This, from the Associated Press, is just fascinating:

More Floridians voted for John McCain than Barack Obama on Election Day, but the Democrat sealed his victory in the state by winning more early and absentee votes.

An Associated Press study of 94 percent of the state's total shows that the Republican beat Obama by almost 5 percentage points on Nov. 4, but Obama trumped McCain by 11 percentage points in early and absentee balloting. Overall, Obama beat McCain 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent in Florida, becoming only the third Democrat in 11 presidential elections to carry the state.

In other words, early and absentee voting put Obama over the top in this key Bush state. Keep in mind that the Obama campaign was very aggressive in pushing supporters to vote early, with Obama or his wife Michelle, or Joe Biden, or other surrogates pushing the message at virtually every rally.

Chalk this up as just another way that the Obama campaign revolutionized modern campaigns -- from now on, no serious presidential campaign will dare not attempt a sophisticated early-voting strategy. And it's yet another reminder, as if you needed one, of just how well-planned and executed the Obama campaign really was.

SurveyUSA has its final polls out in the big swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania, and both show Barack Obama ahead.

The numbers from Florida show a very narrow advantage for Barack Obama -- thanks in large part to the campaign's early-vote campaign. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, a three-point lead with a ±3.8% margin of error. Two weeks ago, McCain had a 49%-47% edge.

The internals show Obama winning the early vote 58%-40%, with an estimated 58% of the total likely vote already cast. McCain wins the remaining likely voters 56%-38%, helping him to close the gap somewhat.

The ultimate result, then, depends on how many voters there really are left, and to what degree they break for McCain.

On top of that, their final poll from Pennsylvania doesn't show any good news for McCain. Obama has a lead of nine points, 52%-43%, compared to yesterday's poll that showed a 51%-44% Obama lead. If Obama picks up red states like Florida or other big gets like Virginia, and McCain can't poach Pennsylvania from the Democratic column, it will be a very bad night for the GOP.

As we head into Election Day tomorrow, a look at polls reveals a fact that hasn't truly sunk in: Tomorrow is not truly Election Day, but more like the end of the Election Weeks, with the Obama campaign having built up substantial leads in early-vote states, which John McCain has to overcome if he wants to pull off a win.

Take a look at these examples:

• In Florida, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 56%-42% among early voters, with an estimated 56% of the total likely vote now cast. McCain is ahead 54%-43% with the rest, for an overall top-line of Obama 50%, McCain 48%.

• In Nevada, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 57%-43% among early voters, with an estimated 71% of the total likely vote already cast. McCain is up 57%-38% among the remaining votes, for an overall top-line result of Obama 51%, McCain 47% -- but McCain would need to win the remaining voters by more than two to one, if these estimates are accurate.

• In Ohio, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead 60%-36% among the early voters, with an estimated 30% of the total vote already cast. McCain is ahead 51%-43% among the remainder, for an overall top-line of Obama 48%, McCain 46%. But the pollster's analysis expresses serious doubt about whether McCain can get the needed extra margin to overcome Obama's early-vote lead, based on the demographics of the remaining voters.

It's worth remembering that a whole lot of those Obama campaign rallies over the last few weeks were officially billed as being "Early Vote For Change" rallies, in which Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Michelle Obama or some other surrogate would take a moment out from the standard talk about change and hope in order to deliver a civics lesson about how to vote early, and why the audience members should do it right after the rally.

In short, the Obama campaign didn't wait for Election Day to execute their get-out-the-vote strategy. They've been very actively pursuing it this whole time, bringing voters out early so they wouldn't have to worry about it as much on Election Day. And if he narrowly wins any of these red states tomorrow, that strategy may end up having been the decisive factor.

A new round of Zogby state polls shows tight races in key battlegrounds -- but John McCain is not faring well in his new linchpin state of Pennsylvania, and Barack Obama has plenty of opportunities to pick up red states:

• Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Indiana: McCain 49%, Obama 44%, compared to last week's 50%-44% McCain lead.

• Missouri: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 48%-46% Obama lead.

• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, compared to last week's 48%-44% Obama lead.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, compared to last week's 50%-45% Obama lead.

• Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%, with no previous Zogby poll for comparison.

• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, compared to last week's 52%-45% Obama lead.

All of these polls have a ±4.1% margin of error, and all of these states except Pennsylvania went to George W. Bush twice. If we gave Obama all the states where Zogby currently puts him ahead, he would gain 66 electoral votes from the Republican column, which would give him a comfortable Electoral College victory, presuming he wins all the Kerry states.

Uh oh. Not a whole lot of crowd enthusiasm at John McCain's first event today in Florida, as per the St. Petersburg Times's political blog:

About 30 minutes before John McCain is scheduled to lead a rally outside Raymond James Stadium, looks like maybe 1,000 people here. What's up with that? On the day before the election? Bush drew at least 15,000 people to a rally just across the street on the Sunday before the 04 election.

"We are the quiet majority that goes out and gets things done..I smell victory,'' said state Rep. Kevin Ambler. Good thing he smells it, because it's hard to see it with this crowd.

Meanwhile, at least as many have already turned up at Obama's Florida event, even though it's not scheduled to begin for at least two hours.

Quinnipiac: Obama Ahead in Big Three
The final Quinnipiac polls of the largest three swing states give Barack Obama stable leads of various margins: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 47%-45%, unchanged from a week ago; Obama ahead by seven points in Ohio, 50%-43, compared to a 51%-42% lead a week ago; and Obama up by ten points in Pennsylvania, 52%-42%, compared to a 53%-41% lead a week ago. The poll of Florida has a ±2.3% margin of error, and the polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania have a ±2.5% margin of error.

PPP Also Shows Obama Ahead In Big Three
The new state polls from Public Policy Polling also paint a cautiously optimistic picture for Obama in the Big Three: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 50%-48%, compared to a 48%-47% Obama edge two weeks ago; Obama ahead two points in Ohio, 50%-48%, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead a week and a half ago; and Obama up by eight points in Pennsylvania, 53%-45%, with no prior PPP survey for comparison. The margins of error are ±2.4% in Florida, ±2.8% in Ohio, and ±2.5%.

Barack Obama In Florida, North Carolina And Virginia; Michelle In Nevada And Colorado
Barack Obama has a morning rally in Jacksonville, Florida, a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, and will then finish out the campaign with a 9 p.m. ET rally in Manassas, Virginia. Michelle Obama will hold a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Littleton, Colorado.

Biden In Missouri, Ohio -- And Pennsylvania
Joe Biden is holding a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Lee's Summit, Missouri, a 3:45 p.m. ET rally in Zanesville, Ohio, a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Copley, Ohio, and finally a 10 p.m. ET rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

McCain In Six States Today
John McCain has a very busy schedule for the final day of the campaign: An 8:55 a.m. ET rally in Tampa, Florida, an 11:45 a.m. rally in Blountville, Tennessee; a 1:50 p.m. ET rally in Moon Township, Pennsylvania; a 4 p.m. ET rally in Indianapolis; an 8 p.m. ET rally in Roswell, New Mexico; and a 10:45 p.m. ET rally in Henderson, Nevada. The inclusion of Tennessee seems rather curious -- this one is widely viewed as a safe state, and he could probably spend his time more usefully in other states.

Palin Doing Six Events In Five States
Sarah Palin also has a very big day ahead of her: A 9:15 a.m. ET rally in Lakewood, Ohio; a 1 p.m. ET rally in Jefferson City, Missouri; a 4 p.m. ET rally in Dubuque, Iowa; a 7:45 p.m. ET rally in Colorado Springs; an 11:30 p.m. ET rally in Reno, Nevada; and a 1:30 a.m. ET rally in Elko, Nevada.

Roughly 27 Million Votes Already Cast
The Associated Press reports that over 27 million ballots were already cast up through Saturday night, the most recent time for which the data is available. Polling data suggests that Barack Obama has carried the early vote handily this year, meaning that John McCain will need to win the votes cast on Election Day by a strong margin.

McCain: Tuesday We "Take America In A New Direction"
John McCain declared at a midnight rally in Miami, "There's just one day left until we take America in a new direction." The heckling opportunities on this one are just too obvious.

Still another round of battleground state polling -- this one from Mason-Dixon -- shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting seven key Bush states by narrow margins.

If these numbers hold up, it would mean an overall victory for Obama:

• Colorado: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

• Missouri: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.

• Nevada: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 46%.

• Ohio: McCain 47%, Obama 45%.

• Virginia: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

All these polls have a margin of error of ±4%. The four states where Obama is ahead add up to 54 electoral votes, with another 46 votes in the states where McCain is ahead. And all 100 of those electoral votes went to Bush last time. If Obama holds the Kerry states, and tacks on those 46 -- heck, if he tacks on another 18 -- he's the next President.

Mason-Dixon has tended to paint a rosier picture for McCain than other pollsters out there, and even they are in effect forecasting a McCain loss.

Chuck Todd and the gang at MSNBC's First Read have a nice little scooplet (no link yet):

Tomorrow, according to sources, Al and Tipper Gore will be stumping for Obama in West Palm and Ft. Lauderdale. It's the first time he's campaigned in Florida for president since 2000. While he's campaigned in the Sunshine State since 2000, he's not done so for a presidential candidate since he himself was running.

The image of Gore in Florida, for obvious reasons, will be a powerful one for rank-and-file Dems. Also note the extraordinary amount of attention that the Obama camp is lavishing on the state in the home stretch.

Bill Clinton was there yesterday with Obama, who holds a rally there this morning, and now Gore tomorrow. You have to imagine that all the Dem activity in this state, which was supposed to be an easy win for McCain, is rattling the McCain team like nothing else.

Late Update: Gore spokesperson Kalee Kreider emails to confirm that the events are indeed set to go.

The new CNN polls confirm the conventional wisdom that Barack Obama is close to locking up Colorado and Virgnia -- a combination that would would deliver him the presidency if he holds on to all the Kerry states -- and he's running strong in other swing states, too:

• Colorado: Obama 53%, McCain 45%. Two weeks ago, Obama led 51%-47%.

• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, not all that different from the 51%-46% Obama lead two weeks ago.

• Georgia: McCain 52%, Obama 47%. This is not significantly changed from the 53%-45% McCain lead a week ago -- but it is significantly different from the 17-point win that George W. Bush had here in 2004, and could have serious implications in down-ticket races.

• Missouri: McCain 50%, Obama 48%, basically the same as a 49%-48% McCain lead two weeks ago.

• Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, not significantly changed from the 54%-44% Obama lead two weeks ago.

All five of these states went to George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 75 electoral votes. These surveys all have a margin of error of ±3.5%.

As noted above, Virginia and Colorado together would guarantee Obama the presidency if he can hold all the other Kerry states -- an assumption that seems like a pretty safe bet at this point.

The newest polls in the big three swing states paint a very clear picture: Obama seems to be pulling away in Ohio, and to a lesser extent in Florida, while his big lead in Pennsylvania is holding steady.

Here are all the latest polls from just the last few days, beginning with some new Quinnipiac polling out this morning:

Florida

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

Oct 27 Datamar: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 27 Suffolk: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 46%

Ohio

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 42%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 28 SurveyUSA: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 26 Univ. of Akron: Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 25 Univ. of Cincinnati: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 24 PPP (D): Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%

Pennsylvania

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 28 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 28 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Temple Univ.: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 26 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 25 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 24 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

McCain is trying to make a last stand in Pennsylvania, but there's really no evidence that it is in any way working at all. And without Pennsylvania, if he loses either Ohio or Florida, both of them Bush states, then the game is basically over.

Florida governor and leading McCain surrogate Charlie Crist signs an executive order today extending the early voting hours in this crucial swing state where Obama is giving McCain the fight of his life:

Effective immediately, early voting sites will be open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m., through Friday, October 31, 2008, and for a total of 12 hours between 7:00 a.m. on Saturday, November 1, and 7:00 p.m. on Sunday, November 2, 2008.

Of the 2.1 million Florida voters who have already voted, 45% have been registered Dems and 40% have been Republicans.

So this extension, which Crist did in consultation with other local officials, is certainly no favor to McCain from Crist, who's reportedly been at odds with the McCain campaign for various reasons.

The new set of Rasmussen swing-state polls shows Barack Obama continuing to lead in Colorado and Virginia, and running close with John McCain in a few other battlegrounds:

• Colorado: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead last week. Most recent polls have given Obama a lead of about this much or even more, and the state should be considered as leaning towards Obama.

• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-48% McCain edge last week. Other polls show a tight race here, and it should be seen as a real toss-up with a possible slight Obama lean.

• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead last week. This state is a true toss-up.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to a 50%-48% McCain lead from late last week. This formerly reliably-red state is also a genuine toss-up now, with other polls giving a similarly narrow lead to either candidate.

• Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, compared to a 49%-47% McCain lead last week. Most of the recent polls give Obama a lead about in line with this one.

• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 54%-44% Obama lead from last week. Most other recent polls have Obama ahead by a much bigger margin -- but they all agree that he is ahead.

These polls all have a ±3% margin of error.

All six of these states went for George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 95 electoral votes.

It's hard to overstate just how damaging it would be for John McCain if he loses either Colorado or Virginia, let alone both. With Obama on track for solid wins in Iowa and New Mexico, both Bush 2004 states, all he has to do is win Colorado or Virginia plus all the Kerry states. At that point, McCain will have to sweep all of the remaining Bush states and snatch away Pennsylvania -- where the polls right now have him way behind.

A new Suffolk poll of Florida, which shows Barack Obama ahead 49%-44%, has another statistic that could affect the outcome on Election Day: Among early voters, Obama is ahead by a 60%-40% margin.

Early voting has become a big thing in Florida, and current statistics show that enough early votes have already been cast to equal more than a quarter of the total votes that were cast in 2004. So Obama has already banked a good lead in a major swing state, if this poll is accurate.

Bear in mind, it's still possible to win the early votes but lose overall -- mainly because enthusiastic Obama supporters show up to vote early, but they would have otherwise voted on Election Day if the option hadn't been available. For example, Obama won the early votes in the Texas primary in March, but Hillary Clinton won on Primary Day itself by a wide enough margin to overcome the deficit.

A new round of Zogby polls shows Barack Obama ahead in six states that George W. Bush won twice, with McCain only leading in two out of the eight polled:

• Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.

• Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.

• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

• North Carolina: Obama 50%, McCain 46%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (Obama 47.2%, McCain 46.9%).

• Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 44%.

• West Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.

The six states where Obama is ahead in this set have a combined total of 91 electoral votes. The polls all have a margin of error of ±4.1%.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the vast majority of their remaining time in red states, a sign that they know they are playing on defense.

RNC Ad Hits Obama's Inexperience, Warns That Things Could Get Worse
The new RNC ad, which will run in targeted states, continues an odd theme we've noticed in their advertising. The announcer admits things are bad, but warns that it could get even worse under Barack Obama:

"Some now say this storm cannot get worse -- our nation is so off course that Barack Obama's quick rise to power and inexperience should not matter," the announcer says. "But what if the storm does get worse, with someone who's untested at the helm?"

Obama Out West; Biden In Virginia
Barack Obama is back on the campaign trail today, with a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Reno, Nevada, a 3 p.m. ET rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, and a 9 p.m. ET rally in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Joe Biden is campaigning in Virginia, with an 11 a.m. ET rally in Suffolk.

McCain In New Mexico; Palin In Iowa And Indiana
John McCain is campaigning today in New Mexico, with a 12 p.m. ET rally in Albuquerque and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Mesilla. Sarah Palin has a 12 p.m. ET rally in Sioux City, Iowa, a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Des Moines, Iowa, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Lieberman: I've Been Respectful To Obama!
In a sign that he's looking to patch things up with the Dems after this election is over, Joe Lieberman told a group of Connecticut reporters that he's always been respectful of Barack Obama: "When I go out, I say, 'I have a lot of respect for Sen. Obama. He's bright. He's eloquent.'" This seems rather odd in light of the documented occasions where Lieberman has done precisely the opposite, like when he said Obama doesn't put his country first.

Lieberman: "Thank God" Palin Won't Have To Be President On Day One
During the same conference call with Connecticut reporters, Lieberman also offered this strong defense of Sarah Palin: "Thank God she's not going to have to be president from day one. McCain's going to be alive and well."

NYT: Florida Emblematic Of McCain's Troubles
The New York Times reports this morning on the problems that John McCain has had in Florida, a state that he once took for granted but where he has now fallen behind Barack Obama in most polls. "Mr. McCain is in this spot today in part because of the conclusion by his campaign this summer that Florida, if competitive, was not as tough as it once was, and that there were more pressing states," the Times says. Oops.

Poll: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Ohio
The new University of Cincinnati poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-46% lead in Ohio, with a ±3.3% margin of error. Their previous poll from two weeks ago gave McCain a 48%-46% lead.

A new set of polls from Strategic Vision (R) has some good news for John McCain, with him taking back leads in Florida and Ohio, and holding on to his lead Georgia. But all his work in Pennsylvania has only managed to make a small dent in Obama's lead:

• Florida: McCain 48%, Obama 46%, within the ±3% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama had a 52%-44% lead.

• Georgia: McCain 51%, Obama 45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Two weeks ago, McCain was up 50%-43%.

• Ohio: McCain 48%, Obama 45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama had a 48%-46% edge.

• Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, outside of the ±3% margin of error. This is better for McCain than the 54%-40% Obama lead from two weeks ago, but he still hasn't managed t drag Obama to below 50%.

The most recent polls in Florida and Ohio have been a mixed bag, though on balance they've favored Obama. McCain has a small lead in most new Georgia polls, though an Insideradvantage poll from this morning put Obama up by one point. And every poll out there has been giving Obama a significant lead in Pennsylvania.

Still more stunning numbers, from today's Quinnipiac poll of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:

By smaller margins of two to six points, voters say they trust McCain more than Obama to handle foreign policy...

Senator Obama...is winning among all age groups in all three states. He wins women by more than 20 points in Ohio and Pennsylvania and is competitive among men in all three states. Whether voters went to college or not, they are voting for him.

"Perhaps the most remarkable development is that Obama is doing significantly better among white, born again evangelicals in Ohio and Pennsylvania than did Democratic nominee John Kerry four years ago. He also is winning Roman Catholics in those states, historically the key swing voter group in the electorate and synonymous here with the blue-collar vote.

McCain is now preferred on foreign policy by only two to six points -- way too close for comfort on his signature issue. Now, it's true that the foreign policy numbers shift depending on how the question is asked. For instance, if you phrase the question around who is better prepared to handle terrorism or international crises, you might get different numbers.

Still, the fact that McCain's foreign policy advantage is nearly non-existent in the three biggest battlegrounds -- despite McCain's attacks on Obama as basically unable or perhaps unwilling to prevent terrorists from blowing you up -- is pretty startling, and may help explain why he's doing so well with blue-collar whites in those states, too.

Polls: Obama Ahead In Florida, Ohio And Pennsylvania
A new round of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in the three largest swing states. Obama is ahead 49%-44% in Florida, 52%-38% in Ohio, and 53%-40% in Pennsylvania. The Ohio result seems like an outlier compared to other recent polls showing a tight race, but the others are not unreasonable.

Obama In Indiana, Then Off To Hawaii; Biden In North Carolina
Barack Obama is holding a rally at 11 a.m. ET this morning in Indianapolis, before leaving the campaign trail to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Joe Biden is campaigning in North Carolina, with a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Charlotte, a 2:15 p.m. ET rally in Winston-Salem, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Raleigh.

McCain In Florida; Palin In Ohio And Pennsylvania
John McCain is kicking off his officially-themed "Joe The Plumber" rallies, with a 9 a.m. ET rally in Osmond Beach, Florida, and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Sarasota, Florida. Sarah Palin is holding a 1 p.m. ET rally in Troy, Ohio, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Beaver, Pennsylvania.

Mellencamp In New Radio Ad: Obama Is The One For Small-Town Voters
The Obama campaign has a radio ad in Indiana featuring the state's favorite son John Mellencamp, whose famous "I was born in a small town" lyrics puts him in a good position to subtly rebut any objections to Obama's own "small town" gaffe from April:

Click To Play

"But now I'm seeing small towns across America dying," Mellencamp says. "Folks losing their jobs and their homes. Eight years of George Bush have really hurt. And John McCain is just more of the same."

Another Poll Shows Narrow Obama Lead In North Carolina
A new poll from North Carolina-based Marshall Marketing gives Barack Obama a 48%-46% in this newly-minted swing state, within the ±4.5% margin of error. In their previous poll from two weeks ago, McCain had a 48%-46% edge.

Obama At Rally: "This Looks Like The Real Virginia To Me"
At a rally yesterday in Leesburg, Virginia, Barack Obama rebutted the "Real Virginia" comments of McCain surrogate Nancy Pfotenhauer. "I know some folks may not think so, but this looks like the real Virginia to me," Obama said. "This looks like authentic Virginia and y'all look like a bunch of Virginians."

Schwarzenegger: Palin Will Be Ready By Inauguration Day
In an interview aired yesterday evening on CNN, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger did his best to defend Sarah Palin's qualifications. When asked whether Palin is ready and qualified, the Terminator answered: "By the time that she is sworn in I think she will be ready."

A new round of Rasmussen polls tonight shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting some of the key swing states this election -- and on the whole, that's good news for Obama:

• Colorado: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a nearly-identical 52%-45% Obama lead from a few days ago.

• Florida: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to the 51%-46% Obama lead from a week ago.

• Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-46% Obama lead from last week.

• North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 48%, with ±3% margin of error, compared to a 48%-48% tied race from a week ago.

• Ohio: McCain 49%, Obama 47%, with a ±4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-49% tied race from last week.

All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004. And at the rate things are going for John McCain -- with it looking less and less likely that he'll be able to pick up a Kerry state -- he'll essentially need to sweep all of them.

The intense focus on micro-targeting is one of the key stories of Campaign 2008, and Ben Smith posts Obama's latest radio ad in Florida, which hits McCain on space exploration.

Space is a global issue, or perhaps even more, but also a local issue, too.

"Here in central Florida, America's space program is a way of life," Florida Senator Bill Nelson says in the spot. "So compare the two presidential candidates. Barack Obama wants a $2 billion increase for NASA, which would lessen the job losses at the Cape."

Nelson adds that McCain "wants to freeze NASA spending at last year's level. So layoffs would loom larger and NASA would continue to be starved of funds for future exploration."

It's another sign of Obama's leg up in the ad wars: His campaign's huge bankroll has allowed him to outdo McCain handily when it comes to flooding every corner of the key states with all manner of relentlessly targeted advertising.

New McCain Ad: Obama Worked With A Terrorist
The McCain campaign has a new TV ad hammering Barack Obama for his past associations with Bill Ayers. Check it out:

"When convenient, he worked with terrorist Bill Ayers. When discovered, he lied," the announcer says. Much like the Web ad from yesterday, the syntax here appears to suggest that the two of them worked together on terrorism, rather than an education foundation that Obama chaired and Ayers served on.

Obama In Ohio, Biden In Missouri
Barack Obama is in Ohio today, with a 9:40 a.m. ET rally in Chillicothe, and an early afternoon rally in Columbus. Joe Biden is in Missouri, with an 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Springfield.

McCain In Wisconsin And Minnesota, Palin In Ohio And Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning today in Wisconsin and Minnesota, two Dem-leaning swing states where he's fallen way behind in the recent polls. McCain has an 11 a.m. ET rally in La Crosse, Wisconsin, and a 5 p.m. ET rally in Lakeville, Minnesota. Sarah Palin is touring through Ohio and Pennsylvania, which are both slipping away from the GOP ticket, with events in Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

Hillary Campaigning For Dem Ticket Today In Arkansas
Hillary Clinton is holding a rally today on behalf of Barack Obama in Little Rock, Arkansas, scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Obama: I Assumed Ayers Was Rehabilitated
In an interview with Michael Smerconish, Barack Obama said that he had begun working Bill Ayers on the Annenberg education project under innocent circumstances. "Ultimately, I ended up learning about the fact that he had engaged in this reprehensible act 40 years ago," Obama said, "but I was eight years old at the time and I assumed that he had been rehabilitated."

GOP Pollster: Obama Up In Florida And Ohio
A new pair of polls from Strategic Vision (R) gives Barack Obama the lead in both Florida and Ohio. In Florida: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±3% margin of error. In Ohio: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, within the ±3% margin of error.

More Polls Put Obama Up In North Carolina
Two new polls are showing Obama ahead in North Carolina, which hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976. From North Carolina-based Civitas (R): Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±4.2% margin of error. From Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 48%, with a ±4% margin of error.

CREW Wants Probe Of McCain's Gambling Winnings
The Committee for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington is calling upon the Senate Ethics Committee to investigate John McCain's habit of gambling, and whether he has failed to reports winnings on his financial disclosure forms. "Given Sen. McCain's history of gambling on a regular basis over many years, it is nearly impossible to imagine that he never won over $200, the amount that triggers the reporting requirement," said CREW executive director Melanie Sloan.

More polls today show Barack Obama leading in some key red states:

• In Ohio, Public Policy Polling (D) gives Obama a 49%-43% lead over John McCain, with a ±2.8% margin of error. Three weeks ago, PPP had McCain ahead 48%-44%. Take this as further evidence to suggest that the economic crisis is knocking John McCain down in a lot of places.

• In Florida, Mason-Dixon gives Obama a narrow lead of 48%-46%, within the ±4% margin of error, not significantly changed from a 47%-45% Obama lead two-and-a-half weeks ago.

• In Nevada, Research 2000 has Obama ahead 50%-43%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama had slim edge of 44%-43%.

All totaled, these three states have 52 electoral votes, and they all voted for George W. Bush in 2004.

A new set of polls from Rasmussen shows Barack Obama further dominating in key swing states -- though McCain retains an edge in Ohio for this particular firm:

• Colorado: Obama ahead 51%-45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, Obama had a narrower 49%-48% edge.

• Florida: Obama up 52%-45%, outside the ±3% margin of error. Last week, the two candidates were tied at 47% each.

• Missouri: Obama up 50%-47%, within the ±3% margin of error. Three weeks ago, McCain was ahead 51%-46%.

• Ohio: McCain with a 48%-47% edge, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, McCain was up 47%-46%, pretty much the same as now.

• Virginia: Obama up 50%-48%, within the ±3% margin of error, not all that different from Obama's 50%-47% lead a week ago.

All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004, and all totaled they have 80 electoral votes. If John McCain were to lose even one from the Republican column, winning would become extremely difficult.