ME-SEN

A Day At The Congressional Races

Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: GOP candidates are on the defensive on the economic crisis in a big way -- and in their fumbling efforts to respond are digging themselves in deeper and deeper.

Coleman Keeps Saying Government Could Net Huge Profit On Bailout
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is defending his bizarre statement on Monday that the proposed $700 billion bailout for Wall St. could make the government a profit of 10 or 20 times the principal. "If you buy assets at close to fire-sale prices and the market stabilizes, you'll see an improvement in assets," Coleman said -- forgetting that this bailout is structured in such a way as to specifically avoid buying assets at fire-sale prices, and the securities being bought would be unlikely to return to their hypothetical maturity valuations.

GOP Candidate's Staffer Uses Fake Name At Dem Candidate's Press Conference
The press secretary for House candidate Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has been caught calling into a press conference by Democrat Gary Trauner, using a fake name and identifying herself as a Trauner supporter so as to better asked a pointed question about the Dems' energy policies. This seat has been in GOP hands since the 1978 election, but Trauner's near-win back in 2006 makes this a very competitive race for the open race this time around.

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GOP Sen. Susan Collins: Edwards Is The Father

One has to wonder whether it's appropriate for a sitting U.S. Senator to gossip about these topics on a live radio show. While appearing on local radio in Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins said she believes John Edwards is the father of Rielle Hunter's baby:

The discussion of the Edwards scandal begins at the two-minute mark, with Collins saying at around 3:30, "But also, don't you think he is the father of the child?"

(Via Collins Watch.)


Two More GOP Senators Dump Money From Stevens

Here are two more Republicans getting rid of money from Ted Stevens: Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon, who is in a close re-election battle in his Democratic-leaning state, and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is running ahead in the polls for her own re-election bid.

"Money donated by Ted Stevens to Gordon Smith's reelection campaign will be donated to charity," said Smith campaign spokesperson Lindsay Gilbride, in an e-mail to Election Central.

Collins is also dumping the money, with the campaign's communications director telling Maine Politics that Collins will donate the money to charity.

GOP Senators Facing Tough Races Are Skipping Republican Convention

Yet more evidence of just how abysmal the GOP brand is these days?

Nine of 12 targeted Republicans running in the most competitive Senate races this fall are either skipping the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., or have not decided whether to attend.

Among those who will not attend are Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, who is not close to presumptive presidential nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona, and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is a McCain loyalist. Stevens and Collins will use the convention week to focus on their campaigns.

Also sending regrets is former Rep. Bob Schaffer of Colorado, running for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard.

Six others -- Sens. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, John Sununu of New Hampshire, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Gordon Smith of Oregon and challengers John Kennedy of Louisiana and Rep. Steve Pearce of New Mexico are still on the fence. Their spokesman offered responses ranging from "there are no plans yet" to "no decisions have been made."

By contrast, most of the Dems in those races will be going to the Dem convention. Pretty telling stuff.

Dems Plowing Huge Money Into Tough Maine Senate Race

The DSCC is making a huge investment of over $5 million in the Maine Senate race, Advertising Age reports -- a sign that Senate Dems will use their massive financial advantage over the GOP to expand the map into some very tough races.

The infusion by the the Dems in this race shows that Chuck Schumer and company are throwing their weight around in a big way, as polling has consistently shown incumbent Republican Susan Collins ahead of Dem Congressman Tom Allen by a sizable margin. But $5 million thrown into this small New England state could very well change those numbers around.

It would also force the lesser-funded NRSC to respond, taking attention away from other seats where they're playing defense.

Election Central Morning Roundup

New McCain Ad Makes Appeal To Hispanic Voters
John McCain has a new ad set to air in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, in which the candidate makes a direct appeal for Hispanic voters who have largely been alienated by the Republican Party's anti-immigrant wing. Note that the ad uses footage of McCain at a June 2007 debate, with McCain's defense of immigrants' patriotism in front of none other than Tom Tancredo:

Obama Talking About Energy Today In Ohio
Barack Obama is visiting Dayton, Ohio, where he will be holding a "Secure Energy Future Town Hall." Ohio has proven to be a pivotal swing state delivering Republican victories in recent elections, but Obama has taken a narrow lead in the most recent polls -- and you can bet he'll be working very hard in the coming months to sustain that.

McCain Visiting Wisconsin, Where Obama Is Polling Ahead
John McCain is making a visit today to Wisconsin, an attempt to win over a state that has narrowly voted Democratic in the past two elections. Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll gives Barack Obama a 50%-39% lead here, up from a 45%-43% lead a month ago.

Report: Obama Team Vetting Dodd For VP -- And Not Vetting Hillary
Former Hillary Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said on Fox News last night that the Obama campaign is not vetting Hillary for vice president, to the best of his knowledge. Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports that Chris Dodd is being vetted.

McCain Hits Obama For Missing Vote That He Missed, Too
Good work on CNN's part for spotting this: John McCain has been criticizing Barack Obama's national security credentials for missing the September 2007 vote on the Kyl-Lieberman amendment. But McCain, who has missed the vast majority of Senate votes since he began running for president, also skipped out on that vote.

Dem Chances Go Up In Red Florida Seat
Rep. Tom Feeney, a former Florida House Speaker who worked to pass legislation in 2000 to award the state's electoral votes to George W. Bush just in case the recounts didn't work out, might be in danger of a seriously-funded challenge from Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. The Rothenberg and Cook Reports, plus CQ, have all changed their ratings on this race to "Leans Republican," up from safer ratings for the GOP.

Poll: GOP Sen. Susan Collins Way Ahead Of Dem Opponent
A new poll from Maine by local pollster Pan Atlantic SMS shows two-term Republican Senator Susan Collins having a huge lead over Democratic Congressman Tom Allen: Collins 56%, Allen 31%. Barack Obama is heavily favored to win Maine's electoral votes, but Collins appears to be safe and getting more than her fair share of ticket-splitters.

Left-Wing Independent Withstands Dem Ballot Challenge In Maine Senate Race

Democrats got a bit of bad news yesterday in the Maine Senate race, when the secretary of state overruled the Maine Democratic Party's bid to challenge left-wing independent candidate Herbert Hoffman's ballot petitions.

Hoffman, whose anti-war platform could potentially win votes that would have otherwise gone to Democrat Tom Allen, was found to have 38 valid signatures more than were necessary to get on the ballot.

Incumbent Republican Susan Collins has led Allen in all the polls, but the most recent survey from Rasmussen found it to be turning into a single-digit race.

Maine Senate Race Already The State's Most Expensive Ever

Here's another sign that the emergence of the Internet has raised fundraising expectations enormously for Congressional races all across the country.

The latest fundraising figures from Maine show that the two candidates have already made this the most expensive Senate race in state history -- and there are more than six months left to go.

Incumbent Susan Collins (R) raised over $960,00 in the first quarter of 2008, with $5.52 million raised overall and $4.51 million in cash-on-hand. Congressman Tom Allen (D) took in $700,000 for the first quarter, with $3.7 million raised in total and $2.7 million cash-on-hand.

As much as Allen has raised, it might not be enough to topple the incumbent, however: Collins holds a double-digit lead in all polls taken so far.

Rasmussen: Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) Ahead Of Dem Opponent

A new Rasmussen poll of Maine has some rare good news for Senate Republicans, showing Sen. Susan Collins (R) well ahead of Democratic Congressman Tom Allen. The numbers: Collins 54%, Allen 38%.

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have led John McCain in polling here, but Collins is apparently able to garner a lot of ticket-splitters — she wins 55% support among self-identified moderate voters, and even gets 32% of liberals.

Polls: GOP In Bad Shape For 2008 Senate Races

A new round of Senate polls from SurveyUSA, commissioned by Roll Call, show the Republicans in serious trouble for the 2008 Senate races.

In Oregon, Republican incumbent Gordon Smith is ahead but under 50% against two Democrats, leading state House Speaker Jeff Merkley 48%-39%, and leading Democratic activist Steve Novick 45%-39%.

In Minnesota, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman is statistically tied with both his Democratic opponents, with a one-point 46%-45% lead against Al Franken, and a 44%-44% tie against attorney and 2000 Senate candidate Mike Ciresi.

For the open seat in New Mexico, Republican Representatives Steve Pearce and Heath Wilson both trail Democratic Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, with Chávez at 48%-43% against Pearce and 48%-44% against Wilson. This is a turnaround from earlier polls that showed Chávez to be a weak Democratic nominee. Dem Congressman Tom Udall, who is also looking at the race, was not polled.

In the open-seat race in Virginia, former Democratic Governor Mark Warner leads former GOP Governor Jim Gilmore 57%-35%, and leads former Senator George Allen — who has not indicated that he would run — by a 52%-42% margin.

In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican John Sununu trails his 2002 opponent Jeanne Shaheen by a 53%-42% margin.

The Republicans' only bright spot is Maine, where Senator Susan Collins leads Dem Congressman Tom Allen 55%-38%.

Late Update: In another poll result I missed before, Democrats are also ahead in the open-seat race in Colorado, with Dem Congressman Mark Udall leading former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer 48%-41%.

Maine Newspaper Responds to Conflict-of-Interest Accusations — Two Editors Recuse Themselves

In the wake of questions from the blogosphere about the paper's political neutrality, two members of the Bangor Daily News editorial staff have agreed to recuse themselves from all coverage of the Maine Senate race.

On the right, executive editor Mark Woodward served as press secretary to Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) for ten months in 1996 and 1997. His wife, Bridget Woodward, is a local caseworker in the Senator's Bangor district office, though she is retiring at the end of the month. The paper first came under fire for this connection over an editorial hitting the campaign of Congressman Tom Allen, the Democratic Senate candidate, for sending a tracker to videotape Collins out on the campaign trail.

On the left, the paper's news editor in charge of political coverage is Tim Allen, a first cousin of Tom Allen.

Both Woodward and Allen have said in an editorial announcement that it is in the paper's best interests to remove any appearance of a conflict of interest, and thus Senate race coverage will be handled by other editors at the paper who do not have any personal or professional connections to the candidates.

Collins' Office Responds To Conflict-of-Interest Charges

Yesterday we told you about an alleged conflict of interest at a major newspaper in Maine, the Bangor Daily News. The executive editor is one Mark Woodward, who not only used to serve as a press secretary for Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), but his wife Bridget is currently a staffer at Collins' Bangor district office.

Thus, it seemed suspicious to us that the paper had been editorializing against the campaign of Collins' Democratic opponent, Congressman Tom Allen, for sending a tracker to videotape Collins' public appearances. After several days of attempting to contact Mark and Bridget Woodward and hear their side of the story, we ran a post.

Now Senator Collins' office has responded.

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ME-SEN: Collins Office, Maine Paper Silent On Conflict-of-Interest Allegations

The liberal blogs have been abuzz with accusations against a major Maine newspaper, the Bangor Daily News, charging it with a conflict of interest in its coverage and editorial opinions on the Maine Senate race, which is shaping up as one of the highest-profile races in the nation, with intense interest from the Netroots.

The allegations seem to have a great deal of merit, as it turns out. They turn on the fact that the paper's executive editor, Mark Woodward, is married to Bridget Woodward, a staffer for Collins in the Senator's Bangor district office. In other words, if Collins were to lose the election, the wife of the executive editor of a major newspaper in Collins' home state would be out of a job — which would cause some serious inconvenience for that household.

So what does the paper's executive editor and the Collins staffer have to say about this arrangement? Absolutely nothing. We've repeatedly tried to contact Mark Woodward at the Daily News office, and Bridget Woodward at the Bangor district office, hoping to hear their side of the story. Thus far, not one of our calls has been returned.

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DSCC Launches First 2007 Ads Attacking GOP Sens On Iraq

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is running new ads attacking four GOP senators for their votes on Iraq funding. The 30-second spots, targeting Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Susan Collins (R-ME), Norm Coleman (R-MN) and John Sununu (R-NH), ask constituents to call their senators to "ask them to do the right thing":




The small buy, the DSCC's first in 2007, in the four states comes just as the Senate takes a critical vote today on an amendment that would require the president to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq in 120 days. The addition of McConnell, the minority leader, is a bold move considering he represents a Republican-leaning state that went to Bush by a solid margin twice. A transcript is available at the DSCC.

GOP Senator Susan Collins Has An Official Dem Challenger

Looks like GOP Senator Susan Collins, a top target for Senate Dems in 2008, officially has a challenger. From WCSH-TV in Portland:

Congressman Tom Allen has made no secret of the fact that he has been "considering" a challenge to Senator Susan Collins. Tuesday, he made it official and filed federal election paperwork. Allen, who is from Portland, has been in the house since 1996.

Collins has served two terms in the senate, rising to national prominence as the chair of the homeland security committee.

Several democrats are already lining up to run for Allen's seat. Among those who have said they will run: Chellie Pingree, former state senator Michael Brennan and York county district attorney Mark Lawrence. Iraq war vet Adam Cote of Sanford has also said he will run.

Allen is planning a campaign tour across Maine during the Memorial Day weekend.

Allen's campaign web site is here.

It should also be pointed out that pressure of this sort on vulnerable Senate GOPers is just the thing the Dem Congress needs to peel off Republicans and turn them against the war. In other words, Allen's entry is fortuitous timing for Congressional Dems.

Lieberman Endorses GOP's Collins

GOP Senator Susan Collins is considered a key target by national Dems sizing up the 2008 elections, but at least one Democrat (of sorts) will be helping Collins play defense: Joe Lieberman. From the Associated Press:

Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman said he is endorsing Sen. Susan Collins in her 2008 re-election bid and will campaign on her behalf.

Lieberman, a former Democrat turned independent, is returning the favor to Collins, a Republican who supported and campaigned for him in his 2006 election in Connecticut...

Lieberman told the National Journal's "CongressDaily" on Thursday that he is ready to support Collins even though he doesn't know who the Democratic nominee will be. He said his political action committee has contributed $5,000 toward Collins' campaign.

ME-SEN: Dem Tom Allen Considering Run Against Collins

With Senate Democrats looking to consolidate their midterm gains in 2008, the latest Senate seat being eyed for a possible Dem pick-up is in blue territory currently held by a Republican. Roll Call reports (paid subscription) that Rep. Tom Allen, D-Maine, has said he is "seriously considering" a run for U.S. Senate against moderate GOPer Susan Collins. Allen, who voted against the war in 2002, has spent only half of the more than $930,000 he raised in the last cycle — leaving him with a warchest for a statewide run that rivals the cash on hand held by Collins.

Should Allen run, and Collins seek re-election, he will reportedly base his campaign around two central issues. First, he will take Collins to task for breaking the pledge she made in 1996 to only serve two terms. And he will argue that the liberal-leaning voters of his New England state should not be sending a Senator to Washington who would empower the Republican leadership there. It worked for Rhode Island Senator-Elect Sheldon Whitehouse.

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