The Republicans now have an open seat that they'll have to work very hard to retain: Four-term Sen. Kit Bond of Missouri has announced that he isn't running again.

Expect a tight race for this one. John McCain carried the state in a squeaker, but the Dems took over the governorship in a landslide and also hold a lot of other major offices. The Republicans have a deep bench, too, with majorities in the state legislature and in the House delegation.

At first glance, an obvious potential Democratic candidate might be Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, the daughter of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan. On the GOP side, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder would be an obvious choice as the only Republican other than John McCain to win statewide in 2008. But again, both parties could have plenty of candidates to pick from.

In the wake of Trent Lott's announcement that he's resigning from the Senate, several news accounts have reported that Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, a Republican, will immediately appoint a replacement -- and Barbour further announced today that a special election will be held to fill the seat on election day in November of 2008.

This would be a big boon to Republican efforts to hold Lott's seat. That's because it would allow whoever the appointee is the next 11 months to build up a record, raise money, and amass the advantages of incumbency in advance of the special contest.

But what does election law really hold?

National Dems who are scrutinizing the relevant statute say that they think that in fact it stipulates that the election is to be held within 90 days of the date of Lott's resignation, which he hasn't announced yet.

If true, that would effectively minimize the GOP advantage. Because of this -- and because an earlier special election might have a lower turnout -- it would give Dems a shot at winning that special contest.

And guess what -- it looks as if the Mississippi Secretary of State has confirmed that the special election is in fact supposed to happen 90 days after Lott's resignation date -- and not in 2008, as Barbour is claiming.

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Reader PW writes:

My wife just came home from voting here in Webster Groves MO. She used the electronic touch-screen voting system. . . She touched Claire McCaskill's picture and the machine recorded a vote for Jim Talent. She then called one of the people running the polling center who helped her correct the problem. My wife then had to call the person over another time after it recorded her vote a Republican again. In her frustration she asked the person who was responsible for the design of this system. The polling person leaned in very close to my wife and whispered, "We're f----d."

The Missouri Senate race is perhaps the closest in the country, and polls are being watched very closely, by both sides, for any errors or malfeasance.

There's been plenty of talk in political circles to the effect that the Republican National Committee is stepping into key Senate races because it doesn't think the NRSC is up to the job of winning them. Well, here's another sign of this: The RNC today sank $731,968.29 into negative ads and "research" (read: dirt-digging) against Dem challenger Claire McCaskill, records filed today with the Federal Election Commission show. The RNC's huge cash dump on behalf of GOP Senator Jim Talent -- who's trailing McCaskill in some recent polls -- comes as national GOP strategists appear to be halting their investment for now on the Ohio Senate race and instead are focusing on Virginia, Tennessee, and of course Missouri as key to holding the Senate.

That eye-opening number on the Missouri Senate race we promised you earlier? Here it is: A new SurveyUSA poll finds that Dem challenger Claire McCaskill is pulling away from GOP Senator Jim Talent -- she now leads Talent 51%-42%. Previous polls have shown a statistical dead heat. A key footnote in today's poll: There's been a big swing in independent support. Independents backed Talent by 12 points last month, but now support McCaskill by 13 -- a 25 point shift. As noted below, Missouri is one of the three Senate races the Republican National Committee is now sinking money into in a last-ditch effort to stave off more and more likely losses in the Senate.

Today the NRSC sank $1,326,382 into the Missouri Senate race, spending every dime of that money on negative ads, a new filing with the Federal Election Commission shows. The big cash buy comes just as a new Mason-Dixon poll shows the race to be a dead heat, with the candidates deadlocked at 43%.

This race is getting hotter. The National Republican Senatorial Committee just plunked down nearly a million bucks to target Claire McCaskill, the Dem challenger to increasingly endangered GOP Senator Jim Talent. Records just filed with the Federal Election Commission show that the NRSC yesterday dumped $836,379 into the race, almost all of it for ads. Get ready for slime time.

Sen. Jim Talent has claimed that he has never voted to cut health benefits for Veterans. In a recent interview with local TV station KY3, Talent was asked by a reporter whether he had voted to cut health care premiums for veterans, Talent responded, "No." However his voting record tells a different story. In the last two years Talent has voted “nay” three times on several bills that sought to make mandatory or expand health coverage for veterans.

In what must be one of the smartest moves of this election year, the McCaskill campaign was able to ensure that the Rams season opener against the Denver Broncos would be broadcast on the local St. Louis station KMOV-TV.  By purchasing the remaining 100 tickets left unsold, McCaskill ensured that the game would be broadcast.  According the NFL’s blackout rules, a team has 72 hours before kickoff to sell out or they’ll be blacked out locally, thanks to a 24 hour extension due to the absence of ticket sales on labor day and some quick thinking by the McCaskill campaign, St. Louis was able to watch their beloved Rams beat the Broncos in the season opener.   The $4400 spent on the tickets bought them more positive press coverage than any ad could have.  The tickets were given to St. Louis high school students from the Clyde C. Miller Career Academy and to the George Washington Carver House, a local organization which provides help to families and children in crisis.

One of the big questions that will drive this fall's elections is this: Do the American people feel safer since 9/11, as the GOP insists they are, or do they think we're less safe, as Dems argue? You could see that battle playing out in microcosm yesterday in the hard fought debate between GOP incumbent Senator Jim Talent and Dem challenger Claire McCaskill. The voters' verdict on this question could hinge on how focused they are on the mayhem and destruction in Iraq -- which explains why Talent avoided any mention of Iraq, while McCaskill focused relentlessly on it. The debate is here -- get ready for much more like it between now and November.

Some GOP Senators not mired in tough races are helping struggling colleagues by advancing the GOP strategy of implying -- without actually saying -- that Sept. 11 was somehow connected to Iraq. On Friday, GOP Senator Kit Bond offered a classic of this genre, giving a speech saying that the insurgents we’re fighting in Iraq are the "same enemy" that attacked us on 9/11. Unfortunately for Bond, the GOP-controlled Senate Intelligence Committee released a report saying that the Senate Intelligence Committee’s findings that Saddam had no relationship with Al-Qaeda on the exact same day as his speech.

You really have to see this one to believe it. A right-wing group called "Progress for America" has just taken the Bush "national security" strategy to a ridiculously lurid extreme: It's running a new TV ad just in time for the Sept. 11 anniversary which is almost comically desperate in its efforts to scare voters. The ad is running in Missouri -- where GOP Senator Jim Talent is fending off a tough challenge from Claire McCatskill. But get this: The ad doesn't say anything at all specific to Missouri. It just says that "these people want to kill us" (meaning terrorists) and that "some" want to "cut and run" from the Middle East. View it here.

“Progress for America”—a front for the Republican party--has launched a new TV spot, which will run on national cable and Missouri in particular, just in time to commemorate the fifth anniversary of 9/11. Curiously, the ad does not mention a single candidate, party, or the president by name, it just makes it clear that you will be killed by terrorists should you vote for “those” or “some” who want to “cut and run” from the Middle East. Despite the President’s recent efforts to distance himself from the notion that there was ever any collusion between Iraq and the 9/11 attacks, the ad clearly reinforces the idea that Iraq had something to do with 9/11. Ironically, the ad states that the terrorists want to kill anyone who doesn’t submit to a system where “women have no rights” and “innocent civilians are political pawns”, but enough about Karl Rove, what about those terrorists?

The DSCC has finally gotten around to spending some of the $6 million they promised to dump into the race between GOP Senator Jim Talent and challenger Claire McCatskill. It has just launched its first ad -- titled "Gas" -- slamming Talent for his votes supporting billions in tax breaks for oil companies. The ad is a counterattack against the negative ads Talent released over the weekend attacking Ms. McCaskill for supporting the “death tax”, calling Howard Dean “her hero”, and voting against the state’s constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. View the new McCatskill ad here.

Did GOP Senator Jim Talent -- a professed foe of hugely controversial "amnesty" for illegal aliens -- get taped saying in a casual conversation that amnesty works? Missouri Dems are circulating a video which they say demonstrates Talent's hypocrisy on the issue. It shows Talent in an exchange with a voter where he appears to say: "That’s the lesson we learned several years ago. Not that amnesty doesn’t work, but that you don’t call it amnesty." You can view the tape here. We're not sure yet what this reveals. Our quick analysis -- and more from Dems -- after the jump.

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Did GOP Senator Jim Talent -- a professed foe of amnesty for illegal aliens -- get caught on tape saying in a casual conversation that amnesty works? The Missouri Democratic Party is circulating a tape which shows Talent in a quick exchange with a voter, in which he appears to say: "That’s the lesson we learned several years ago. Not that amnesty doesn’t work, but that you don’t call it amnesty." You can view the tape here. For now we're reserving judgment on what this reveals, however. Our quick analysis of the tape -- and more from the local Dems -- after the jump.

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GOP incumbent Senator Jim Talent is refusing to take a position on a state minimum-wage ballot initiative that has become a hot issue in his closely fought campaign against Dem challenger Clair McCatskill, who supports the effort. Talent's excuse? He claims he doesn't take positions on state issues.

Except, of course, when he does. He opposed a state measure that would have protected embryonic stem cell research in Missouri.

The Times weighs in with an editorial on the hard-fought Senate race between incumbent GOP Senator Jim Talent and Dem challenger Claire McCaskill, charging that the GOP is using new voter regs to surpress turnout for the Dem: "In close elections, like the bitterly contested U.S. Senate race now under way in the state, this disenfranchisement could easily make the difference in who wins."

Meanwhile, Talent becomes the latest to flee President Bush and the GOP with a new TV ad: "Most people don't care if you're Red or Blue, Republican or Democrat." And Kos takes a look at Talent's Web site and couldn't find the word "Republican."

Roy Temple at Fired Up! Missouri has done a fine job covering the latest controversy in the state’s tight Senate race between incumbent Jim Talent (R) and Claire McCaskill (D). And by “controversy,” I mean the Talent campaign’s effort to stir up controversy with an accusation against McCaskill that Talent’s own FEC report contradicts.

Let me explain.

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President Bush may have vetoed the stem cell research bill out of camera range yesterday, but that may not stop his high-profile stance on the contentious issue from damaging GOP candidates like Sen. Jim Talent (R) come November.

By focussing public attention on the controversial question, it puts Talent -- who's facing a challenge from Claire McCaskill (D) -- and other heartland Republican candidates in a political bind, forcing them to strike a balance between their conservative bases and the greater numbers who support the potentially lifesaving cures the research could provide.

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If Democrats are to cut into Republicans' control of the Senate, Missouri’s seat is one they need to pick up. State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) has been running neck-and-neck with Sen. Jim Talent (R) since September.

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The latest Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Mike DeWine (R) leading Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) 46%-39%. It also has DeWine’s favorability rating several points higher than Brown’s.

The latest Survey USA poll has Brown ahead 48%-39% – with DeWine ahead 13 percentage points among “the youngest voters.” Survey USA also has DeWine’s approval rating at 41%.

The latest WSJ/Zogby poll has Brown ahead almost 13 percentage points. He has led DeWine since October.

What gives? Why is Brown up 13 in one poll, and down 7 in another?

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