Fox News: Obama Ahead By Four In New Hampshire

Comments (8)

The Caped Composer wrote on January 7, 2008 12:15 PM:

Of COURSE Fox "News" would shrink Obama's margin-- they desperately want Hillary to be the nominee, since they know that'd be the Republicans' best shot at winning this one! They can't deny the reality of the Obama bounce, but they're going to make it look smaller, as they cling to the diminishing hope that Hillary could still pull it out. Talk about the audacity of hope!

John McCutchen wrote on January 7, 2008 12:36 PM:

Can you win on dull?

By: ROGER SIMON

Difference between Obama and Clinton at Nashua High School North events is apparent: mesmerizing vs. mind-numbing.
Obama said things like: “We are one nation; we are one people; and our time for change has come.”
Clinton said things like: “I founded in the Senate the Bipartisan Manufacturing Caucus.”

John McCutchen wrote on January 7, 2008 12:37 PM:

I don't think Fox fixes polls. This is not out of line with others when viewed poll to poll (info Eric helpfully includes)

brm wrote on January 7, 2008 12:38 PM:

The DLC princess is going to get trounced
Celebrate the end of the Bush-Clinton era of politics.
The debate performance just killed her in NH. I know all the Clintonites scoffed at Luntz's focus group. But that is exactly what NH voters think of her.
Another reason is her AUMF vote. In the beginning of the campaign, she took a question on that from a NH voter, and dismissed the questioner, by saying if you dont like my vote on the AUMF, vote for someone else.

We heard you Hillary and we are going to do that tomorrow in record numbers

The Caped Composer wrote on January 7, 2008 12:41 PM:

Of COURSE Fox "News" would shrink Obama's margin-- they desperately want Hillary to be the nominee, since they know that'd be the Republicans' best shot at winning this one! They can't deny the reality of the Obama bounce, but they're going to make it look smaller, as they cling to the diminishing hope that Hillary could still pull it out. Talk about the audacity of hope!

CalD wrote on January 7, 2008 1:05 PM:

Fox was actually the second most accurate pollster of the 2004 NH Primary, after Marist College, in terms of average error on predicting candidate percentage shares. Marist's average error on raw percentages for all five candidates was 0.8%, Fox's was 1.4%.

They were also both within +/-1% on the Kerry/Dean margin. So were Gallup, LA Times Zogby. ARG and Franklin Pierce College were both off by 2%.

The biggest bloopers in 2004 seem to have come from UNH and Suffolk U. Neither seems to have picked up 5-point surge by Dean in the last few days of the race that four other tracking polls (ARG, Fox, Marist and Zogby) all noted. But I believe they both may have tweaked their methodology a little since then. So we'll see.

Aaron M wrote on January 7, 2008 3:04 PM:

Quick question.

I read elsewhere (and I cannot now remember where) that the above Fox Poll asked questions of likely Democratic voters.

Does this mean that the poll does not include Independent voters? Or are Independents (likely to vote for a Democrat) included in the Likely Democratic voter sample.

Just curious.

Mark F. wrote on January 7, 2008 3:13 PM:

I'm guessing the Fox poll is pretty accurate. I'd be surprised if all the Clinton attacks on Obama didn't draw at least a little blood. I'm expecting the NH results to be a lot closer than some of the polls suggest (Obama still wins, but by less than 8 points). At any rate, I think it's going to continue to be a horse race for awhile yet. You'll know she's just about out of it when the attacks from the Clinton camp get really dirty.

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