Biden Staffer: Our People Likely To Go For Obama
It's looking like Joe Biden's Iowa supporters might just go for Barack Obama as the second choice in precincts where their first candidate isn't viable. A consultant for Biden told the Huffington Post last night that the campaign will make a choice on where to direct their voters, but they expect them to naturally go for Obama.
"A decision will be made tomorrow about who we'll encourage our supporters to stand behind if we aren't viable in a precinct," the anonymous staffer said. "Right now, I'd guess Obama gets our support because we're more inline with his vision of foreign policy than any of the other candidates, and besides, we like him and how he's run his campaign."
Late Update: It turns out the Biden campaign won't give a second-choice instruction to their supporters. But this staffer's observations about the thinking among their supporters is still be a favorable sign for Obama.
Comments (25)
Michael A wrote on January 3, 2008 9:30 AM:I believe that I am smelling a big win here. All the signs are pointing that way. Will history be made in iowa?
M Miller wrote on January 3, 2008 9:31 AM:As time goes by, it seems like Edwards is losing his advantage that some polls has shown he has in the second-choice votes.
DRinOH wrote on January 3, 2008 9:37 AM:God, it's been so long. I forgot what it feels like to feel good about your chances going into an election.
NCSteve wrote on January 3, 2008 9:44 AM:I'm rural enough to know not to count unhatched eggs as chickens, but at this point it's looking like Obama wins unless Clinton tells her precinct captains to send enough caucusers over to Edwards to move him from third to first in any precinct where she's second to Obama after the first round.
Not suggesting anything nefarious or evil, just good clean Iowa caucus skullduggery. Hillary would rather be in third place with Edwards first than in second behind Obama. The tricky bit is not inadvertantly pushing Edwards into second overall and herself into third, which is her worst case scenario.
Sidd Finch wrote on January 3, 2008 9:44 AM:"and besides, we like him and how he's run his campaign"
man, i love the way that sounds. i don't think it's a unique perspective, either.
seanh wrote on January 3, 2008 9:44 AM:Marc Ambinder has been following this story since it was posted yesterday afternoon on the huffpo:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/caucus_day_deals.php
** There are reports that Bill Richardson and Joe Biden may ask their precinct captains to encourage supporters to vote for Obama if their candidate fails to make viability. So far as I can tell, Biden's team has NOT transmitted those instructions down the line, and no one in Bill Richardson's world will confirm or deny.
Even more interesting reports relating to the Richardson redirection of unviable votes from Iowa Independent
Richardson Set to Send Obama Second-Choice Support
http://www.iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1782
[Exclusive] Gov. Bill Richardson's campaign is expected to direct their supporters to caucus for Sen. Barack Obama in the second round of voting at Thursday's caucuses in precincts where he is not viable. Two sources familiar with the plan told Iowa Independent that the New Mexico Governor's organizers have been instructed to direct supporters to Obama in the places where they fail to reach the 15% threshold for viability.
...
Richardson would prefer an Obama victory over Clinton because a Clinton victory could end the campaign before New Hampshire voters even head to the polls. And if Edwards's numbers look weak, Richardson could head to New Hampshire as the best alternative to the top two contenders for the Democratic nomination.
In response to the original Huffpo article, though, a Richardson rep was quick to deny the rumor on openleft.
http://openleft.com/showComment.do?commentId=24139
Richardson Campaign Response (4.00 / 4)
Hi this is Joaquin with the Richardson Campaign and the rumor is false- there are no deals. These are typical last minute election shenanigans.
Joaquin H. Guerra
Richardson for President
jguerra-at-richardsonforpresidnet.com
by: Joaquin H. Guerra @ Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 23:02:36 PM CST
Obviously, this sort of plan could never really be openly acknowledged, if it existed. Hillary is still the favorite to win the nomination, and Biden/Richardson would be virtually eliminating their chances in a Clinton administration with any sort of effective endorsement of a competing candidate. Of course, the results should clear things up later tonight. If these stories end up being true, it would be a stunning coup.
chrisrowe wrote on January 3, 2008 10:03 AM:But what would Richardson want out of a Clinton administration?
He's already been in one, remember. He wants the #1 spot, but I think he'd settle for VP for Secretary of State. But lets be honest, Hillary isn't going to pick a Hispanic man as her running mate, and I don't see her picking him as Sec State.
So, Richardson has nothing to lose, really. He IS more in line with Obama, just as Biden's staff admitted they were, and probably has a much better shot at getting that Sec State position.
Biden, on the other hand, would never be Hillary's VP, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Obama/Biden ticket, it almost seems to be in the making already.
destor23 wrote on January 3, 2008 10:11 AM:This tells you something important about Obama -- Joe Biden is the most conservative Democrat running, he's the guy who helped rewrite the bankruptcy laws in favor of the banks. And he seems to have a man crush on Obama. That's because Obama isn't a real progressive, folks.
awrbb wrote on January 3, 2008 10:15 AM:"Obama isn't a real progressive, folks"
... and how do you explain Dennis Kucinich lending his second-choice support to Obama?
I suppose Gore was not a real progressive either based on his VP pick.
roo_P wrote on January 3, 2008 10:25 AM:Oh, come on now! No regurgitating HuffPo speculation even if it is good news to me :)
I am not at all certain that Biden will specifically endorse Obama although he has been gravitating that way. My guess is no instructions at all, same for Richardson.
roo_P wrote on January 3, 2008 10:29 AM:Bah, figures they would update right after I post! :)
seanh said:
Obviously, this sort of plan could never really be openly acknowledged, if it existed. Hillary is still the favorite to win the nomination, and Biden/Richardson would be virtually eliminating their chances in a Clinton administration with any sort of effective endorsement of a competing candidate.
I am not sure I find this a good line of reasoning. If the people move, it WILL be known tonight (open caucus, not secret ballot) and it is very, very unlikely that the nomination will be a done deal tomorrow morning.
M wrote on January 3, 2008 10:45 AM:So what happens if/when Clinton wins? Landslide.
I have a feeling the media is setting up Obama for a smackdown tonight. We shall see.
Democrats Against Hillary wrote on January 3, 2008 10:52 AM:"Hillary is still the favorite to win the nomination"
HA HA HA HA NO SHE'S NOT AFTER TONIGHT!!!
Elizabeth wrote on January 3, 2008 10:52 AM:>>> I wouldn't be surprised to see a Obama/Biden ticket
I truly believe that ticket would be the best thing for the country --- and better than any option we've had in a long, long, long time!
seanh wrote on January 3, 2008 10:53 AM:roo_P wrote on January 3, 2008 10:29 AM: I am not sure I find this a good line of reasoning. If the people move, it WILL be known tonight (open caucus, not secret ballot) and it is very, very unlikely that the nomination will be a done deal tomorrow morning.Actually, I completely agree. I should have expressed myself more effectively in my original post, but basically, such a shift by the second tier candidates would be pretty obvious once the results arrive later tonight for the reasons you mentioned. If the results suggest a clear pattern of second-tier candidate choices shifting to Obama across the board, it would be (as I mentioned) a shocking coup. Such a betrayal, at this stage in the game, would overturn almost everything we already think we know about this race.
Basically, it seems highly unlikely Biden or Richardson would openly, or even secretly, advocate this sort of strategy. I think it much more likely that these rumors are building from the bottom up (field officers, low level staffers, etc.), simply because Iowa isn't the endgame. Biden and Richardson have too much to lose for this sort of bargain to seem plausible.
Aimey Mays wrote on January 3, 2008 10:58 AM:this staffer is a moron. Why people like Biden? For his good look? No, for his good experience. How can anyone say Biden's foreign policy is closer to Obamamers'? Biden voted for the war as Clinton, for pete's sake! Do you expect people to go from a lot of experience to no experience at all? Count me as very suspicious!
Chino Blanco wrote on January 3, 2008 10:59 AM:There will be winners and losers, but they won't be determined by some media script that you're not privy to ... it's an election for crying out loud, votes will be counted, ain't it grand?
Keith wrote on January 3, 2008 11:23 AM:I'm with M. I think this all of this speculation RAISES expectation of an Obama romp, which if it fails to materialize, will deflate his supporters and his campaign. Richardson was so far up Clinton's pant suit during the debates, it makes the specualtion laughable. As for Biden, his contempt for the upstart Obama was never more glaring than during the Petraeus hearings. I'm just not seeing either of these guys sending supporters Obama's way (that's assuming they would go in the first place).
This speculation will do more HARM to Obama's campaign than it will help him.
ro wrote on January 3, 2008 11:33 AM:I have a feeling all these comments are coming from the white majority. Obama is not electable, when will you get it through your democratic thick skulls. He could black, Hispanic, whatever, this is not ready to elect a minority. Obama knows that, but he is not going to tell you. There is too much hatred and bigotry within our borders to allow that to happen. So take off your rose colored glasses, and get real.
Chino Blanco wrote on January 3, 2008 11:38 AM:Ro,
I'm curious. Which state do you live in?
seanh wrote on January 3, 2008 11:48 AM:god help us the day we're selecting our leaders based on the fancies of our racists and bigots.
horizonr wrote on January 3, 2008 11:54 AM:Assuming that what Richardson and Biden really want is State, it is perfectly reasonable for them to instruct their supporters to caucus for Obama in places where they are not viable, if -- and this is an important "if" -- they know that Clinton already has promised State to someone else.
Word on the street is that Clinton's "someone" for State is longtime Clinton toady Richard Holbrooke.
Holbrooke has been one of Clinton's chief lieutenants and one of her most tireless behind-the-scenes arm twisters, from the get-go. He was one of those who leaned very hard -- thuggishly hard, by some accounts -- on Democratic insiders, to lock in their early support and push the narrative that her nomination was a fait accompli.
Someone like Richard Holbrooke doesn't do that for nothing.
paDem wrote on January 3, 2008 12:45 PM:"Ro,
I'm curious. Which state do you live in?..."
The State of Denial?
roo_P wrote on January 3, 2008 1:18 PM:seanh,
Gotcha, and I agree. All of the folks thinking they may end up <15% probably have some "secret" orders in.
