Rasmussen Poll: Obama Takes Big Lead In New Hampshire
Barack Obama has taken a huge lead in the first pure post-Iowa poll of New Hampshire. Rasmussen gives Obama 37%, Hillary Clinton 27%, John Edwards 19%, and Bill Richardson 8%. Rasmussen's last poll from two weeks ago had Clinton at 31%, Obama 28%, Edwards 18%, and Richardson 6%.
The poll was conducted on Friday, a one-day poll with the margin of error at ±4.5% — meaning that Obama's ten-point lead is just outside the margin. Also, Obama leads Hillary by 5 points among core Democrats, and by 16 points among independents. Indies are expected to make up 40% of the Dem primary electorate, according to the survey.
On the Republican side: John McCain 31%, Mitt Romney 26%, Ron Paul 14%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Rudy Giuliani 8%, and Fred Thompson 5%. Two weeks ago it was Romney 31%, McCain 27%, Giuliani 13%, Huckabee 11%, Paul 7%, and Thompson 5%.
Comments (45)
TNN wrote on January 5, 2008 2:43 PM:Gail Collins in her NY Times column today:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/05/opinion/05collins.html?_r=1&hp&oref=login
"In a small state where newcomers on the honor system can register as local voters on the spot, it could be easy to turn a mass of out-of-state college students and volunteers into what looks like an uprising of Iowa Youth."
Is she suggesting that Obama illegally or unethically pumped up the youth vote by importing voters from out-of-state and exploiting Iowa's honer system for registration?
Anonymous wrote on January 5, 2008 2:46 PM:Well he did.
Jenna L wrote on January 5, 2008 2:47 PM:YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
10 points...that's definitely the Iowa bounce. There is only three days before the primaries, and I think the only way Obama won't win BIG is if he doesn't perform well in tonight's debate. I am expecting Clinton to be on the offensive tonight.
Anyway, this is fantastic news.
Einsteiin wrote on January 5, 2008 2:47 PM:"just outside the margin" - can you add? 10 points is more than double the 4.5 margin of error.
DRinOH wrote on January 5, 2008 2:50 PM:Einstein,
The 4.5 applies to both - in other words Hillary could be 4.5 points higher and Obama could be 4.5 lower. So, it's just outside.
As I said earlier, I don't know which is the better sign for Obama - the fact that he's up by ten, or the fact that Rasmussen's site crashed due to overload ten minutes after they posted this.
Eric Kleefeld wrote on January 5, 2008 2:51 PM:The margin goes both ways, for all the candidates involved. Thus Obama's lead would have to be greater than 9% (4.5% * 2) to be beyond the margin of error.
Anonymous wrote on January 5, 2008 2:51 PM:Good riddance Hillaryland. It's time for change.
Pat Kelly wrote on January 5, 2008 2:53 PM:If the margin of error is +/-4.5%, then Obama could be overstated by 4.5% and Clinton understated by 4.5%. That would bring them within one point.
Way to go, Einsteiin.
Realistically, that 4.5% is likely on the high side of error, so Obama is 95% likely to be substantially ahead of Clinton.
Kefa wrote on January 5, 2008 2:54 PM:The Ras poll is also not the last one taken and it is outside the others so far.
Mark F wrote on January 5, 2008 3:01 PM:Seeing as how the margin of error is +/-4.5% and this is an early post-Iowa poll, my statistical analysis points to the strong possibility that Barack Obama will KICK HILLARY'S SORRY ASS.
Oscar DeGrouch wrote on January 5, 2008 3:04 PM:GO RON, GO!!!
www.ronpaul2008.com
I wouldn't get too excited about this one--Rasmussen's methodology is not the most reliable, and the fact that this is so far removed from the results of the other polls make me think it's probably an outlier. We'll know better in a day or two as the other outfits get their post-Iowa polls together.
Tom wrote on January 5, 2008 3:05 PM:Isn't the Rasmussen poll the only one that is solely post-Iowa? The others incorporate pre-Iowa polling I believe.
Elijah wrote on January 5, 2008 3:06 PM:Why are Obama supporters so angry? As far as I can tell they own computers and get to go to college, not Iraq. They boo HRC, but don't march on Washington and the right and don't ask to may questions of their own choice. Sounds like disciples to me...myself, no polyician is going to change anything...that's why I am on the board of my condo association, so I can help my neighbor...in real time. Leaders are for followers...a nation of revival tenters....
chisholm wrote on January 5, 2008 3:09 PM:Important to start thinking like the enemy--how are they going to destroy Obama in the general? I don't see how they do it with a theme ("blacks will riot in the streets if he loses"--see Jonah Goldberg's latest emission) without overplaying their hand. I also don't think they're going to get a lot of traction by mentioning his middle name every 5 seconds (see Bill Bennett).
I think they're going to have to look for "facts" they can harp on, a la "Kerry was never in Cambodia." This will be interesting to see unfold.
NamelessFaceless wrote on January 5, 2008 3:11 PM:So, let me see if I understand this . . . there is a 1 in 20 chance Hillary is actually as high as 31% and a 1 in 20 chance BO is as low as 33%. The odds of both being true are 1 in 400. I'll go ahead and wager on her getting her ass handed to her.
NCSteve wrote on January 5, 2008 3:12 PM:Anonymous wrote on January 5, 2008 2:46 PM: Well he did.
I've been seeing Hillatrolls spreading this little slander all over the place (including on Talk of the Nation yesterday) since Thursday night.
Shades of Baghdad Bob. I guess people who can convince themselves that she wasn't authorizing Bush to use military force against Iraq when she voted for the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq resolution can convince themselves of pretty much anything.
I guess next we'll hear how he's been bussing in college students from Illinois to New Hampshire and having them break into people's homes and tie them up so they and sit by their phones and wait for Rasmussen to call.
Geoff wrote on January 5, 2008 3:13 PM:Iowa Caucus rules do allow out-of-state college students to participate. Whether you agree with it or not, those are the rules and therefore it is neither illegal or unethical. Besides that, this did not give Obama an unfair advantage. Hillary has only herself to blame for not appealing to young college voters.
Jeff L. wrote on January 5, 2008 3:13 PM:Elijah,
There are plenty of Obama supporters in Iraq right now and your line "get to go to college, not Iraq.", is really pathetic. As for marching on Washington, I was on the streets in Oct. 2002 protesting the impending invasion. The only politician there was Sen. Obama while Sen. Clinton was busy calculating how her vote for giving Bush a blank check would help her presidential ambitions.
David wrote on January 5, 2008 3:17 PM:Amazing! Wow, even I'm starting to believe now! If this lead holds up through Tuesday, Obama will be in a great position to with South Carolina, where he was already close before Iowa.
Remember how New Hampshire was supposed to be Hillary's firewall? She lost Iowa by more than 8. If she loses NH by 10(!), it's hard to know if any other firewall will help her!
David wrote on January 5, 2008 3:20 PM:As for marching on Washington, I was on the streets in Oct. 2002 protesting the impending invasion. The only politician there was Sen. Obama while Sen. Clinton was busy calculating how her vote for giving Bush a blank check would help her presidential ambitions.
Yup, that sums up the difference pretty well. Nice job Jeff L.!
kaspian wrote on January 5, 2008 3:23 PM:And in entertainment news ... Ron Paul is beating Huckabee (for third place) in this poll! And he's got a blimp!
I love how all the energy seems to be flowing toward the Democrats, while the Republican race is becoming a sort of carnival side-show.
And for the record, I'm an Obamaphile, as well as a veteran of both the armed forces and many political actions, including the Million Man March. (I was the white guy in the back.) I've seen and heard some pretty good political orators, but I think Obama is something like an irresistible force of nature.
Anonymous wrote on January 5, 2008 3:29 PM:Hillary's only last gasp of hope is to go as negative as her "vast right wing conspiracy." Will be interesting to see if the Clintons go down with class or turn it into the same folks they've railed against for the last 17 years.
JoeyKeyport wrote on January 5, 2008 3:56 PM:It'll be Obama/Biden for the Dems in the general
markg8 wrote on January 5, 2008 4:12 PM:Obama can do better than Biden.
Peter wrote on January 5, 2008 4:12 PM:Ron Paul went from 7% to 14% in one week. Wow. I'm hoping he'll finish 15% or higher. If he goes over 20%, it'll be huge. Go Ron Paul!
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Oh, it'll totally be Obama/Clark if Obama pulls off the upset.
I don't know who else would make as good VP for any of these guys.
Note: "Good" means "basic national electoral math. Obama- rust belt, Wes Clark -- south. Clark, military issues, foriegn policy expertise, Obama domestic, etc. Clark, okay on the stump, Obama, great. Clark, never seems to blink. Obama, his eyes are always moist with profound meaning. I suppose you can sub in Edwards or Clinton for Obama and sort of get the same results. Although I'd imagine they'd be seriously considering Richardson too.
Michael A wrote on January 5, 2008 4:45 PM:Obama/Webb, Obama/Webb in 08. Clark is supporting clinton. Obama would never pick him.
wes2 wrote on January 5, 2008 4:57 PM:Umm, but if Webb goes VP, do we lose the Senate seat? Warner's running for the other one -- are there other VA Dems who can win statewide?
PulSamsara wrote on January 5, 2008 5:27 PM:Our nation's greatest 'state motto' is "Live Free or Die !"
These are not crazy people's words... they are about Passion for Freedom.
-LIVE FREE or DIE ! -
Maybe I'm wrong... but I don't believe that the folks who first struck those words had in mind promoting a person based on who they're related too. I believe that they had quite the opposite in mind.
America is a Democracy - Not a Monarchy.
Barack Obama for President of the UNITED States of America.
Dave wrote on January 5, 2008 5:32 PM:OK, I may have been pessimistic above. With ARG also showing a big lead for Obama, it's looking like there may be a significant swing in his favor after all. I can't imagine the mood's very happy at the Clinton campaign tonight.
blackstar wrote on January 5, 2008 5:50 PM:Well he did.
---------------
denial is the first stage of grief over the death of your candidate's Presidential aspirations.
so i'm told.
moondancer wrote on January 5, 2008 6:40 PM:Dave
Yes it must be glum in HRC circles, but imagine the mass seppuku at RNC headquarters. What will they do if they get a Huckleberry/ RuPaul 1-2 finish? They will have been transformed to a parody of a clown troop.
Neuro Doc wrote on January 5, 2008 6:58 PM:Not to be too pedantic, but "margin of error" is a probability statement. It means that there is a 1 in 20 chance (5%) that the actual value being measured in the larger population (voters) is greater than or less than 4.5 points of the value that was found in the smaller, sampled population. If this were a two-horse race, than any difference in the actual vote from that obtained in the smaller sample would be added, or subtracted, from the other candidate. Since this is not a two-horse race, however, the votes don't distribute in that linked manner. If the two candidates values were absolutely independent of one another, one can arrive at a value of liklihood, to a 5% certainty, that one is too high, and the other too low. Since we don't know how tightly linked the two candidate's votes will be, that isn't strictly possible. I'd guess that the actual margin of error is probably around 3%, i.e. the 10 point margin between HRC and BHO is well outside the MOE (2 * 3%).
pol wrote on January 5, 2008 7:08 PM:Umm, but if Webb goes VP, do we lose the Senate seat? Warner's running for the other one -- are there other VA Dems who can win statewide?
Tim Kaine?
BeAngryAtTheSun wrote on January 5, 2008 7:57 PM:This poll seems to skew toward the Independent wings of both parties. If Obama and McCain both poll with big leads on Monday night, which primary will the Independents gravitate toward?
On this end, let's compare the recent messages: Obama spoke of unity and (new buzzword, wait for it) post-partisanship, while McCain talked about the potential of leaving bases in Iraq for decades (a century?).
I think this means the Independents gravitate towards the Dems in the open primary, and Mitt might be able to close that margin with McCain. With all-day voting, I think the young and plugged in (i.e. those without landlines) will have a strong turnout, too, which (combined with libertarianism) helps Dr. Paul.
In other words, with every candidate interested in the Independent vote, I think it breaks significantly for the Dems, resulting in:
Obama wins big, Hillary second by 8-10 points, Edwards 5-7 points behind her.
McCain wins small, Mittens 5 points behind him, and Ron Paul at most 10 points behind Romney (leading a clump of 3-6 place finishers).
Going into South Carolina, Paul and Obama are the big winners, McCain and Edwards are the big losers (taking expectations into account).
CuriosityCat wrote on January 5, 2008 8:19 PM:Edwards is holding on to his core support. If Clinton fades, Edwards will become the ABO (Anybody But Obama) candidate, attracting Democrats away from Clinton for two reasons: his perceived ability to beat McCain, and his revolutionary call to restore the American democracy to the middle class.
barney fife wrote on January 5, 2008 9:01 PM:psst! I heard there were two 747's from Nairobi at Des Moines International on the day of the caucuses!
Make of this what you will.
PwapVt wrote on January 5, 2008 9:06 PM:NH should be a strong state for Paul.
Kansan wrote on January 6, 2008 4:26 AM:Ron Paul tied together the theme of sound economics as the thread that will alleviate many of the other problems that were proposed. Very cohesive and should speak well to the independent vote in NH.
Obama is still a globalist CFR member no matter how grand he orates, and certainly would like to see the govt continue to take control over our lives with govt healthcare.
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I click through the link and looks like he's actually up 12?
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