Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Bachmann Doubles Down On Obama = Anti-America
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) has dug in further on her position that Barack Obama is against America. Bachmann appeared today on the Hugh Hewitt radio show, and had this to say: "And so, he [Chris Matthews] was using the word "Anti-American" and I told Chris, what I question are Barack Obama's views. Because Barack Obama's views are against America." And here's what she said on the Mike Gallagher show: "What are Barack Obama's policies? Are they for America, or will they be against traditional American ideals and values?"

House GOP List Sees Double-Digit Losses
U.S. News has obtained the NRCC's internal "Death List" of seats they consider to be probably lost to the Democrats. Ten seats are listed as "likely gone," another nine are tagged as "leaning Democratic," and another 22 are "pure toss-up." It's unknown whether this list was drafted before or after the party cut off support for Michele Bachmann.

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Oh boy. The Idaho Statesman has investigated additional allegations of illicit gay sex involving Senator Larry Craig (R-ID) — including one from former Denver prostitute Mike Jones, already famous for outing Ted Haggard — and there might just be something to these additional accusations:

As with the Statesman's August report, the new evidence is not definitive. There are no videos, no love letters, no voice messages. Like last August, they are he-said, he-said allegations about a man seeking discreet sex from partners whom he counted on to never tell.

But the Statesman's investigation, which included reviews of travel and property records and background checks on all five men, found nothing to disprove the five new accounts. The men offer telling and sometimes similar details about what happened, or the senator's travel records place him in the city where sex is alleged to have occurred, or his accusers told credible witnesses at the time of the incident.

Larry Craig is now taking yet another path in his quest to legally absolve himself: He is legally arguing that the law under which he was arrested and subsequently pled guilty to disorderly conduct in a men's room is in fact unconstitutional.

This puts Craig with an odd ally for a conservative Republican: The ACLU, who argued in an amicus brief that foot-tapping and hand gestures alone, absent a real sexual act, were protected by the First Amendment.

Craig's lawyers will file their briefs by mid-December, and have asked to make oral arguments before the appeals court in St. Paul.

Larry Craig isn't giving up.

Craig's attorneys filed a notice today in Minnesota that they are appealing the decision by Hennepin County Judge Charles Porter to deny Craig's withdrawal of his guilty plea for disorderly conduct in a public men's room.

The short, four-page filing did not contain any argument for the appeal, but that should be forthcoming later.

"I was very proud of my association with Mitt Romney. And he not only threw me under his campaign bus, he backed up and ran over me again."

-- Larry Craig, complaining about Romney's criticism of his wide stance during an interview with NBC's Matt Lauer that's set to air tomorrow.

Even though Larry Craig is sticking around the Senate, Republicans are already preparing for his (much-awaited) departure in 2008, when he will retire. Lt. Governor Jim Risch, who had been expected to be appointed to the seat if Craig had resigned as he originally announced, has now announced his candidacy for the seat.

Risch already has some big names from the state GOP establishment on board, with Senator Mike Crapo and former Governor Phil Batt co-chairing his campaign. So it looks likely that he'll be the Republican nominee against former Democratic Congressman Larry LaRocco, whom he already defeated by a wide margin in the Lt. Governor race last year.

It can't be true -- and yet it is. Larry Craig just issued a statement saying that despite a judge's decision today to deny his request to withdraw his guilty plea, he's nonetheless going to stay in the Senate:

"I am extremely disappointed with the ruling issued today. I am innocent of the charges against me. I continue to work with my legal team to explore my additional legal options.

"I will continue to serve Idaho in the United States Senate, and there are several reasons for that. As I continued to work for Idaho over the past three weeks here in the Senate, I have seen that it is possible for me to work here effectively.

"Over the course of my three terms in the Senate and five terms in the House, I have accumulated seniority and important committee assignments that are valuable to Idaho, not the least of which are my seats on the Appropriations Committee, the Energy and Natural Resources Committee and the Veterans' Affairs Committee. A replacement would be highly unlikely to obtain these posts.

"In addition, I will continue my effort to clear my name in the Senate Ethics Committee -- something that is not possible if I am not serving in the Senate.

"When my term has expired, I will retire and not seek reelection. I hope this provides the certainty Idaho needs and deserves."

So, his reasons for staying are (1) he says he realizes he can still be effective; (2) he would be letting down Idaho to deny them his continued service and experience; and (3) he can't clear his name unless he stays.

Political impact: Because he says he's not running for reelection, the seat is likely to stay in GOP hands due to the tilt of the state. But Craig's decision to stay will infuriate GOP leaders who have been pressuring him to go, because it will keep the story front and center in the news. Indeed, according to CNN, GOP leaders abruptly canceled a press conference they had scheduled for today.

Craig's decision today goes counter to not one, but two previous promises: First, his announced intention to resign by Sept. 30; and second, his office's assertion that if his request to withdraw the plea were denied, he'd step down.

More soon.

Okay, we've got a copy for you here of the judge's decision in the Larry Craig case, in which he denied Craig's request to deny his guilty plea. You can read it right here in our TPM Document Collection.

Suffice it to say that the 27-page decision is a rather long and rigorous decision for a misdemeanor case -- a reflection of both Craig's tenacious battling and of the tortured nature of Craig's legal arguments. The gist of the decision is, well, that Craig knew what he was doing and admitted as much, and that the evidence supported that version of events.

Here's a sample of the judge's wisdom to whet your, er, appetite: "A person has a reasonable expectation of privacy in a public restroom stall."

More fun quotes from the decision after the jump.

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The judge overseeing the Larry Craig case has denied the Idaho Senator's request to withdraw his guilty plea amid the wide-stance men's room scandal, CNN is reporting.

This is a big deal, because it would seem to render it difficult indeed for Craig to hang on to his Senate seat and keep fighting to clear his name. Craig could appeal, but GOP leaders have already publicly and privately been pressuring him to resign his Senate seat. Craig's office had said that he wanted to await the judge's decision. Now that he has it, it's hard to imagine that he would try to hang onto the seat for the duration of his appeal.

On the other hand, it was hard to imagine that things would get this far to begin with.

The next step will be for Craig to announce his intentions, and reporters are awaiting a statement either from Craig's lawyer or for the man himself. More soon.

Here's an interesting tidbit from yesterday's Larry Craig hearing that has gone largely unnoticed. At one point, Craig's lawyer, Billy Martin, denied that his client had done anything improper in that men's room, and then went on to offer his view of what needs to occur in situations like that for it to constitute a sexual overture:

"You should have either touching, or words, or a combination of the two."

In other words, because there was no exchange of touch or words, no sexual advance occurred. So argued Larry Craig's lawyer, anyway.

Remember a few weeks back when Larry Craig's office said he would resign his Senate seat by September 30 if his guilty plea weren't overturned by then?

Well, forget all that -- Craig is staying.

In the wake of the news today that the judge on the case won't be ruling on whether his guilty plea can be withdrawn until late next week at the latest -- that is to say, well after September 30 -- Craig has just confirmed that he's staying put:

"Today was a major step in the legal effort to clear my name," Craig said in a statement. "The court has not issued a ruling on my motion to withdraw my guilty plea. For now, I will continue my work in the U.S. Senate for Idaho."

CNN is now reporting that a ruling on Larry Craig's request to withdraw his wide stance guilty plea isn't due until the "end of next week, at the earliest."

This is a big deal, because Craig's office has indicated that he would officially resign on Sept. 30 if his guilty plea weren't overturned by then. We now know, of course, that the ruling will come later than that.

So what will Craig do come the 30th? Despite the earlier indication of his self-imposed September 30 deadline, he refused to say late yesterday what he would end up doing. So we'll all just have to wait and see. Craig is expected to clarify his plans later today.

So will Larry Craig resign on September 30, as promised, if his guilty isn't overturned by then? He's now refusing to say:

Idaho Republican Sen. Larry Craig declined to say Tuesday whether he would resign his seat as planned if his guilty plea stemming from a Minneapolis bathroom sex sting is not overturned this week.

“We are waiting for the legal determinations and I have nothing more to say,” Craig told reporters Tuesday.

The senator would not comment on what he would do if the court case were not decided by Sunday, the original date of his planned resignation from the Senate.

Which is odd, because his own spokesperson explicitly said that if his plea weren't overturned by September 30, he would in fact step down.

The prosecutor in the Larry Craig case has just submitted a filing in response to Craig's request to withdraw his guilty plea -- and in it, the lawyer shares lots of juicy details about his private conversations with Craig as he sought to decide whether to plead guilty or to fight the charges against him.

You can read the response of the prosecutor, Christopher Renz, right here in our TPM Document Collection. In it, the prosecutor details his discussions with the embattled Senator. Among the relevations:

-- In response to Craig's questions as to what would happen if he pled guilty, the prosecutor explained that his guilty plea would be a matter of public record.

-- The prosecutor noted drolly that Craig told him that "he was in a difficult situation as a result of the nature of the charges and his position as a United States Senator."

-- The prosecutor noted that in all conversations, Craig "seemed calm, intellegent and methodical in his questions. At no time during the conversations, did the Defendant appear to have a tone or sense of urgency, panic, or overt emotion."

Perhaps best of all, Craig wrote a handwritten note to the prosecutor profusely thanking him for his help. The note was submitted in court by the prosecutor; you can read it right here.

Late Update: I should have made it clearer in this initial post that all these details were offered by the prosecutor in order to build the case that Craig knew what he was doing and understood the legal consequences when he initially pleaded guilty.

Breaking: A development in the Larry Craig case!

A prosecutor on the case has now filed papers in response to Craig's request to withdraw his guilty plea in the "wide stance" scandal. The prosecutor, Christopher Renz, makes a rather straightforward point: Craig didn't move to withdraw this plea until, you know, it became public:

Craig clearly "had hoped that he could plead guilty and that the plea would not be discovered by the media or public," Renz wrote. "The defendant chose to plead guilty and consciously took that risk. The defendant's current pursuit of withdrawal of his guilty plea is reactionary, calculated and political."

Not sure how one can argue with this.

He's back!

The Idaho Senator, who is apparently still trying to retract his "wide stance" guilty plea, gets spotted in the Senate. Apparently a reporter saw him slipping into a Senate bathroom stall.

...okay, not really. He was seen slipping into a Senator's private dining room.

Wide Stance Larry just isn't giving up. He's now privately reaching out and apologizing to his fellow GOPers for the "distraction" he caused with his men's room cruising. And he's hit on a novel way to win them back -- mail them a copy of his paperwork seeking to withdraw his guilty plea. Roll Call picks up the story (sub. only):

Craig sent a copy of his appeal to his fellow GOP Senators, along with a personally signed letter of regret and an offer to provide further information as his case moves ahead.

The embattled Senator, who has said he intends to resign on Sept. 30 unless he is able to have his guilty plea thrown out, wrote to Senators: “I regret the distraction this situation has caused at a time when the attention of the Senate, and the nation, should be on the war and other serious policy issues.

“Nevertheless, should you be interested in the facts of my case and the efforts I am making, I encourage you to review the enclosed,” Craig continued in the brief memo. “If you would like any additional information, please don’t hesitate to contact me personally, or my office.”

But it isn't working, according to GOPers who spoke to the paper. “The story is done," one Senate GOP aide said. "The door is closed. This is not about people not liking or liking him. This was business.”

A few days after moving to withdraw his wide-stance guilty plea in court, Senator Larry Craig (R-ID) pops up momentarily to throw flowers at Scholar-Warrior Petraeus before promptly disappearing again.

Late Update: Just to be clear, Craig didn't really appear anywhere, he just issued a public statement praising Petraeus and the surge. No mention of his legal travails in the statement, needless to say.

Larry Craig's full legal request to withdraw his guilty plea has now been submitted in court. Here's the key quote saying the media made him do it:

Shortly after Senator Craig's meeting with the Idaho Statesman, in June 2007, Senator Craig was arrested and charged with interference with privacy and disorderly conduct, based on an arrest stemming from an undercover operation targeting gay men in a public men's restroom at the Minneapolis International Airport. Despite Senator Craig's denial of any inappropriate behavior, he was panicked that such allegations would be made public and that they would provide the Idaho Statesman with an excuse to publish its baseless article.

While in this state of intense anxiety, Senator Craig felt compelled to grasp the lifeline offered to him by the police officer; namely that if he were to submit to an interview and plead guilty, then none of the officer's allegations would be made public. Thus, rather than seek legal advice from an attorney to assist him in publicly fighting these charges and potentially protract the issue, Senator Craig's panic drove him to accept a guilty plea, the terms of which offered him what he thought was a private, expeditious resolution of this matter.

Senator Craig maintains his innocence with respect to these charges, and it would be manifestly unjust not to allow his guilty plea, entered in a state of fear, to be withdrawn.

You can read the whole thing in our TPM Document Collection. Enjoy!

GOP Senator Larry Craig has now officially submitted papers in court to withdraw his guilty plea. His argument: The media made me plead guilty.

A SurveyUSA poll released yesterday shows Republicans in good shape to keep the Senate seat of disgraced GOP Senator Larry Craig, who is expected to resign at the end of the month. Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R), reportedly the most likely replacement appointee for the seat, leads former Democratic Congressman Larry LaRocco by a margin of 52%-36%. Former Governor Dirk Kempthorne, who served as a U.S. Senator in the 1990's and is currently U.S. Secretary of the Interior, leads LaRocco 55%-36%.

Congressman Mike Simpson, who has indicated that he does not want to serve in the Senate — and has had sharp words for the Senate GOP leadership that abandoned Craig — also leads LaRocco, by a 54%-34% margin.

New Survey USA poll on what Idahoans think Larry Craig's next move should be:

What should Craig do?

52% Leave Senate
29% Serve Out Term, Don't Run
17% Serve Out Term And Run Again
2% Not Sure

Meanwhile, 54% say he should leave his guilty plea in place.

Could things get worse for Craig? Well, yes, actually. When asked to rate the respect they have for Craig on a scale of one to 10, the largest percentage, 30%, choose one. Yikes.

Representative Mike Simpson (R-ID) lashed out at Senate Republican leaders for their treatment of his Idaho colleague, Senator Larry Craig (R).

"I hope I never stub my toe and they throw me under the bus," Simpson said in The Hill. "It kind of makes you wonder what party you want to be a member of."

Simpson also pointed out that there have been other scandals in the Senate GOP conference, and those members have not been forced to resign. "They have people over there in far worse trouble that they haven't said a thing about," he said, referring to Senators such as Ted Stevens of Alaska and David Vitter of Louisiana.

Simpson also said he does not want the appointment to Craig's Senate seat, and does not even wish to serve in the Senate.