Chart: Totality Of Polls In Feb. 5th States Shows Race Is Tightening
Here it is: A handy guide to what all the most recent polls are saying in nearly all of the 22 states holding Democratic primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5th.
Taken together, all these polls — which we've assembled for you in chart form for your convenience — offer a clear snapshot of the Super Tuesday showdown as it is shaping up right now.
The overall picture these polls provide: The race is tightening up in practically all the key Feb. 5th states — mirroring what the national polls are showing.
It's true that of the states where polls are available, Hillary Clinton leads in all but three of them. And even in Colorado and Georgia, where Obama is ahead, his advantage is a narrow one. In short, the polls would seem to show that Hillary Clinton goes into Super Tuesday with a clear advantage.
Nonetheless, the chart shows that in recent weeks, and especially in the last few days, Obama has seriously narrowed the gaps in such key states as California, Massachusetts and Connecticut, with more polls coming in everyday. Furthermore, the withdrawal of John Edwards has thrown the race into yet more chaos — the combined Edwards/undecided number is around 20% across the board. If Obama can keep the momentum going by consolidating the undecideds and taking a majority of former Edwards supporters, this could get very close indeed.
If Hillary posts a strong showing on Super Tuesday, dominating across the board, then she'll likely stop Obama's momentum and seal the nomination soon afterwards. But if Obama cuts it close or even overtakes her in the day's delegate count, this race continues onward.
Take a look at our chart after the jump.
Alabama — Hillary Ahead, But Unclear: Recent polls have shown Hillary ahead by over ten points in a state that hasn't gotten much attention, but we'll find out soon enough whether Obama's big win in South Carolina gives him any boost with the state's African-American voters. There hasn't been very much data to go on, and previous polls put Obama ahead. Total Delegates: 52
Alaska — Unknown: There hasn't been any polling here, but on paper it looks like a decent state for Obama. It's a largely Republican state where Bill Clinton was rarely all that popular even with Democrats — the state's last Democratic governor, Tony Knowles would boast in ads for his 2004 Senate campaign that he sued the Clinton Administration over land-use issues. For his part, Knowles supports Obama. Total Delegates: 13
Arizona — Hillary Has Medium Lead: Recent polling has shown Hillary Clinton ahead here by about ten points, but she's under the 40% mark and with fairly high undecideds. Obama is supported by the state's popular governor Janet Napolitano, and Congressman Raul Grijalva just recently switched his support from Edwards to Obama. Total Delegates: 56
Arkansas — Hillary Has Wide Lead: There is no recent polling here, but it would seem to be a given that Hillary Clinton will handily win her former home state. Obama might be able to get a decent share in Little Rock, though, through African-American support. Total Delegates: 35
California — Hillary Ahead, But Tightening: Expect the country's largest state to also be the most heated contest on Super Tuesday. Hillary Clinton has the support of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, while Obama's newfound support from the Kennedy family could give him a leg up with Latinos and older voters. After having been ahead before by around 25 points, Hillary Clinton currently leads by only about ten points in most polls, and by only three in the most recent one. Hillary will probably take a good majority among Hispanic voters, while Obama is hoping to forge a coalition of black and white voters to take the day. Make no mistake: This will be the race to watch on Tuesday night. Total Delegates: 370
Colorado — Obama Has Small Lead: A recent poll put Barack Obama ahead by only two points in this caucus. Obama also just benefitted from the endorsement of former Denver Mayor Federico Peña, a supporter who might be able to help him break through among Hispanic voters. Total Delegates: 55
Connecticut — Race Has Narrowed To A Tie In One Poll: The big test here is whether the clout of the Kennedy family extends beyond Massachusetts and into other New England states. The campaigns stayed out of her throughout 2007, out of respect to native son Chris Dodd, meaning there was not any sort of intense campaign either for or against Hillary Clinton. Thus Hillary previously had a large lead here, but the new Rasmussen poll shows it to be a tied race. Total Delegates: 48
Delaware — Unknown: Term-limited Gov. Ruth Ann Minner supports Hillary, while both of the Democratic candidates in the primary to succeed her are for Obama. There hasn't been any recent polling, given the lack of interest in the state's very few delegates, so your guess is as good as ours. Total Delegates: 15
Georgia — Obama Has Small Lead: Recent polls have put Barack Obama ahead by about five points, up from deficits of around ten ponts over the Fall, due to heavy African-American support. He will likely dominate in Atlanta and college towns like Athens, while Hillary should run stronger in rural and suburban areas. Total Delegates: 87
Idaho — Unknown: There has been no major polling here, but Obama should probably run well in Boise, the closest thing this deep-red state has to a Democratic stronghold. Total Delegates: 18
Illinois — Obama Has Wide lead: Obama will probably rack up a huge majority in his home state — polls have shown him winning by more than two to one, carrying all three major racial demogrpahics — Whites, blacks and Hispanics — by strong margins. The Illinois legislature moved this primary up to Super Tuesday specifically to help the favorite son candidate, and it looks as if that will pay off. Total Delegates: 153
Kansas — Obama Is The Favorite: Although there has been no polling, Obama is considered the frontrunner here, as he has the backing of Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, the undisputed leader of this state's relatively small Democratic Party. Obama also recently made a high-profile stop here, to the former hometown of his maternal grandparents. Total Delegates: 32
Massachusetts — Hillary's Lead Is Slipping: Hillary Clinton had enormous leads in this state for quite a while, but the Kennedy family's political adoption of Barack Obama may well have changed things. The newest poll only put Hillary ahead by by six points, with clear momentum for Obama as Ted Kennedy campaigns more and more for him, and Edwards supporters go looking for a new candidate. Before the endorsement, other polls had shown Hillary ahead by as much as 37 points. If Obama wins this or even cuts it close, it will be a testament to the power of Ted Kennedy. Total Delegates: 93
Minnesota — Hillary Has Medium Lead: Obama is expected to run well in the Twin Cities, while Hillary should play nicely in the suburbs. The question then becomes where liberal voters from the Iron Range and the rural areas, who might have supported Edwards, end up going. Total Delegates: 72
Missouri — Hillary Has Medium Lead: Recent polling has put Hillary ahead but under 50%. Hillary is supported by Congressman Emanuel Cleaver, a former mayor of Kansas City, while Obama has the backing of Sen. Claire McCaskill — giving us the interesting situation of Obama being supported by the state's most prominent female politician, and Hillary being endorsed by one of the state's major black officials. Total Delegates: 72
New Jersey — Hillary Has Wide Lead: Hillary Clinton led by over 15 points in the most recent poll — but that was down from earlier leads of 30 points or more. The Democratic establishment in this state has lined up almost entirely behind Hillary Clinton, led by Gov. Jon Corzine and Sen. Bob Menendez. Barack Obama has the support of Newark Mayor Cory Booker, plus popular former Governor (and former Edwards supporter) Dick Codey. New Jersey is split between the New York and Philadelphia media markets, so advertising here is very expensive and fraught with risks for a Midwest candidate taking a crack at Hillary Clinton — thus she has consistently led in the polls by healthy margins. The cities should probably go to Obama and the suburbs to Hillary, giving her an overall win. Total Delegates: 107
New Mexico — Unknown: There has been no recent polling here. Both sides are heavily courting Bill Richardson for his endorsement. If Richardson does choose to endorse, the lucky recipient will have a strong leg up here. Total Delegates: 26
New York — Hillary Has Wide Lead: Hillary Clinton is hoping to mine her home state for a large majority of delegates, and polling has shown her well ahead. However, polling has turned out to be very erratic — Hillary is either ahead by as much as 30 points or as little as 12. Furthermore, the internals of some polls (notably Marist and Zogby) have shown Hillary with only a narrow lead in New York City. If Obama were to carry the city, he would get a lot of delegates for an out-of-state candidate. Hillary win overall, with landslide majorities in the suburbs and Upstate — the question is how many delegates her challenger will be able to poach. Total Delegates: 232
North Dakota — Obama Is The Frontrunner: There has been no recent polling here. However, North Dakota is a heavily Republican state with a handful of high-ranking Democratic officeholders, led by Sen. Kent Conrad — and he backs Obama. The Clintons were never especially popular here, either, so Obama is probably the favorite. Total Delegates: 13
Oklahoma — Hillary Has Wide Lead: Before John Edwards dropped out, he was running second here behind Hillary and ahead of Obama, who was at a distant third. The state will probably go to Hillary in a two-way race, given the state's overall demographics and tendency towards more conservative Democrats. Total Delegates: 38
Tennessee — Hillary Has Moderate Lead: A recent poll have put Hillary ahead here by 11 points, consistent with past polls. There's not much data to go on, but if this race becomes like other Southern primaries, with Obama doing poorly among whites and Hillary doing badly with blacks, then Hillary should probably win it in the end, given this particular state's overall demographics. Total Delegates: 68
Utah — Hillary Holds Large Lead: A poll from early January put Hillary Clinton well ahead of Obama. Unfortunately, there just isn't much information to work off of in this very heavily Republican state, but it will all come down to the vote in Salt Lake City, the state's Democratic stronghold. Obama has a trip scheduled there for this weekend. Total Delegates: 23
Snapshot Of Most Recent Poll In Each State
| State | Numbers | Pollster | Date |
| Alabama | Clinton 43%, Obama 28%, Edwards 16% | Rasmussen | Jan 25 |
| Alaska | No recent polls | ||
| Arizona | Clinton 37%, Obama 27%, Edwards 15% | Behavior Research | Jan 26 |
| Arkansas | No recent polls | ||
| California | Clinton 43%, Obama 40%, Edwards 9% | Rasmussen | Jan 30 |
| Colorado | Obama 34%, Clinton 32%, Edwards 17% | Mason-Dixon | Jan 27 |
| Connecticut | Clinton 40%, Obama 40%, Edwards 11% | Rasmussen | Jan 29 |
| Delaware | No recent polls | ||
| Georgia | Obama 41%, Clinton 35%, Edwards 13% | Rasmussen | Jan 25 |
| Idaho | No recent polls | ||
| Illinois | Obama 51%, Clinton 22%, Edwards 15% | Research 2000 | Jan 27 |
| Kansas | No recent polls | ||
| Massachusetts | Clinton 43%, Obama 37%, Edwards 11% | Rasmussen | Jan 30 |
| Minnesota | Clinton 40%, Obama 33%, Edwards 12% | Univ. of MN | Jan 28 |
| Missouri | Clinton 44%, Obama 31%, Edwards 18% | Research 2000 | Jan 27 |
| New Jersey | Clinton 49%, Obama 32%, Edwards 10% | Quinnipiac | Jan 23 |
| New Mexico | No recent polls | ||
| New York | Clinton 45%, Obama 33%, Edwards 10% | PPP (D) | Jan 30 |
| North Dakota | No recent polls | ||
| Oklahoma | Clinton 44%, Edwards 27%, Obama 19% | SurveyUSA | Jan 28 |
| Tennessee | Clinton 43%, Obama 32%, Edwards 16% | PPP (D) | Jan 29 |
| Utah | Clinton 46%, Obama 23%, Edwards 9% | Dan Jones | Jan 10 |
Comments (35)
FlyOnTheWall wrote on January 31, 2008 2:32 PM:Alabama Update:
A poll from the AEA's polling institute out this morning shows Obama with a clear 40-35 lead over Hillary, on the strength of gathering black support. Better move that one to Obama's column.
baldheadeddork wrote on January 31, 2008 2:36 PM:Great Job, Eric. Thanks.
FlyOnTheWall wrote on January 31, 2008 2:36 PM:Todays' InsiderAdvantage polls, which show Obama up in Georgia 52-36, and Clinton ahead 59-26 in Tennessee. It's a terrible poll, but probably enough to put Georgia in the 'wide lead for Obama' column, and Tennessee in the 'wide lead for Hillary' category.
Brownell wrote on January 31, 2008 2:36 PM:It would be helpful to include one more thing on the chart - if the State's delegates are awarded proportionately or winner-take-all.
FlyOnTheWall wrote on January 31, 2008 2:38 PM:Brownell: Under Democratic party rules, all primary elections are proportional.
Kefa wrote on January 31, 2008 2:39 PM:Idaho is the key state.....every potato will be polled and will get a vote I promise.
DRinOH wrote on January 31, 2008 2:39 PM:For those who continue to insist that Barack Obama is a secret undercover conservative, he was just rated the "single most liberal member" of the United States Senate by the National Journal:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Most_liberal.html
It would be helpful to include one more thing on the chart - if the State's delegates are awarded proportionately or winner-take-all.
baldheadeddork wrote on January 31, 2008 2:40 PM:One more - look at the trendlines on the Gallup poll. Edwards support is migrating overwhelmingly towards Obama. In the last three days, Clinton has gone from 44 to 43, Edwards has gone from 14 to 8, and Obama has gone from 33 to 39.
I think we need more data, but this is going to be one to watch.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104071/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx
baldheadeddork wrote on January 31, 2008 2:42 PM:Brownell - DNC rules mandate awarding delegates proportionally. There are no winner-take-all Dem primaries.
Anonymous wrote on January 31, 2008 2:43 PM:Eric, why did you choose Gallup over Ramassaun? Is it because Ramassaun is showing the gap between Hillary and Obama is widening up again and it runs against your Obama-loving narrative? Shame on you for showing bias so blatantly!!!
Anonymous wrote on January 31, 2008 2:43 PM:this is great news for Hillary! feel the Hillmentum™!
Angry Vet wrote on January 31, 2008 2:44 PM:I have to speak for my state, the 32nd of the nation, and the gem and Star of the North: Minnesota.
Yes, we are home to the Republican National Convention this year in Minnesota, 1-4 September, 2008. Yes, there is a good possibility we will have a favorite son on a McCain ticket: Governor Tim Pawlenty, chair of his Minnesota campaign.
But, of course, this is Minnesota. We haven't gone Republican in a Presidential election since 1976, when, interestingly enough, we had TWO favorite sons on Presidential tickets. But we survived the Reagan and GWB administration with our firmly Democratic (or as we lovingly call it, Democratic-Farmer-Labor) credentials fully intact.
This poll, being trumpeted by the Star Tribune and Minnesota Public Radio is questionable at the very least:
#1: Minnesota is an open caucus state. Only registered democrats were pulled for this.
#2: Polling was conducted LAST WEEK.
#3: HRC has no campaign stops planned here. Obama has the Target Center rented out for 1:30pm this Saturday.
#4: Haven't seen an HRC ad YET.
#5: MSP is way far away from the Iowa TV market. However, the electorate south of the cities is not.
#6: HRC has one field office. BHO has five.
#7: BHO has three sitting US Representatives in his corner, with both McCollum (SP) and Ellison (Mpls.) behind him, including the mayor of Mpls.. HRC has Walter Mondale and the Mayor of Saint Paul.
40-33 pre-South Carolina, pre-Kennedy means its ALOT closer. Remember, this is the electorate that turned out in DROVES to elect the first Muslim US Representative, and we care dearly (at least the mobilized liberals in this state) for giving new guys a shot.
Also note: The DFL right now is really reeling. It's flat broke (minnpost.com) and we haven't won the Governor's seat since 1987. Grassroots campaigns (e.g. Wes Walz, 1st District) fair extremely well for DFL endorsements. It is most assuredly a ground game grassroots state.
My bet is Obama by 6. But we will see.
ThompsonLives wrote on January 31, 2008 2:45 PM:To Brownell:
No Democratic race is winner-take-all. It's all done proportionately, by congressional district.
Greg DeLassus wrote on January 31, 2008 2:47 PM:Hillary is supported by Congressman Emanuel Cleaver, a former mayor of Kansas City, while Obama has the backing of Sen. Claire McCaskill — giving us the interesting situation of Obama being supported by the state's most prominent female politician, and Hillary being endorsed by one of the state's major black officials.
For what little endorsements are worth, Clinton is also endorsed by Mayor Francis Slay and Obama is endorsed by St Louis Co executive Charlie Doolie and both of the democratic congressmen from St Louis, Russ Carnahan and Lacy Clay. Obama is also endorsed by Former Senator (and wife of the late governor) Jean Carnahan. Incidentally, Mayor Slay stepped in a real hornet's nest here lately by firing the fire chief, so it is an open question whether his endorsement helps or hurts Clinton in St Louis.
Angry Vet wrote on January 31, 2008 2:48 PM:One more note:
YOU HAVE TO READ THIS, and the corresponding links from KOS:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/131715/184/465/447009
I think we are on the verge of a tidal wave. I just posted a comment 10 minutes ago saying "PINCH ME, I THINK I'M DREAMING."
Should the Latino demographic switch........
(If you are an Obama supporter reading the link above, I heartily recommend you read it to the tune of "Woodstock," by Crosby, Stills, & Nash).
Stephen wrote on January 31, 2008 2:49 PM:Most observers give Obama an edge in the 6 Western states holding caucuses: MN, CO, KS, UT, ID, AK.
Apparently he is well-organized, having had seven field offices in CO for a while, and (anecdotally) making a lot more calls in MN.
This reputed 'organizational edge in caucus states' may turn out to fizzle, like the much-touted Culinary Workers endorsement in NV.
But that IS the conventional wisdom right now.
It would be helpful to include one more thing on the chart - if the State's delegates are awarded proportionately or winner-take-all.
Keith wrote on January 31, 2008 2:49 PM:Unless something dramatic happens, Hillary is going to come out of Tuesday with a lot of momentum.
FlyOnTheWall wrote on January 31, 2008 2:51 PM:Anonymous@2:43,
Good grief! Today's Rasmussen shows a substantial tightening of the margin in its tracking poll, down to seven points. It also claims that last night's sample, the first since Edwards' withdrawal, showed the candidates effectively tied. In other words, Rasmussen is currently showing Hillary Clinton's lead vanishing entirely, while Gallup continues to show a statistically significant lead, albeit a shrinking one.
Eric posts Gallup instead of Rasmussen because Gallup is, by any measure, the more reliable poll. It uses a 1,000 person sample each night, live interviewers, and up to five callbacks. It even supplements its normal database with calls to cellphones, to ensure that cell-only households are sampled. Rasmussen is a small-sample robopoll.
So, both of your premises are wrong. Rasmussen is more favorable to Obama than Gallup (at least, as of this afternoon), and it's being ignored not out of bias, but because Gallup is so clearly superior.
Wow, I hadn't dreamed my two posts would be that overtly partisan. i guess I was just really fired up. And ready to go.
My bad. ;)
I love that we are Super Tuesday. FINALLY!
Looks like Gallup has the national race nearing a tie now, good for Obama. There is definitely movement across the board.
BluePuppy wrote on January 31, 2008 2:55 PM:My Super Tuesday prediction:
HRC: 898 BHO: 664
Hillary wins 14 states, BHO wins 8
The NY Times leadline 2/6: Senator Clinton Scores Major Victory towards Presidency
Abby Kelleyite wrote on January 31, 2008 2:56 PM:This diary from Daily Kos includes much additional info that some may find helpful:
Super Tuesday Preview, 1/31/08
Michael A wrote on January 31, 2008 2:57 PM:Good link Angry Vet, thanks. That would be huge if it plays out.
Keith, something dramatic is happening. With the way the polls are trending, it could be a huge day for obama. The only way the clintons have a lot of mo is if they win big, because of the expectations that they have built up. If they don't win big, it will be a slug fest to the end. If they lose big, obama will be unstoppable.
D wrote on January 31, 2008 2:58 PM:From Above:
"Eric, why did you choose Gallup over Ramassaun? Is it because Ramassaun is showing the gap between Hillary"
I think you need to look at the 'Rasmussen' report again. It show the gap narrowing. Hillary is up 1 point from yesterday, Barack is up 3. This number is a 3 day average, meaning that baracks increase for that day alone was much higher. To quote the report: "For last night’s data alone, Clinton and Obama were essentially even."
The Rassmussen report also showed that CA polled them within 4 points.
Greg DeLassus wrote on January 31, 2008 2:59 PM:I think we are on the verge of a tidal wave. I just posted a comment 10 minutes ago saying "PINCH ME, I THINK I'M DREAMING."
That was an interesting link, dear Angry Vet. I do not speak Spanish, so I do not know from listening, but does anyone know if Obama mentions his participation in those immigrant marches in his Spanish language ads? I should imagine that this would play very well to Latino audiences. I was not aware of this, and it only serves to reinforce my decision to support Obama (my wife is an immigrant, so I have little use for close-the-borders types).
Moose49 wrote on January 31, 2008 2:59 PM:MObamaMentum!
Michael A wrote on January 31, 2008 3:00 PM:Not a bad prediction bluepuppy and entirely plausible. I'm not predicting squat. Every time I do, I jinx everything, bad karma.
Greg DeLassus wrote on January 31, 2008 3:00 PM:My Super Tuesday prediction:HRC: 898 BHO: 664
I make no predictions myself, but I will say that this sounds very plausible to my ears.
Peep wrote on January 31, 2008 3:02 PM:Yeah Yeah Yeah we know the B is dead AGAIN. Look folks belive what you want but Voter Land is Hillary Land.
Openleft.com wrote on January 31, 2008 3:02 PM:The Continuing Village Smear Campaign Against Krugman
by: Matt Stoller
Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 07:55:03 AM EST
Here's Paul Krugman.
Hmm. A little while back I learned from various sources that the reason I criticize Barack Obama is that my son works for Hillary. This was news to me, since I wasn't aware that I have any children.
Now I learn that it's important that I disclose that I was Bill Clinton's chief economic adviser in 1992. This is also news to me, since I wasn't aware that I worked for the campaign at all.
You could chalk this up to overzealous Obama partisans, except that the Obama campaign put out an inaccurate and sloppy hit piece on Krugman, a clear signal that this guy is fair game. So of course, now liberal villagers are pretending that there is some personal beef between Krugman and Obama, that Krugman simply 'hates' Obama and that's why he's offering criticisms. Say what you will about Krugman, but the guy is intellectually honest. He was attacking Bush based on policy dishonesty in 2000, way before most of the liberal pundit loser class, including EJ Dionne and his ilk, got it. And now that Krugman is applying the same standards to Obama, saying 'hey people, his policies aren't as progressive as Hillary's and he's sort of not being wholly truthful about them', Krugman is getting similar treatment from the Villagers he got from 2000-2004, the Bush derangement syndrome argument. It's eery. Beware of the Village attacking Krugman with personal attacks, because Krugman has a pretty good track record.
I'm going to toot my own website because I can't seem to get anywhere email people.
We have a guy sending us info back to our site that is in Dover De where Michelle Obama is speaking and he say the energy there is incredible...
We have some pictures up of the attendees...please spread the word
John McCutchen wrote on January 31, 2008 3:04 PM:ATTENTION BAY AREA
Please join Senator Ted Kennedy in Oakland and Senator John Kerry in San Francisco, where they will talk about their support for Senator Obama and why he is the one candidate who can bring about the kind of change we can believe in.
Special Event with Senator Ted Kennedy
Beebe Memorial Cathedral
3900 Telegraph Avenue
Oakland, CA 94609
Friday, February 1, 2008
Doors Open: 2:00 p.m.
Directions & RSVP:
http://ca.barackobama.com/oaklandkennedy
The event is free and open to the public.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Canvass Kick-off Rally with Senator John Kerry
Everett Middle School Auditorium
450 Church Street
San Francisco, CA 94114
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Doors Open: 9:30 a.m.
Directions & RSVP:
http://ca.barackobama.com/cakerryrally
The event is free and open to the public.
The liberal hype is just that hype we out side the coast belive that it is Hillary running the righteous campaign, what Kennedy Clyburn Kerry and Obama have done is to exploit old identify politics and victimize through what they knew were old group grievance to inflame against not rally for and in so doing they just walked on the graves of the true dead heroes MLK and JFK using their legacy their lives their sacrifice as a weapons a lie against another who Herself has spent a life championing the causes they believed in and it is disgraceful and desperate and wrong. I do not believe for a second either man would be proud to be so violated as pawns in a campaign. Hillary has the honor here; I do not believe for a second that JFK or MLK would be pleased with the manner that they have been used.
SHAME SHAME SHAME
