Poll: McCain Catches Rudy — In New York!

Comments (18)

audit the polls wrote on January 11, 2008 12:40 PM:

Say it with me. The polls lie.

Anonymous wrote on January 11, 2008 12:57 PM:

The wild card is Bloomberg. He may say he is an independent but that is untrue. He can run and weaken a Democratic ticket. I guess not too many New Yorkers care about Kerik. I was hoping I could picture of the jail named after Kerik but the day after he pled guilty his name was off the jail on CEnter Street.

r€nato wrote on January 11, 2008 1:02 PM:

New York Republican? Now there's a lonely feeling.

(yeah, I know, upstate != NYC)

SocraticGadfly wrote on January 11, 2008 1:03 PM:

MOST the remaining GOP states are winner-take-all, which means that there may not be quite as much GOP blood on the carpet as could be hoped after February's Super Tuesday.

heir ball wrote on January 11, 2008 1:03 PM:

As someone in New York, I always thought the only way Rudy could win (New York) would be if there was a huge turnout by rural New Yorkers and even then I wondered if it was really even possible. Rudy wasn't held as a good mayor, he was a spectacle and a tabloid regular, but not a good mayor. Not really particularly liked. I also remember that in real time his wanting to put the emergency command center in 7WTC was a frequent concern of local talk radio callers and in general conversation. It was thought to be a profoundly dumb and questionable idea while it was happening, not just after 9/11. Remember also the big deal republicans made when gore didn't win his home state. I 'm pretty sure Rudy won't win his home state. We know him here.

gcs wrote on January 11, 2008 1:06 PM:

Rudy may be "America's Mayor" but everyone in New York City is already onto this sack of shit. We long ago figured out what a fascist lying scumbag Rudy really is. If he has any sense at all he'll drop out of the race before the New York primary. The again, it will be fund to what this asshole lose to McCain and be humiliated in front of the entire country.

It's not only buh-bye to the campaign, but the consulting biz and Judith too....hahaha

Dee Illuminati wrote on January 11, 2008 1:09 PM:

Beyond initial pundits who had a direct cell phone line to Rudy, a perenial favorite to NYC's talking heads, I mean, how did Rudy connect? Telling smallville USA that they wanted to be like the Big Apple? I think that those who visit like the activity the fact that the city never closes, but are glad to return home where their lives are 'normal.'

It was a myoptic pressumption where the NYC based MSM 'assumed' that because of their laziness and shrinking budgets, smaller staffs, that just dialing Rudy on their cell phones made him electable.

This is a NYC echo chamber that doesn't resonate say like Huckabee or McCain.

Thats my impression, and the same is true of Fred Thompson, again I bet he is accesable from being on TV and traveling in that clique, but does that make him electable?

I get the feeling that Rudy has been the beneficiary of many contacts in the media, beneficiary of residing in NYC, and beneficiary of a MSM that is often lazy in getting out and getting the true pulse of America.

If CATV had to fill a slot, Rudy was available and would say something controversial, but does that make him electable?

I don't see how his NYC credentials connect to rural America. I get a vision of nude dancing and Bada Bing all accross the nation when we can currently visit Las Vegas, NYC, and Atlantic City and then just go home when we tire of it.

Greg DeLassus wrote on January 11, 2008 1:13 PM:

Meanwhile, I notice two things to be said about the democratic side of this particular race:

1) Sen Clinton is still way ahead, all talk of Sen Obama overtaking her even in NY aside.

2) That said, at 29% he is polling higher than he ever has in this particular primary race.

Anonymous wrote on January 11, 2008 1:29 PM:

To Greg DeLassus,

My bet is that Rudy will do 'OK" or respectable in NY similar to Hillary.

But that doesn't connect him to the rest of the country who doesn't have three wives and a sanctuary city status.

I also imagine that he will tout 911 and alienate those who see this as a naked opportunist attempt to profit from the trajedy, as if he never read the 911 report.

Outside of Rudy's immediate echo chamber, some in the media, he trails more controversial GOP candidates in total votes and fund raising.

Maybe the MSM talking heads will all cut him a check?

I'm sure he'll get some FL and NY votes, as if there is no immigration issue in and of itself between those locations, people fleeing NYC for FL, it is instead that he resonates 'no where else!'

kjoe wrote on January 11, 2008 1:48 PM:

If Obama gets 35 percent of the vote in Hew York---considering the superdelegates---what would the delegate split be? Unless the democrats have a winner take all(I thought they did not) in New York, how big a deal would it be for Hillary to win 55 percent of the vote? Just give me some reasonable figure scenarios.

Steve wrote on January 11, 2008 2:04 PM:

It's not looking good for Giuliani right now and it's looking really good for John McCain.

Bill McD wrote on January 11, 2008 2:08 PM:

I have to agree with the other New Yorkers here: Rudy's only chance to get any traction in NY comes from the rural upstate voters who had nothing to do with, and no experience with, his time as Mayor. The man is a narcissistic, authoritarian egomaniac who tried to suspend the results of the Mayoral Election that marked the end of his administration. Let's get him reconciled to the shitcan of history already.

dcshungu wrote on January 11, 2008 2:17 PM:

gcs wrote on January 11, 2008 1:06 PM:

Rudy may be "America's Mayor" but everyone in New York City is already onto this sack of shit.

Rudy was "Anmerica's Mayor" until America got a glimpse of the Rudy that we, New Yorkers, got to know and despise...

He'll be lucky to even be "America's Janitor" once he's been thoroughly exposed and brought to size by the ongoing democratic process.

Greg DeLassus wrote on January 11, 2008 2:45 PM:

If Obama gets 35 percent of the vote in Hew York---considering the superdelegates---what would the delegate split be? Unless the democrats have a winner take all(I thought they did not) in New York, how big a deal would it be for Hillary to win 55 percent of the vote? Just give me some reasonable figure scenarios.

According to The Green Papers, the delegates are awarded, in large measure, by congressional district. As such, the sort of predictions for which you are asking would require not merely a prediction about statewide vote totals, but also about who wins what percentage in each congressional district. Given that I know precisely nothing about the demographics of each congressional district in the state of NY, I feel wildly out of place making any such predictions.

Anonymous wrote on January 11, 2008 2:49 PM:

Tuesday 5 February 2008: 232 of 281 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's New York Presidential Primary. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at either the congressional district or statewide level.

151 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 29 congressional districts.
20 CDs with 5 delegates: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13, 16, 17, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29.
9 CDs with 6 delgates: 8, 11, 14, 15, 18, 21.
In addition, 81 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
51 at-large National Convention delegates
30 Pledged PLEOs

Anonymous wrote on January 11, 2008 2:52 PM:

Maybe Obama could get 1/3 - 2/5 of the NY delegates?

Utopia wrote on January 11, 2008 4:12 PM:

And they said irony was dead.

But seriously, is anyone really surprised by this? Rudy was never liked anywhere but NYC and there his support certainly wasn't very big.

U

Paulie wrote on January 11, 2008 6:00 PM:

Josh quoted TPM reader CS who was wondering why the other repugs haven't jumped on Rudy's "Risk-taking" strategy in the primary's and used it against him. To me, the answer is quite simple. Up until now (and probably for the rest of the campaign), Rudy hasn't posed much of a threat. The three front-runners (if you can call them that!), Huckabee, Romney and Mccain have all spent time bashing one another but not rudy. That's because he is a non-issue and hopefully will remain that way.

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