Check out Campaign Diaries's extensive previews of the day's festivities and a program of what to expect at what time.

audit the polls wrote on January 19, 2008 12:05 PM:

Where does American Research Group make it's money?

foreigner wrote on January 19, 2008 12:09 PM:

Well, if you pander to the evangelicals and the Confederate flag lovers, then I guess your support might rise as well over those who don't. If Huckabee wins this it will be by appealing to the basest of instincts and a definite preview that he is NOT presidential material by any stretch of the imagination.

WhiteCollar wrote on January 19, 2008 2:32 PM:

Voting machines crashing in SC. Odd, but its happening in a district that has gone to McCain in past. Think the GOP is having to fix their own primary elections as well?

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/19/voting-machine-problems-reported-in-one-south-carolina-county/

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