These new national poll numbers just out from Newsweek are a bit startling:

A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.

A caveat on whether this is a drop: Newsweek had previously been something of an outlier in Obama's favor; this poll is a bit more in line with other national surveys. But Newsweek says the FISA change and other shifts (though he didn't actually shift on faith-based initiatives) are damaging Obama:

Obama's reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.

That Obama is a typical politican/flip-flopper, of course, is the GOP/McCain message, just as it was in the past two presidential elections, and it's again being amplified by the national media, like last time and the time before. One has to hope that this doesn't mean it's gaining traction. On the other hand, the internals don't show any previous numbers for comparison, so it's hard to see whether there's been movement on this question.

The poll finds a swing in independents back to McCain:

In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.

On the other hand, the notion that Obama lost 14 points among indys seems hard to believe. But the survey finds the false Obama-is-a-Muslim rumor is alive and kicking:

Twelve percent of voters surveyed said that Obama was sworn in as a United States senator on a Qur'an, while 26 percent believe the Democratic candidate was raised as a Muslim and 39 percent believe he attended a Muslim school as a child growing up in Indonesia. None of these things is true.

Finally, at the end of the piece, Newsweek tells us the good news for Obama:

Concerns that he would be unable to unite the Democratic Party after the bruising fight against Clinton appear to be unfounded. Only 17 percent of former Clinton supporters say they will vote for McCain in the general election, and 19 percent of undecided voters are former supporters of the New York senator. But 61 percent of registered voters who support Obama say they support him strongly, compared to just 39 percent who say they strongly support McCain.

Happy weekend, everyone!

As you may have heard by now, Barack Obama voted for the FISA cave-in bill in the Senate today, and Hillary voted against it.

Hillary has now explained her vote in a new statement...

The legislation also makes no meaningful change to the immunity provisions. There is little disagreement that the legislation effectively grants retroactive immunity to the telecommunications companies. In my judgment, immunity under these circumstances has the practical effect of shutting down a critical avenue for holding the administration accountable for its conduct. It is precisely why I have supported efforts in the Senate to strip the bill of these provisions, both today and during previous debates on this subject. Unfortunately, these efforts have been unsuccessful...

Congress must vigorously check and balance the president even in the face of dangerous enemies and at a time of war. That is what sets us apart. And that is what is vital to ensuring that any tool designed to protect us is used -- and used within the law -- for that purpose and that purpose alone. I believe my responsibility requires that I vote against this compromise, and I will continue to pursue reforms that will improve our ability to collect intelligence in our efforts to combat terror and to oversee that authority in Congress.

Her full statement after the jump.

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With the Senate vote on the FISA cave-in bill set to take place later this morning, the McCain camp moved to take charge of the FISA news cycle, blasting Obama as a flip-flopper and an opportunist in a new statement...

"A few short months ago, Barack Obama outwardly opposed terrorist surveillance legislation, saying that he would filibuster any bill that includes immunity for American telecommunications companies that had been asked by the government to participate in the program. Today, the U.S. Senate will approve legislation providing the immunity Barack Obama supposedly opposed, and despite his promise, he will not support a filibuster. What Barack Obama will do is show that he's willing to change positions, break campaign commitments and undermine his own words in his quest for higher office."

The vote is set to take place at 11:15. We'll bring you Obama's response if and when it comes.

For the first time, Barack Obama has publicly addressed the group that was formed on his Web site to urge him to change his position on the FISA cave-in bill.

Obama responded with a long statement on his site. He continued to defend his support for the bill by saying it was better than a previous version.

But he gave kudos to his opponents for organizing against it, suggesting that the Obama campaign is hoping to offset the damage supporting the bill has caused by demonstrating a willingness to engage opponents, and by giving props to dissenters and to the idea of dissent -- even on his own site.

"Now, I understand why some of you feel differently about the current bill, and I'm happy to take my lumps on this side and elsewhere," Obama wrote. "For the truth is that your organizing, your activism and your passion is an important reason why this bill is better than previous versions."

"Democracy cannot exist without strong differences," Obama also wrote. "And going forward, some of you may decide that my FISA position is a deal breaker. That's ok. But I think it is worth pointing out that our agreement on the vast majority of issues that matter outweighs the differences we may have."

This won't do a great deal to make opponents of the bill happy. But it's a minor victory for those who built this group that Obama ultimately felt the need to respond to it. The rest of Obama's response here.

Yes, this is today's daily FISA post, and yes, you'll get mad about it, but this needs to be flagged.

The networking group set up on Obama's Web site with the sole purpose of urging him to oppose the FISA cave-in bill has now rocketed up to the number one group on his site, with over 14,000 members.

This comes roughly a week after the group was created. Separately, the group continues to get national press coverage, with a story about it in this morning's USA Today.

And with that, you've read the last post this blog will do about the group. Probably.

The networking group set up on MyBarackObama.com to oppose Obama's support for the FISA cave-in started as a mere trickle last week. But the group has grown and grown, and now it's gone national with a story about it in this morning's New York Times:

Senator Barack Obama's decision to support legislation granting legal immunity to telecommunications companies that cooperated with the Bush administration's program of wiretapping without warrants has led to an intense backlash among some of his most ardent supporters.

Thousands of them are now using the same grass-roots organizing tools previously mastered by the Obama campaign to organize a protest against his decision.

In recent days, more than 7,000 Obama supporters have organized on a social networking site on Mr. Obama's own campaign Web site. They are calling on Mr. Obama to reverse his decision...

Today's New York Post also has a story today on this that generously quotes yours truly. I hear another reporter for a major national daily is working on a story on it for tomorrow.

This is something. On Friday I noted that someone had set up a social networking group on MyBarackObama.com specifically devoted to opposing Obama's decision to support the FISA cave.

Well, since then it's grown rapidly: It now has over 4,000 members.

That's six times the 500 or so it had on Friday. It's a strong signal from Obama's own supporters that they won't sit idly by when he takes a position that they view as a betrayal of the change movement he's building.

It's also a suggestion that the powerful social networking tools spawned by Obama's formidable Web operation could end up being used to pressure Obama on this or that issue, should he become President. You can sign up for the anti-FISA-cave group right here.

There's been a bunch of speculation about what will happen after the election to the formidable Internet social networking tools Obama's Internet operation has spawned, such as the networking groups over at MyBarackObama, for instance.

Well, here's one interesting possibility: What if they were used in some way to oppose Obama on one issue or another?

That's already happened in one case. Over on Barack Obama's Web site, someone has set up a new social networking group devoted solely to getting Obama to oppose the FISA bill he announced his support for earlier this week.

It's got almost 500 members, which is dwarfed by other MyBo groups, though it's only been existence for 24 hours. This is perhaps suggestive of what this machinery could be used for on occasion if Obama makes it into the White House.

Looks like the Senate vote on the FISA cave legislation, which was set for as early as today or tomorrow, has been postponed until Senators come back from recess in July:

Objections by Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) will push back an overhaul of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) until after lawmakers return in July, Democratic leaders said Thursday. Feingold is strongly opposed to language that would likely give telephone companies that participated in warrantless surveillance retroactive immunity from lawsuits.

"It doesn't look like it," Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said of taking up the FISA bill this week. "Sen. Feingold wants additional time and would like to postpone it until after the Fourth of July."

It's possible that this could make life a bit tougher for Senators who support the legislation and wanted to put the vote on it behind them. And it's certainly a setback for the measure's champions in the House, such as Rep. Steny Hoyer, who have been eager to get the cave-in bill signed into law already.

At a presser today, Obama weighed in again on the FISA cave, and suffice it to say that what he said won't make opponents any less unhappy about Obama's position than they were already.

Asked specifically why he's supporting the current FISA bill when he'd promised months ago to support a filibuster of an earlier version of the bill, Obama suggested flat out that "national security" overrides the question of telecom immunity...

It's true that Obama says mitigating things like we need to be "watching the watchers." But here's the key quote from him:

"The bill has changed. So I don't think the security threats have changed, I think the security threats are similar. My view on FISA has always been that the issue of the phone companies per se is not one that overrides the security interests of the American people."

Obama's line on national security here seems to be affirmation of something that many understood already: That he will support the bill even if telecom immunity isn't stripped from it, despite his promise to try to get immunity out of the legislation. If the issue of telecom immunity doesn't override national security, he'll of course vote for the bill with or without it.

Separately, the developing politics of this are interesting. Today Harry Reid announced that he will oppose the bill. Many Democrats are now asking, What will Hillary do?

Tea leaf readers note that Hillary's New York colleague, Chuck Schumer, also announced today that he's voting against it. Will Hillary follow suit? It seems like a huge opening for her to repair relations with progressives angry with her over her treatment of Obama during primary. On the other hand, some Dems note a complicating factor: If Hillary votes against the bill, it could cast a bit of a shadow over the planned "unity" Hillary-Obama event on Friday.

Stay tuned.

Late Update: Video added.

Here's what's so dispiriting about it. One of the riveting things about Barack Obama's candidacy is that since the outset of the campaign he's seemed absolutely dead serious about changing the way foreign policy is discussed and argued about in this country.

Time and again, in his debates with Hillary, and now with John McCain, his whole debate posture on national security issues was centered on the idea that he could challenge and change what it means to talk "tough." His candidacy has long seemed to embody a conviction that Democrats can win arguments with Republicans about national security -- that if Dems stick to a set of core principles, and forcefully argue for them without blinking, they can and will persuade people that, simply put, they are right and Republicans are wrong.

Obama has done this already in this general election -- repeatedly. And no doubt he will do it again and again and again in the months ahead. Not this time.

To be clear, I'm not even talking about whether opposing this would or wouldn't have carried political peril. It really doesn't matter. Because if there were ever anything that would have tested his operating premise throughout this campaign -- that you can win arguments with Republicans about national security -- it was this legislation. If ever there were anything that deserved to test this premise, it was this legislation.

And this time, he abandoned that premise.

Late Update: Glenn Greenwald, a leading critic of Obama on this, sends me his skeptical take on why he thinks Obama's promise to work on the bill in the Senate doesn't change anything:

"I think we do a grave disservice if we try to convince people that Obama is really going to work to get amnesty out of the bill. Reid is already saying it's just theater -- they know it's going to fail -- it's just a way, Reid said, to let people "express themselves." It's all designed to let Obama say, once he votes for this bill: "Well, I tried to get amnesty out." He's going to vote for amnesty -- and his statement today seals the fate of this bill. Why sugar coat that?"

Hmmm. This one isn't great timing, now is it.

On the very same day that the House Dems passed the new FISA cave, Speaker Nancy Pelosi blasted out a fundraising email this afternoon with this...

As Speaker, I can tell you that we need a Democrat in the White House and a strong Democratic majority in Congress to drive change forward. Our June 30th FEC deadline is vital to our success in November. All eyes will be on Democrats' fundraising totals as a measure of our party's unity and strength.I ask that you please help to show our commitment to across-the-board victories this November by making a contribution of $35, $50 or more...

It's just not a good day for House Dems to be asking rank-and-file Dems for money, let alone promising strength. As TPM Reader SM, who forwarded us the email, said of this promise of a "strong" Dem majority:

"All I want is one with a spine."

This just in: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has yanked the Senate FISA renewal bill containing telecom immunity off the floor. That means it won't be debated until next year.

Senator Chris Dodd had planned to filibuster the bill this evening, and it didn't look as if the other Senators running for President -- Hillary, Obama, Biden -- would lend support for the filibuster in person. Now the question's moot -- until January.

Why did Reid pull the bill now? "Sen. Reid refused to jam this bill through the Senate because he believes it’s an important bill that deserves to be debated thoroughly," a Reid aide told us.

But Dodd aides expressed satisfaction, saying that the Connecticut Senator's filibuster threat was what stopped the bill for the time being. They vowed that he'd be back to fight it again in January.

Earlier today we asked whether the Senators running for President -- Hillary, Obama, Biden -- would be on hand to support Chris Dodd's planned filibuster of the Senate FISA bill containing telecom immunity. First out of the box with a statement is Obama:

"Senator Obama unequivocally opposes giving retroactive immunity to telecommunications companies and has cosponsored Senator Dodd's efforts to remove that provision from the FISA bill. Granting such immunity undermines the constitutional protections Americans trust the Congress to protect. Senator Obama supports a filibuster of this bill, and strongly urges others to do the same. It's not clear whether he can return for the vote, but under the Senate rules, the side trying to end a filibuster must produce 60 votes to cut off debate. Whether he is present for the vote for not, Senator Obama will not be among those voting to end the filibuster."

The issue here isn't just the 60 votes. Dodd is hoping that his fellow Senators will be on hand to ask questions during his filibuster, which under Senate rules would allow him to take breaks from talking and take a sip of water while keeping his filibuster alive. Obama seems to be saying he might do this. We'll see what happens, if anything.

On a conference call with reporters just moments ago, Chris Dodd's deputy campaign manager, Amos Hochstein, just vowed that the Senator will filibuster the Senate FISA bill containing telecom immunity later this afternoon for as long as he possibly can hold out.

"He will speak as long as he can," Hochstein said. "He will speak until he can no longer."

Asked how long he would be willing to stay away from Iowa, where he needs to be campaigining, Hochstein said: "As much as we'd love to be in Iowa, this is extremely important to the Senator."

The question now is, What will other Senators who said they'd support Dodd's filibuster do today? Senators Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden have all pledged to support it. They can do so under Senate rules by asking questions during Dodd's filibuster, giving him a chance to rest or to take a drink of water. Will they?

"Senators Clinton and Obama have indicated their support," Hochstein said. "I believe that they are in Iowa. I hope they are here to help Senator Dodd in his filibuster today. You should ask them."

Stay tuned.

Some liberals think House Dem leader Steny Hoyer is weak on the telecom immunity issue, but it needs to be said that he has now delivered a speech in which he said some very forceful stuff in opposition to keeping telecom immunity in the revised FISA bill:

"Finally, this legislation is silent on the issue of retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies that possibly violated privacy laws in turning over consumer information – because Congress does not have full access to information about what the companies did.

"Simply stated, it would be grossly irresponsible for Congress to grant blanket immunity for companies without even knowing whether their conduct was legal or not. And, importantly, this view is shared by the Chairman and Ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

"Until we understand what legal authorities were used to justify the terrorist surveillance program, there does not appear to be any practicable way to include retroactive immunity in this bill."

Though he appears to be suggesting that his opposition to immunity might be tempered if he gets access to the White House documents that the Senate intel community reviewed before producing a bill containing immunity, this is nonetheless some pretty toughly-worded opposition. The question, as Atrios says, is whether he'll back these words up with legislative action.

Dodd spokesman Hari Sevugan sends over the following statement on Obama's support for filibustering any FISA bill with telecom immunity, and Hillary's refusal to go that far:

There is some confusion as to what Senators Clinton and Obama meant in their statements, and we are pleased that Senator Obama has attempted to be more definitive in his position today.

We hope that other candidates will follow Chris Dodd’s lead in unequivocally stating that they will filibuster any FISA bill that contains retroactive immunity for telecom companies -- because this issue demands clarity.

It's official: Obama will back a filibuster of any Senate FISA legislation containing telecom immunity, his campaign has just told Election Central. The Obama campaign has just sent over the following statement from spokesman Bill Burton:

"To be clear: Barack will support a filibuster of any bill that includes retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies."

As we reported here yesterday, MoveOn and a dozen top liberal bloggers were preparing to wage an aggressive campaign today to pressure Obama and Hillary to say that they'll support Chris Dodd's vow to filibuster any Senate FISA bill containing telecom immunity. And late yesterday both Obama and Hillary put out statements saying that they'd back Dodd's threatened filibuster of the current legislation that's just come out of the Senate intel committee.

Those statements, however, lacked the clarity that immunity opponents have been looking for, so today the MoveOn and lib blogger campaign has been in full swing. MoveOn emailed members this morning urging them to call Obama and Hillary and...

Tell him/her the public is counting on him/her to filibuster any bill that gives immunity to phone companies that broke the law.

Now we have Obama's answer: He'll support a filibuster of any such bill.

When informed of Obama's decision, MoveOn expressed relief. "Excellent -- this is the kind of leadership we need to see from the Democratic candidates," MoveOn spokesman Adam Green told Election Central. "Dodd, Biden, and Obama all agree. Will Clinton get on board?"

At a press availability in Colorado a little while ago, Hillary commented on the Senate FISA bill and said that she would support a filibuster of the current legislation that's just emerged from the Senate intel committee, which contains telecom immunity.

Here's the transcript, which was just sent to us moments ago by her campaign:

Q: Can you discuss your position on the reauthorization of the FISA bill?

HRC: I am troubled by the concerns that have been raised by the recent legislation reported out of the Intelligence Committee. I haven't seen it so I can't express an opinion about it. But I don't trust the Bush Administration with our civil rights and liberties. So I'm going to study it very hard. As matters stand now, I could not support it and I would support a filibuster absent additional information coming forward that would convince me differently.

Dodd has said that he will filibuster any legislation with telecom immunity in it. As reported below, MoveOn and around 10 top liberal bloggers are preparing to wage a campaign against Hillary and Obama demanding that they say they'll support a hold on, and filibuster of, any such legislation, not just this specific bill. Obama issued a statement earlier today saying that he would support a filibuster of the current bill.

Obama spokesman Bill Burton sends over this statement in response to our story saying that MoveOn and the top liberal bloggers are teaming up to press Hillary and Obama to get Chris Dodd's back on the threatened filibuster:

"Senator Obama has serious concerns about many provisions in this bill, especially the provision on giving retroactive immunity to the telephone companies. He is hopeful that this bill can be improved by the Senate Judiciary Committee. But if the bill comes to the Senate floor in its current form, he would support a filibuster of it."

No direct mention of Dodd, but clearly supporting Dodd's idea of filibustering this bill. We obviously don't know what the ultimate bill will look like, but Obama can't really be expected to comment on theoreticals, and this represents at least a quasi-declaration of opposition to telecom immunity in general.

Late Update: Just to clarify, this statement, like Hillary's, in no way represents support for Dodd's threat to filibuster any bill containing telecom immunity.

Another interesting twist in the Dodd-FISA story.

In a move that will up the pressure on Hillary and Barack Obama to stand firm against the Senate telecom immunity FISA bill, MoveOn and a dozen top progressive blogs will launch an all-out campaign tomorrow to pressure the two Senators into publicly declaring their support for Chris Dodd's threat to place a hold on and filibuster the bill, Election Central has learned.

MoveOn spokesman Adam Green tells me that the group will send out an email to "thousands" of its members tomorrow morning, and thousands more throughout the day, asking them to call the offices of Hillary and Obama and demand that they publicly affirm their support for Dodd.

"We'll be asking Obama and Clinton to publicly get Chris Dodd's back and say in a statement that they will explicitly support his hold and filibuster," Green tells me. "Pretty much this is the exact same ask made to Joe Biden in a Washington Post chat. The question was, Will you join Chris Dodd? He said Yes."

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As promised, here it is, emailed out by the Dodd campaign to supporters:

Amping up his efforts to block the Senate FISA bill containing retroactive immunity for the telecom companies, Senator Chris Dodd's campaign says that he will filibuster the measure if the Dem Senate leadership tries to circumvent the hold he plans to put on the bill.

The Dodd campaign will reveal his plans to filibuster the measure in an email being sent out to supporters by the campaign's Web guru, Tim Tagaris. Election Central obtained an advance copy of the email.

The threatened filibuster, which comes a day after Dodd revealed to Election Central that he will place a hold on the bill, will place Dodd in direct confrontation with the Dem Senate leadership on a hugely contentious issue.

Dodd's filibuster threat comes in response to reports -- based on anonymous quotes from the leadership's office -- which said that Reid's aides think they can get the bill to the floor despite Dodd's hold.

Here's the email from the Dodd campaign:

Are you willing to go to the mat to restore the Constitution?

Just last night, we heard there are plans to disregard Senator Dodd's intention to place a hold on a FISA bill that includes amnesty for telecommunications companies.

That would be a pretty extraordinary move, but Chris Dodd has pledged to stop this horrible bill any way he can.

So if the hold is not honored, he is prepared to go to the Senate floor and filibuster.

Rolling back the Bush Administration assault on the rule of law has been a major focus of Chris Dodd's work in the Senate -- and it's also a centerpiece in his campaign for President.

I'm also told that Dodd will send out a video to supporters later in the day in which he discusses the filibuster.

More in a bit.

Late Update: Here's the video of Dodd promising the filibuster.