Still another round of battleground state polling -- this one from Mason-Dixon -- shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting seven key Bush states by narrow margins.
If these numbers hold up, it would mean an overall victory for Obama:
• Colorado: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.
• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.
• Missouri: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.
• Nevada: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 46%.
• Ohio: McCain 47%, Obama 45%.
• Virginia: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.
All these polls have a margin of error of ±4%. The four states where Obama is ahead add up to 54 electoral votes, with another 46 votes in the states where McCain is ahead. And all 100 of those electoral votes went to Bush last time. If Obama holds the Kerry states, and tacks on those 46 -- heck, if he tacks on another 18 -- he's the next President.
Mason-Dixon has tended to paint a rosier picture for McCain than other pollsters out there, and even they are in effect forecasting a McCain loss.
New McCain Ad: Obama Endorses McCain -- And Lieberman
The new McCain ad, set to air in key states, features footage of Barack Obama in a Senate hearing from January 2007, praising the McCain-Lieberman plan on global warming:
"I want to thank Senator Lieberman, as well as Senator McCain, for the outstanding leadership that they've shown," Obama says. This ad might have been more effective if Joe Lieberman had been McCain's running mate, instead of somebody who denies man-made global warming. And furthermore, the environment isn't even one of the big issues in this campaign.
Obama In Iowa And Indiana; Biden In Ohio -- And Delaware
Barack Obama has a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Des Moines, Iowa, and a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Highland, Indiana. Joe Biden is curiously starting the day with a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Newark, Delaware -- in his home state, which is a virtual lock to vote Democratic -- followed by a 2 p.m. ET rally in Kettering, Ohio, and a 4 p.m. ET rally in Lima, Ohio.
McCain Touring Ohio; Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning through Ohio today, with a 10 a.m. ET rally in Hanoverton, a smaller 12:15 p.m. ET event in Steubenville and another such event at 1:30 p.m. ET in New Philadelphia, and a 5:50 p.m. ET event alongside Arnold Schwarzenegger in Columbus. Sarah Palin is continuing on the campaign's much-derided attempt to win Pennsylvania, with a 9 a.m. ET rally in Latrobe, and a 4 p.m. ET rally in York.
Obama Camp Downplays Report Of Rahm As Chief Of Staff
The Obama camp moved last night to talk down an AP report that the candidate approached Rahm Emanuel about being chief of staff -- though they didn't quite deny it, either. Obama told the Chicago Sun-Times, "I'm trying to win an election," and David Axelrod said, "Don't believe everything you read."
Poll: Obama Up Ten Points In Colorado
A new survey of Colorado from Public Policy Polling (D) confirms the general consensus that Barack Obama is on his way to winning the two-time Bush state of Colorado. The numbers: Obama 54%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.2% margin of error.
McCain To Appear On Saturday Night Live
John McCain will make a special guest appearance tomorrow night on Saturday Night Live. Whether he moves anybody's votes with the appearance will be anybody's guess, but at least it shows he's a good sport about all those recent sketches in which Darrell Hammond has torn him to pieces.
McCain: Joe The Plumber Is "My Role Model"
At a rally last night in Ohio, John McCain referred to Joe "The Plumber" Wurzelbacher as "an American hero, a great citizen of Ohio and my role model." And no, this is not from The Onion.
The newest polls show tight races in some key swing states -- with two separate polls confirming a close race in Indiana:
• Indiana: Obama is up 46%-45% in a new Selzer poll, and it's a tied race of 47%-47% according to a Research 2000 poll released last night. Obama was up 47%-44% in a Selzer poll from a month and a half ago, and Research 2000 had Obama up 48%-47% the day before yesterday.
• Colorado: Marist has Obama ahead 51%-45%, with a ±4% margin of error. The key state is that Obama has won the early vote 59%-41%, with a 46%-46% tie among the remaining likely electorate. There is no prior Marist poll for comparison.
• Virginia: Marist has Obama up 51%-47%, with a ±4% margin of error. There is no prior Marist poll for comparison. The polls in Virginia right now are split between those who say Obama is narrowly ahead and those who say he's way ahead.
Also, the new Fox News national poll has Obama ahead 47%-44%, with a ±3% margin of error, a much closer lead than the 49%-40% advantage from a week ago.
The new CNN polls confirm the conventional wisdom that Barack Obama is close to locking up Colorado and Virgnia -- a combination that would would deliver him the presidency if he holds on to all the Kerry states -- and he's running strong in other swing states, too:
• Colorado: Obama 53%, McCain 45%. Two weeks ago, Obama led 51%-47%.
• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, not all that different from the 51%-46% Obama lead two weeks ago.
• Georgia: McCain 52%, Obama 47%. This is not significantly changed from the 53%-45% McCain lead a week ago -- but it is significantly different from the 17-point win that George W. Bush had here in 2004, and could have serious implications in down-ticket races.
• Missouri: McCain 50%, Obama 48%, basically the same as a 49%-48% McCain lead two weeks ago.
• Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, not significantly changed from the 54%-44% Obama lead two weeks ago.
All five of these states went to George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 75 electoral votes. These surveys all have a margin of error of ±3.5%.
As noted above, Virginia and Colorado together would guarantee Obama the presidency if he can hold all the other Kerry states -- an assumption that seems like a pretty safe bet at this point.
The new set of Rasmussen swing-state polls shows Barack Obama continuing to lead in Colorado and Virginia, and running close with John McCain in a few other battlegrounds:
• Colorado: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead last week. Most recent polls have given Obama a lead of about this much or even more, and the state should be considered as leaning towards Obama.
• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-48% McCain edge last week. Other polls show a tight race here, and it should be seen as a real toss-up with a possible slight Obama lean.
• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead last week. This state is a true toss-up.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to a 50%-48% McCain lead from late last week. This formerly reliably-red state is also a genuine toss-up now, with other polls giving a similarly narrow lead to either candidate.
• Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, compared to a 49%-47% McCain lead last week. Most of the recent polls give Obama a lead about in line with this one.
• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 54%-44% Obama lead from last week. Most other recent polls have Obama ahead by a much bigger margin -- but they all agree that he is ahead.
These polls all have a ±3% margin of error.
All six of these states went for George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 95 electoral votes.
It's hard to overstate just how damaging it would be for John McCain if he loses either Colorado or Virginia, let alone both. With Obama on track for solid wins in Iowa and New Mexico, both Bush 2004 states, all he has to do is win Colorado or Virginia plus all the Kerry states. At that point, McCain will have to sweep all of the remaining Bush states and snatch away Pennsylvania -- where the polls right now have him way behind.
Obama Cancels Campaign Events To Visit Ill Grandmother
Barack Obama is canceling his campaign events on Thursday and Friday, in order to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Madelyn Dunham's health has taken a turn for the worse, and the situation serious enough to merit the candidate canceling two days of campaigning during the final two weeks of the campaign.
Obama In Florida, Biden In Colorado
Barack Obama is campaigning in Florida today, with a 10:30 a.m. ET policy summit on jobs in Lake Worth, and a 5:45 p.m. ET rally in Miami alongside Michelle Obama. Michelle Obama is also holding an 11:45 a.m. ET rally in Pensacola. Joe Biden is swinging through Colorado today, with a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Greeley and a 4:30 p.m. ET rally in Commerce City.
McCain In Pennsylvania, Palin In Nevada
John McCain is campaigning today in Pennsylvania, a state where he hopes to overcome a serious gap in the polls and take 21 electoral votes away from the Democratic column. First McCain has a 10 a.m. ET rally in Bensalem, followed by a 2 p.m. ET rally in Harrisburg, and a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Moon Township. Sarah Palin is campaigning in Nevada, with a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Reno and a 4:45 p.m. ET rally in Henderson.
McCain Banking On Pennsylvania
CNN reports that the McCain campaign is increasingly viewing Colorado as a goner for them -- even as they dispatched Sarah Palin there yesterday for a full day of campaigning -- and are looking at a way to win the Electoral College by snatching a Kerry state away from Obama. The strategy is now relying heavily on Pennsylvania, where Obama is ahead in the polls by around ten points.
McCain Campaign Making Appeal For Divided Government
The McCain is falling back on a new argument for the home stretch of the campaign: That a Republican should be elected president as a check on what is expected to be a large Democratic majority in Congress. "That argument is a bank shot," McCain strategist Charlie Black told the Boston Globe. "We're reminding them that by considering Obama they're delivering a monopoly to liberal Democrats."
McCain: My Robocalls Are True, Obama's Ads Are Lies
Appearing this morning on CBS's The Early Show, John McCain defended his robocall saying that Barack Obama has "worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers." "That robocall is absolutely accurate," McCain said. "And, by the way, Sen. Obama's campaign is running robocalls as we speak. He's running an ad that distorts -- that's untrue about my immigration position, about stem cell research, and about several other issues."
A new round of Rasmussen polls tonight shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting some of the key swing states this election -- and on the whole, that's good news for Obama:
• Colorado: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a nearly-identical 52%-45% Obama lead from a few days ago.
• Florida: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to the 51%-46% Obama lead from a week ago.
• Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-46% Obama lead from last week.
• North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 48%, with ±3% margin of error, compared to a 48%-48% tied race from a week ago.
• Ohio: McCain 49%, Obama 47%, with a ±4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-49% tied race from last week.
All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004. And at the rate things are going for John McCain -- with it looking less and less likely that he'll be able to pick up a Kerry state -- he'll essentially need to sweep all of them.
Polls: Obama Way Ahead In Four Battleground States
A new set of polls from Quinnipiac gives Barack Obama very strong leads in four key swing states: He's up 52%-43% in Colorado, 54%-38% in Michigan, 51%-40% in Minnesota, and 54%-37% in Wisconsin. Three of these four states have gone Democratic in the past two elections -- though by close margins -- and Colorado would represent a pick-up in the Dem column away from the GOP.
McCain To Unveil New Economic Proposals Today
John McCain will use his rally today in Pennsylvania as a platform to unveil new proposals on the economy, billed as his "Pension And Family Security Plan," an issue area that has in large part contributed to Barack Obama's lead in the polls. The plan will combine capital-gains tax cuts with a proposal to have the government buy out variable-rate mortgages and replace them with more manageable fixed-rate loans.
Obama Off The Trail, Biden Swinging Through Ohio
Barack Obama has no public events today, probably due to final preparations for tomorrow's debate. Joe Biden is touring Ohio today, with multiple events: A 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Warren, a 4 p.m. ET rally in St. Clairsville, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Marietta.
McCain And Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain and Sarah Palin are both campaigning today in Pennsylvania, a large swing state that has been slipping away from them in the polls. McCain is holding an 11:30 a.m. rally in Blue Bell, and Palin has a 2 p.m. ET rally in Scranton.
RNC Spending More And More Money On Ads
The Republican National Committee has shelled out $5 million to run two of their TV ads against Barack Obama -- one that attacks him as a Chicago machine politician, and the other that tags him as a big spender. The RNC has raised roughly $50 million more than the DNC, which has essentially made up for Barack Obama's cash advantage over John McCain's individual campaign committee.
McCain Camp Caught Lying About Crowd Sizes Again
The McCain campaign has again been caught puffing up the number of people who attend their rallies. The campaign claimed that 25,000 people attended John McCain's Virginia Beach rally -- but the venue only holds 16,000, and the fire marshall estimated that only 12,000 people were in attendance.
Sen. Graham: John Lewis Is "Playing The Race Card"
Appearing today on CBS' Face The Nation, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) hit back at Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) for comparing John McCain to George Wallace, and saying that McCain and Sarah Palin were fomenting an atmosphere of violent emotions against Barack Obama. "We're not going to be intimidated by this playing the race card," Graham said, going on to say that the campaign cannot be held responsible "for what one person says at a rally."
NYT: GOPers Unhappy With McCain Campaign The New York Timesreports that many Republicans are unhappy with the McCain campaign's current approach, and the lack of a coherent narrative. "You're starting to feel real frustration because we are running out of time," said Michigan GOP chairman Saul Anuzis. "Our message, the campaign's message, isn't connecting." In particular, there is serious disagreement about how to approach issues like the economy, and whether to go after Obama over Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Obama Off The Trail, Biden Campaigning With Bill And Hillary Barack Obama has no public events today. Joe Biden is holding a big rally today in Scranton, Pennsylvania, featuring Bill and Hillary Clinton, scheduled to begin at 3:15 p.m.
McCain Off The Trail, Palin in West Virginia, Ohio and Virginia.
John McCain does not have any public events scheduled for today. Instead, Sarah Palin is campaigning today in Huntsville, West Virginia, in St. Clairsville, Ohio, and in Norfolk, Virginia.
McCain Camp Backs Away From Minister's Rally Invocation
The McCain campaign was forced yesterday to release a statement backing away from an Iowa minister's invocation at a rally yesterday, in which he asked God to prevent an Obama victory on the grounds that people of other religions were praying for it to happen. The statement from campaign spokesperson Wendy Riemann said that "questions about the religious background of the candidates only serve to distract from the real questions in this race."
Poll: Obama Well Ahead In Colorado
A new survey of Colorado from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Barack Obama a healthy lead in this swing state. The numbers: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, outside of the ±2.7% margin of error
Poll: McCain Has Narrow Edge In Ohio
A new University of Cincinnati poll gives John McCain a 48%-46% advantage in Ohio, within the ±3.3% margin of error. The previous poll from a month ago gave McCain a 48%-42% lead.
Poll: Obama Takes Small Lead In Nevada
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada gives Barack Obama a 47%-45% in this perennial swing state. The previous poll from two months ago gave McCain a 46%-39% lead.
A new set of polls from Rasmussen shows Barack Obama further dominating in key swing states -- though McCain retains an edge in Ohio for this particular firm:
• Colorado: Obama ahead 51%-45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, Obama had a narrower 49%-48% edge.
• Florida: Obama up 52%-45%, outside the ±3% margin of error. Last week, the two candidates were tied at 47% each.
• Missouri: Obama up 50%-47%, within the ±3% margin of error. Three weeks ago, McCain was ahead 51%-46%.
• Ohio: McCain with a 48%-47% edge, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, McCain was up 47%-46%, pretty much the same as now.
• Virginia: Obama up 50%-48%, within the ±3% margin of error, not all that different from Obama's 50%-47% lead a week ago.
All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004, and all totaled they have 80 electoral votes. If John McCain were to lose even one from the Republican column, winning would become extremely difficult.
McCain's Brother Insults Northern Virginia
At a rally in the Northern Virginia swing area of Loudon County, John McCain's brother Joe McCain referred to the Dem strongholds of Alexandria and Arlington as "communist country." "This was Joe McCain's unsuccessful attempt at humor," said a McCain spokeswoman. "John McCain and Sarah Palin are committed to winning the support of voters in Northern Virginia and understand the region's importance to victory statewide."
Obama In North Carolina, Biden Off The Trail
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Asheville, North Carolina, with a rally scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. ET. Joe Biden does not have any public events, having cancelled his weekend campaign schedule due to a family medical emergency.
Palin Holds Rally In Deep-Red Nebraska
Sarah Palin has a rally today in Omaha, Nebraska, set to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET. It seems odd that Palin would have to go to rev up the party base in a state that is guaranteed to go their way -- but in this case, it's because Nebraska splits its electoral votes by Congressional district, and the Obama camp has been making a play for this area. John McCain is off the campaign trail, preparing for Tuesday's debate.
HuffPo: Palin's Latest Line Against Obama Is A Long-Discredited Smear The Huffington Postpoints out this morning that Sarah Palin has taken up a smear against Barack Obama that was discredited a year ago: That he said U.S. troops in Afghanistan were only killing civilians. In fact, Obama was addressing a problem that the White House and Pentagon have recognized as a serious concern, and the need to put more troops in Afghanistan in order to avoid such an impression becoming more widespread among the people there.
Poll: Obama Takes Big Lead In Ohio
The new Columbus Dispatch poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-42% lead in Ohio, outside of the ±2% margin of error. If Obama were to pick up Ohio for the Dems, it would become virtually impossible for John McCain to put together an Electoral College majority.
Poll: It's A Tie In Colorado
A new Mason-Dixon poll of Colorado shows a tied race in this key swing state, with Obama and McCain at 44% each. Back in August, Obama had a 45%-42% lead, not significantly different from this new number.
Poll: Obama Way Ahead In Minnesota
The new Star Tribune poll gives Barack Obama a 55%-37% lead in Minnesota, a state that hasn't voted GOP since 1972 but has been increasingly close in recent elections. A SurveyUSA poll from just a few days ago gave McCain a 47%-46% lead, and a CNN poll from a few days ago put Obama ahead 54%-43%, further complicating the picture here.
The McCain campaign has this new radio ad hammering Joe Biden's "no coal plants" gaffe, a serious economic issue in coal-producing states, with ads running in the battleground states of Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Here's the Ohio version:
"No coal plants here in America," Biden says. "We're not supporting clean coal."
"No coal plants in America?" the announcer says in disbelief. "No jobs in Ohio? No energy independence for America?"
At the time, the Obama camp jumped to say that Biden's remarks were taken out of context -- that he was criticizing China for building old-fashioned dirty coal plants, and that Obama and Biden support investments in cleaner coal technologies.
That said, the McCain campaign clearly sees this gaffe as a wedge issue they can use in the swing states to undercut Obama's superior reputation on economic issues.
The Obama campaign has released a new Spanish TV ad for Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Florida, hammering John McCain on the economy -- yet another indication of just how much the financial crisis has re-centered the campaign on issues like jobs, health care and housing, rather than foreign policy or immigration.
The ad goes after John McCain's remarks that the fundamentals of the economy are strong:
There is also a radio version that you can listen to here.
The English translation of the script is available after the jump.
New McCain Ad: Dems Don't Know What To Do About The Market
The Mccain campaign has another ad out on the economy, depicting Democrats as clueless on the economy -- and using some very interesting imagery:
Note that the "CEO rip-offs" line is accompanied by a shifty-looking pic of Franklin Raines, whom the McCain camp has accused the Obama campaign -- on scant evidence at best -- of receiving economic advice from. This is then followed by a photo of an innocent-looking middle-aged white woman.
Obama Ad: McCain Protects Companies That Hide Their Assets
Here's a new Obama national cable TV ad hitting John McCain on corporate accountability, hammering him for protecting tax breaks for companies that hide their profits offshore:
"McCain went to Bermuda," the announcer says. "And while he was there pledged to protect tax breaks for American corporations that hide their profits offshore. And grateful insurance company executives and their lobbyists who benefit from the tax scheme, gave McCain $50,000.
Obama Off The Trail, Biden In Virginia
Barack Obama does not have any public events today, probably because he's preparing for the first debate this Friday -- but he's also done a taped interview for the Today Show this morning. Joe Biden has an event as 12 p.m. ET in Woodbridge, Virginia, and he'll be speaking to the National Jewish Democratic Council in Washington at 5 p.m. ET.
McCain In Ohio And Michigan
John McCain is campaigning today in Ohio and Michigan, with a stop this morning in Middleburg, Ohio, and another this afternoon in Freeland, Michigan.
Palin Meets The World Leaders
This is Sarah Palin's big day at the U.N., where she'll be meeting Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
Polls: Obama Up In Colorado, Three Other Key States
A new round of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in four key battleground states. The numbers: Obama is up 49%-45% in Colorado, 48%-44% in Michigan, 47%-45% in Minnesota, and 49%-42% in Wisconsin. The margins of error are all ±2.7%, except in Colorado where it is ±2.6%.
Poll: Obama Ahead In Florida
A new NBC News poll gives Barack Obama a 47%-45% lead in Florida, within the ±4% margin of error. All the other recent polls have put McCain ahead in this state, but who knows, this might be the start of an uptrend for Obama.
McCain's Transition Head Lobbied For Freddie Mac
Here's yet another lobbyist-related headache for John McCain when it comes to his campaign's attacks on Barack Obama. Bloomberg reports that William Timmons, the lobbyist who McCain has tapped to head up his transition team should he be elected, lobbied for Freddie Mac from 2000 up until the government takeover.
Biden Walks Back Criticism Of Obama Ad
The Obama camp released this statement last night from Joe Biden, retracting his criticism of the campaign's ad that hits John McCain for being a computer-illiterate:
"I was asked about an ad I'd never seen, reacting merely to press reports. As I said right then, I knew there was nothing intentionally personal in the criticism of Senator McCain's views which look backwards not forwards and are out of touch with the new economic challenges we face today. Having now reviewed the ad, it is even more clear to me that given the disgraceful tenor of Senator McCain's ads and their persistent falsehoods, his campaign is in no position to criticize, especially when they continue to distort Barack's votes on an issue as personal as keeping kids safe from sexual predator."
The presidential race really could not be closer in the key swing states, according to a new round of Rasmussen polls, with ties in two states and near-ties in three others -- though on balance it's decent news for John McCain:
• In Colorado, McCain has a 48%-46% edge, within the ±4.5% margin of error. Last week, Obama was up 49%-46%, within the margin of error.
• In Florida, McCain is up 49%-44%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. Last week, it was a 48%-48% tie.
• In Ohio, McCain has a narrow 48%-45% lead, within the ±4.5% margin of error. Last week, McCain was ahead 51%-44%. This is the third poll today that gives McCain a lead in Ohio -- so we're inclined to think he's ahead.
• In Pennsylvania, it's a 47%-47% tie. Last week, Obama had a 47%-45% lead, within the margin of error.
• And in Virginia, it's a 48%-48% tie. Last week, Rasmussen had McCain up 49%-47%, within the margin of error.
Only one of these states, Pennsylvania, went for Kerry in 2004. So what we have here is the GOP playing some serious defense in four states they've previously won -- and the Dems having to work just as hard to hold on to a big prize of their own.
A new poll suggests that John McCain's bounce may have helped his numbers in the Western swing state of Colorado -- but he's still narrowly trailing Barack Obama, another sign that the bounce hasn't significantly changed the race in many of the key states.
The numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 48%, McCain 47%, within the ±3.2% margin of error. A month ago, Obama led by a 48%-44% margin in PPP's survey.
This comes after a Rasmussen poll yesterday of another Western state, New Mexico, where McCain took a 49%-47% edge after having trailed by four points a few weeks ago.
One interesting number in the new Colorado poll is that the selection of Sarah Palin doesn't seem to have moved women voters there. Obama leads among women by a 51%-43% margin, similar to his 49%-42% advantage a month ago. The real movement has been among men -- the two were tied 47%-47% a month ago, but now McCain has moved into a 50%-43% lead.
A new set of Rasmussen polls, all conducted yesterday in the middle of John McCain's post-convention bounce, suggests that this race remains close on the state-by-state level.
• In Colorado, Obama leads by a 49%-46% margin, actually an improvement for him since McCain's 49%-48% edge three weeks ago. Both results are within the margin of error.
• In Florida, the race is tied 48%-48%, compared to a 48%-46% McCain edge from about three weeks ago.
• In Ohio, McCain leads 51%-44%, compared to a 48%-43% lead for McCain from almost three weeks ago. Rasmussen has been the most favorable pollster for McCain in Ohio.
• In Pennsylvania, Obama has a slim 47%-45% edge, not significantly different from his 48%-45% lead two and a half weeks ago.
• In Virginia, McCain has a 49%-47% lead, not significantly changed from a 48%-47% McCain lead from over three weeks ago.
All five polls were conducted yesterday, and have a ±4.5 margin of error except for the Ohio survey, which has a ±4% margin error.
Separately, a new SurveyUSA poll of Virginia conducted this past Friday gives McCain an identical 49%-47% lead, with a ±3.7% margin of error. This is also not significantly changed from a 48%-47% McCain edge from over three weeks ago.
A new round of polls today shows a continued close race in four key battleground states that all voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but there is reason for cautious optimism about Barack Obama.
A new University of Akron poll shows Ohio to be tied: Obama 40%, McCain 40%. The internals show just how important Democratic unity is for Obama: Only 45% of people who voted for Hillary Clinton in the Ohio primary say they'll vote for Obama, with 29% going for McCain and the rest undecided -- but as this poll totally predates Hillary's big speech at the convention, this could change.
And a new round of CNN polls in three Western states shows Obama generally doing quite well:
• He's up 53%-40% in New Mexico, well outside the ±4% margin of error.
• He's up 49%-44% in Nevada, with a ±4% margin of error -- contrary to other recent polls that have McCain ahead here.
• However, McCain is given a slight edge in the potentially pivotal state of Colorado: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, with a ±4% margin of error. This poll was taken partly during the Dem Convention in Denver, so it's still possible that the convention in its entirety can produce a local bounce.
Late Update: In addition, the CNN poll has Obama up 48%-43% in Pennsylvania.
DNC Out-Raises RNC For First Time This Cycle
The Democratic National Committee has announced that they raised $27.7 million for the month of July, just edging out the RNC's $26 million, the first time this whole cycle that the usually-underfunded DNC has outdone the RNC. The DNC, including its joint committee with the Obama campaign, has $28.5 million cash on hand, bringing the Democratic total with the Obama campaign to $94.3 million -- just narrowly behind the Republicans' aggregate total of over $100 million on hand.
Obama Leaves Hawaii
Barack Obama's Hawaiian has come to an end last night, as the candidate left the islands to head back to the mainland and the campaign trail. Between now and November, it will be practically nothing but non-stop campaigning.
Obama And McCain To Appear At Saddleback Church Tonight
Barack Obama and John McCain will both be at Pastor Rick Warren's Saddleback Church tonight, where they will take questions separately from Warren on various national issues. Note that this is not a debate, in which the candidates would take questions simultaneously, though they are expected to share the stage for a brief photo opportunity. The event is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET.
Loretta Sanchez: Half Of House Dems Could Vote For Hillary At Convention
In an indication that the Democratic Convention could unintentionally give an appearance of Democratic disunity, Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez of California is predicting that up to half of the House Dems could end up voting for Hillary Clinton under an open roll call. "I felt she was the most experienced and the best candidate and I still feel that way," Sanchez added -- though for the record, it should be noted that Hillary herself has said she personally plans on voting for Obama.
McCain: Western State Water Compact Should Be Reopened
John McCain may have just gotten in trouble in the key swing state of Colorado, tellingThe Pueblo Chieftain that the 1922 water compact among Western states should be renegotiated. Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar responded by saying Mccain's position is "absolutely wrong and would only happen over my dead body," and that Colorado should fear losing more its water resources if negotiations are opened up again.
GOP Senate Candidate: Feds Raking In Cash On The Backs Of Oil Companies
And speaking of Colorado, the campaign of Democratic Senate nominee Mark Udall is sending around this tracker audio of Republican nominee Bob Schaffer complaining that the federal government is taking too much money from the oil companies. "But because prices are soaring, the reality is the federal government is raking in a bunch of cash right now on the backs of energy producers," Schaffer says -- perhaps not the most popular message this year:
A new Rasmussen poll of Colorado has some bad news for Democrats: John McCain has edged into a statistically insignificant lead in a state that has become a linchpin for Obama's strategy.
The numbers: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, with a ±4% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama held a narrow lead of 50%-47%. While the movement itself isn't significant, it is nevertheless a good sign that this whole election is going to be tightly contested to the very end.
Karl Rove wrote in The Wall St. Journal today that Colorado is set to be one of the four states that will decide this election, along with Michigan, Ohio and Virginia, and he thinks Obama is best-positioned to win this state. We'll see what happens.
A new survey of Colorado by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Barack Obama's lead holding steady in this Western swing state, a historically Republican area that Barack Obama is making a major play for thanks to its own Democratic shift in recent years.
The numbers: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a margin of error of ±3.2%. This is essentially unchanged from the 47%-43% lead that Obama had in PPP's last poll from a month ago. The internals show the two candidates tied at 47% each among male voters, and Obama taking the lead thanks to a 49%-42% edge with women.
Also, the poll gives Dem candidate Mark Udall a 47%-41% lead over Republican Bob Schaffer in this state's open Senate race, in which the two candidates are competing to succeed retiring GOPer Wayne Allard.
If John McCain can't hold on to Colorado, which has only voted Dem once in the last 40 years, the road suddenly looks steep for him: Unless he can pick up a Kerry state to balance it out, he'd need to sweep Florida, Ohio and Virginia, plus take either Iowa or New Mexico -- and Obama has been well ahead in recent polls for those last two.
Uh, oh. Conventional wisdom holds that McCain's campaign is tanking and has been an all-around disorganized mess, but a new round of polling from Quinnipiac suggests John McCain could be making major headway in key swing states. He's also taken the lead in Colorado, where Barack Obama is making a major play for support.
Here are the latest numbers, compared to Quinnipiac's previous poll from a month ago:
Colorado McCain (R) 46% (+2) Obama (D) 44% (-5)
Michigan Obama (D) 46% (-2) McCain (R) 42% (+0)
Minnesota Obama (D) 46% (-8) McCain (R) 44% (+7)
Wisconsin Obama (D) 50% (-1) McCain (R) 39% (+0)
From the pollster's analysis: "Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit. It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain."
A new poll suggests that Barack Obama is ahead in Colorado, a Western state that his campaign is actively targeting to turn from red to blue -- but at the same time, a lot of undecideds could be headed towards John McCain.
The new numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, consistent with other polls that have shown a close race here. Before leaners were factored in, it was Obama ahead 49%-42%, meaning that John McCain could really pick up here as more people make up their minds during a tough campaign.
The stakes in Colorado are enormous: Flipping Colorado is one of the few routes that gets Obama to the White House in the event of losses in Florida and Ohio.
A new poll suggests that John McCain's bounce may have helped his numbers in the Western swing state of Colorado -- but he's still narrowly trailing Barack Obama, another sign that the bounce hasn't significantly changed the race in many of the key states.
A new set of Rasmussen polls, all conducted yesterday in the middle of John McCain's post-convention bounce, suggests that this race remains close on the state-by-state level.
