Wow!

I thought CA would get closer as we got to the 5th but the NJ numbers are shocking! That’s HRC Turf!

Go Obama!

GObama!!

Interesting news from California, and the trend seems to be confirmed by a new Field poll released Sunday morning, showing a 36-34 lead for HRC with 18% undecided.

Wow, these numbers are shocking indeed.

I've been reading that due to early ballots, Obama would probably have to win day-of voting in California by 6 or 7% to win the state outright, but regardless of whether that happens or not, the Clinton campaign has to be officially back on their heels at this point. Personally, I think Obama takes Missouri.

After Super Tuesday, the rest of the Feb. states are looking very Obama friendly.

I wish I had some clue about how this new comments section works. Sometimes a comment will go through normally, sometimes it'll get hung up in moderation and wait for hours before getting posted, and other times, it'll get swallowed up by the server, never to be seen again.

Seriously TPM, what's the deal?

Ditto on the wow. The trends are going good for obama, the question is is it enough to get a media win on Tuesday. It's all about media and public perception now. Neither the clintons nor obama will win enough delegates on Tuesday to knock the other out. But if he wins the state totals and in turn the states, the perception might be that he is the winner and will win. I am really sceptical of polls, but these trends do look good, other that the gallup nationwide poll yesterday, which was not good news.

The WJC Foundation is going to produce more headlines than Hillary, between the convention and the general election. And it's not going to be limited to the kind of gut-wrenching stuff the NYT has already covered. It won't just be stories of Bill watching TV and kicking back with dictators, and putting together mining and oil deals.

Nope, what's coming next is that were going to learn that alot of money--millions--have been given to the WJC Foundation as a way to curry favor with a future HRC Administration.

The Democrats by making Hillary the nominee are going to walk into the Clinton trap.

Obama has been running a spectacular campaign.

FlyOnTheWall:

The New Jersey poll is the real news here. It's been clear for the past week that California isn't going to provide either candidate with a large margin. New York remains solidly in Hillary's column, and she'll probably get 30-40 more delegates that Obama does, even though he'll carry the City. She was hoping for a similar boost from New Jersey, but if Zogby's right, those delegates are going to split fairly evenly.

So how does HRC look coming out of Super Tuesday? Other than New York, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, there's no good reason to believe she's presently enjoying a double-digit margin in any state. Obama's got double digit margins in Illinois and Georgia, which will roughly offset those three HRC states (particularly the size of his IL margin). There's a potential upside for Obama in the caucus states, which control 14% of the delegates who'll be awarded. Tough to see HRC breaking out anywhere at all. Everywhere else, they're going to run fairly evenly. The upshot is that by Wednesday morning, they'll be roughly even in the pledged delegate count (barring a major last minute shift).

So who does that favor? I'll let you decide for yourselves.

Crossing finger here. For Obama. And that this will post.

techpusher writes:

I thought CA would get closer as we got to the 5th but the NJ numbers are shocking! That’s HRC Turf!

Second.

FYI, new posts over at TPM showing other polls with mixed results in CA. Still a lot of undecided.

The SF Chronicle's field poll is very interesting. The most surprising part for me is that Clinton holds a 2-point lead over McCain in a hypothetical match-up, while Obama beats him by 7 points. The link is above, but I'll post it again:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/03/MNF7UR6FE.DTL&tsp=1

Zogby also has Romney beating McCain in CA. They're the only poll of the GOP race to have it that way. That gives me pause about these results.

http://themoderatevoice.com/politics/polls/approval-ratings/16939/zogby-poll-comfortable-new-hampshire-primary-leads-for-obama-and-mccain/

This poll has had a very bad track record lately (i.e., pre-NH), and TPM needs to put the Zogby poll in the proper context. Its pre-NH poll was a disgrace.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1417

Imagine if it was Hillary now for 8 years, recession averted, surplus back, national debt on track for disappearance (like under Bill's watch), and then a mature Obama for 8 more.

What worse nightmare for the Republicans?

Imagine if Hillary wins a 50% + 1 victory but doesn't bring in a huge congressional majority. Then she gets killed in the midterms and it's gridlock for the rest of her presidency.

As for maturity, I think the "kid" can handle it. Why do red-state Dems love this man so much? They hate their jobs?

glennS, I think one of the poor assumptions made by Dems in this campaign is that Obama will be able to run again in 4, 8 or 12 years. But politics are unpredictable, and chances to run for Prez usually come along once in a lifetime if a pol is lucky -- usually not at all. We don't know what the dynamics will be down the road and whether he will be able to run or even whether he will want to.

Be thankful he's running now, take advantage of the moment history has given us, and vote for him. It is almost certain you will not get another chance.

It is a mistake to trumpet the Zogby poll without acknowledging it was grossly incorrect in advance of NH. It was malpractice, pure and simple. The better practice would be to trot out the latest numbers, for whatever they are worth, with the kind of caveat that accompanies responsible reporting (see the last paragraph of this report).

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/920176.html

Richmond: Malpractice? I think you take these polls too seriously. Again if you are going to use NH to judge polls then every poll reported on TPM would need an asterisk (*this poll was wrong in NH). I think we all know not to trust one poll to reflect the actual votes on election day. Do you have the same problem with pollsters showing Hillary in the lead that also got NH wrong?

I'm an Obama supporter, but a little realism is needed here. Nearly 40% of California voters have already voted(within last 30 days)due to their early voting program. Most of these votes were submitted when HRC held a 15% lead in the polls.

My hope is that Obama stays within 5-10 points of HRC after the voting in CA is done.

Listening to the Pollsters on NPR the other day, they said point blank that while the polling has been accurate for the republicans and 3rd & 4th place democrats, they have had real hard time with Clinton/Obama for some reason. It's funny listening to them spout off excuses by the dozen. Personally, I'm totally against polling before the contest. Poll afterwards to find out why people voted the way they did, but I see no logical reason to poll before an election.

I live in San Francisco. Friday, Ted Kennedy led a huge rally in Oakland, and yesterday morning John Kerry helped launch a big GOTV gathering just a few blocks from my apartment. And today Michelle Obama is leading a town hall meeting about an hour away in San Jose.

Thousands have been turning out for these events, and the venues haven't been big enough to hold the crowds. And this is in a city where the mayor and most of the local officials are Hillary backers.

Something big is happening here at the grass-roots level, and Obama's campaign seems to be hitting on all cylinders. It will be interesting to see the numbers come Tuesday. I can't wait!