Another incumbent Republican Senator has gone to defeat, with John Sununu of New Hampshire losing to Dem challenger Jeanne Shaheen in projections from CBS, NBC and Fox.
Sununu narrowly defeated Shaheen back in 2002, when New Hampshire was the Republicans' New England stronghold. But the Bush years have now realigned this long-time GOP bastion into a Democratic-leaning state -- for example, a lot of nets called it for Obama right when the polls closed.
Sununu didn't commit any particular fireable offense. Instead, he was a standard conservative Republican who found the political ground drastically shift right under his feet.
Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:
Bachmann: It Is "Absolutely A Lie" That I Questioned Obama's Patriotism
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) told the Washington Times that people are lying about her McCarthyite rant on Hardball last week. "I did not question Barack Obama's patriotism, I did not say he was anti-American," Bachmann said. "And the other accusation is that I was calling for members of Congress to be investigated on their anti-American views. That's absolutely a lie."
House GOPer's Ad: Dem Opponent Favors Driver's License For 9/11 Hijacker
Check out this new TV ad from Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL), who is facing a very tough re-election battle. The ad accuses Democratic challenger Suzanne Kosmas of favoring driver's licenses for illegal-alien terrorists -- using a picture of 9/11 hijacker Muhammad Atta:
Feeney's problems here stem from his having been implicated in the Jack Abramoff scandals, and he's gone so far as to tape an ad in which he abjectly apologized for it. The Democrats have released internal polling showing him losing in a landslide, but he clearly thinks that playing the terrorism card could help him recover in this GOP-leaning district.
Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:
Dems Preparing For Major Offensive Against Bachmann
The DCCC now plans to spend $1 million against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) in the wake of her McCarthyite rant on Hardball, sensing that voters back home might end up turning against her extremism. A TV ad should be coming in the next few days. Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report has changed its rating on Bachmann, downgrading her by two whole positions from "Likely Republican" to "Tossup."
Democracy Corps: Congressional Dems Poised For Another Wave
A new set of polling from Democracy Corps, the strategy firm headed up by James Carville and Stan Greeberg, finds Democrats running strong in the 50 most-competitive House seats currently held by the GOP. Democrats lead 48%-46% in the full set of battleground district, and lead 51%-43% in the tier making up the most competitive seats of the 50. At the rate things are going, Democrats could pick up even more seats in the cycle right after they already enjoyed a wave -- a rare occurrence in politics.
Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:
Foley Successor Embroiled In Own Allegations of Misconduct
Democrats could end up losing a key Florida House seat that they picked up in 2006: The district of the infamous former GOP Rep. Mark Foley. Freshman Democrat Tim Mahoney reportedly agreed to pay $121,000 to a former female staffer and alleged mistress, after she threatened to sue him. Mahoney is facing a competitive challenge from GOP candidate Tom Rooney.
Dem Ad: Norm Coleman Is "Shameless"
The DSCC has this new ad against Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), lampooning his recent announcement that he'll suspend negative advertisement as a ploy to avoid responsibility for his own misleading attacks and personal scandals:
"Suit from Neiman Marcus: $1,400. Misleading attack ads paid for by you and your allies: $6.8 million," the announcer says. "Calling for a suspension of negative ads after smearing your opponent? Shameless."
Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:
Poll: GOP Senator Chambliss In Dead Heat For Re-Election
In a very interesting development, a new Research 2000 poll gives Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), who was believed to be more or less invulnerable going into this campaign, a statistically insignificant lead of 45%-44% over Democrat Jim Martin. This corroborates a SurveyUSA poll taken last week, which put Chambliss ahead 46%-44%, as the economy continues to take a toll on Republicans even in seemingly safe places.
Dem Candidate Ties GOP Incumbent To Bush -- And Tuxedo-Wearing
This new ad from Senate candidate Jeff Merkley (D-OR) launches one of the most novel attacks on the economy that I've ever seen: It depicts incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith (R) standing next to George W. Bush -- and they're both wearing tuxedos:
Maybe next, Merkley will run an ad tying Gordon Smith to the Monopoly Man.
Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races.
Minnesota GOP Accused Of Playing Up Racial Angle In House Race
Now this is awkward. The Minnesota Dems are circulating this tracker video of a state GOP press conference from Tuesday, in which reporters asked some very tough questions about wether the party was using race as an issue in saying that their House candidate Erik Paulsen better fits the "demographic" of the district than Democrat Ashwin Madia, who is Indian-American:
"I'm just saying from a demographic standpoint, Erik Paulsen fits the district very well," said state party chairman Ron Carey. A spokesperson for the state party declined to speak to Election Central when approached for comment.
Endangered GOP Senator Links Himself To Ted Kennedy In New Ad
Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), who has fallen behind in the polls against Democrat Jeff Merkley in this blue state, has this new ad touting his support for gay rights -- and his work with Ted Kennedy on the issue:
Smith has previously run ads tying himself in with Barack Obama and John Kerry -- the latter of whom he'd previously called a socialist back in 2004.
Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: Democrats are running strong in some key races, thanks to the economic crisis -- but some other opportunities could be slipping away.
Senate GOP Ad Bashes Bailout Supported By Incumbent Senator, Opposed By Dem
The NRSC has this new ad in the Oregon Senate race that is strongly critical of Wall St. and Washington, then says Dem candidate Jeff Merkley would make things worse:
"Our economy in trouble, Wall St. and Washington gambling with our money, piling up more government debt," the announcer says. It should be noted here that incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith voted for the bailout, and Merkley is opposing it. And then there are the two chief leaders of the GOP, George W. Bush and John McCain, who both support it.
Al Franken's Wife Talks About Alcoholism In New Ad
The Franken campaign has this new ad out presenting an image of a very human and compassionate Al Franken, at odds with the idea of a manic and angry person that the GOP has worked to project. In this spot, Franken's wife Franni talks about her struggle with alcoholism, and Al's work to help other people with this problem:
"The Al Franken I know stood by me through thick and thin," Franni Franken says. "So I know he'll always come through for Minnesotans."
Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: Dems are continuing to hammer the Republicans on the economy, as the GOP faces some more bad poll numbers.
GOP Rep: I Wouldn't Have Picked Palin
Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) told the Chicago Tribune, "Quite frankly, I don't know" whether Sarah Palin is qualified to be president. In a very frank admission, Kirk added, "I would have picked someone different." As the Tribune noted, Kirk was initially a vocal supporter of Palin's nomination when it was first announced. (Via Progress Illinois)
Dem Ad: Coleman's Attacks Against Franken Are Ridiculous
The DSCC has this funny ad out, mocking the GOP's attacks against Al Franken:
"Al Franken sank this ship! Crashed these trains! And he hates puppies!" the announcer says. There is one problem, though: This ad is reminiscent of the humorous "Steele hates puppies" ad from the 2006 Maryland Senate race -- and Michael Steele lost by ten points.
Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: With GOPers scrambling to staunch the political bleeding amid the meltdown, all signs point to Dems gaining in multiple down-ticket races.
Bachmann Blames Loans To Minorities For Financial Crisis
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is laying the blame for the financial crisis on loans made to minorities, saying in a hearing that the Clinton Administration encouraged the granting of mortgages "on the basis of race and often on little else." Roll Callreports that Bachmann stepped back from her comment just a bit, saying that the policies were "well-intentioned."
Cheney Cancels Campaign Stop For House Candidate, Citing Economic Crisis
Vice President Cheney has canceled a scheduled campaign stop today for Ed Tinsley, the Republican nominee or an open GOP-held House seat in New Mexico, and is instead staying in Washington to assist in negotiations on the financial bailout.
Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: The Dems are hammering away at Republicans over the financial crisis, raising questions on everything from regulation to the potential impact on Social Security -- and it may be working.
Dems Blast Sununu For Anti-Regulation History
New Hampshire Democrats are hitting Sen. John Sununu (R) on the market crisis, circulating to local media tapes of Sununu in 2006 and 2007, praising hedge funds and badmouthing regulation of the financial markets:
Dems Keep Up Spending On House Race Attack Ads
The DCCC spent $1.8 million on a round of attacks against GOP candidates in last night's FEC filings, covering 20 races in 14 states. Most signifiant is the spending of over $450,000 in three Ohio races. Here's one of those ads:
Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: National Democrats are spending big, but a new round of polling could give the GOP some hope in key races.
Lieberman Defends GOPer Norm Coleman From Dem Attacks, Says Iraq War Had Proper Oversight
Joe Lieberman has put out a statement on behalf of Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), disputing Al Franken's attack that Coleman didn't do enough to provide oversight over Iraq contracts while he chaired an important subcommittee. "It is simply untrue, and irresponsible, to suggest that while Norm Coleman was investigating corruption here at home, that investigations in Iraq were not going on," Lieberman wrote.
National Dems Shell Out Big Bucks For Attack Ads Today
The DCCC has spent over $1.5 million today for their new wave of attack ads, according to the FEC newest filings. Money is being spent in 14 races across ten states, most notably $310,000 for three seats in John McCain's home state of Arizona. Here's one of those ads, targeting the Republican challenger against freshman Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ):
Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: GOP candidates are on the defensive on the economic crisis in a big way -- and in their fumbling efforts to respond are digging themselves in deeper and deeper.
Coleman Keeps Saying Government Could Net Huge Profit On Bailout
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is defending his bizarre statement on Monday that the proposed $700 billion bailout for Wall St. could make the government a profit of 10 or 20 times the principal. "If you buy assets at close to fire-sale prices and the market stabilizes, you'll see an improvement in assets," Coleman said -- forgetting that this bailout is structured in such a way as to specifically avoid buying assets at fire-sale prices, and the securities being bought would be unlikely to return to their hypothetical maturity valuations.
GOP Candidate's Staffer Uses Fake Name At Dem Candidate's Press Conference
The press secretary for House candidate Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has been caught calling into a press conference by Democrat Gary Trauner, using a fake name and identifying herself as a Trauner supporter so as to better asked a pointed question about the Dems' energy policies. This seat has been in GOP hands since the 1978 election, but Trauner's near-win back in 2006 makes this a very competitive race for the open race this time around.
Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races: An avalanche of polls shows the Democrats running ahead or close behind in several seats that have been in GOP hands for years -- suggesting the possibility of major Dem gains.
GOP Rep's Ad: I'm Sorry I Went On An Abramoff Trip
This ad needs to be seen to be believed. Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL), who is facing a spirited challenge from Democrat Suzanne Kosmas, has this new ad in which he speaks to the camera and abjectly apologizes for going on an Abramoff-sponsored trip five years ago:
"I embarrassed myself, embarrassed you, and for that I'm very sorry," Feeney says.
Polls Show Big House Races In Ohio This Year
A new set of SurveyUSA polls in Ohio show Dems poised to pick up two out of four contested GOP-held district. In the First District, incumbent Rep. Steve Chabot (R) is holding a small lead over challenger Steve Driehaus (D) 46%-44%. In the Second District, Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) is holding an 8-point lead over challenger Victoria Wulsin (D) 48%-40%. But in the open 15th and 16th Districts Mary Jo Kilroy (D) has a 47%-42% lead over Steve Stivers (R), and John Boccieri (D) has a 49%-41% lead over Kirk Schuring (R).
Here's this morning's rundown on the Congressional race: Economic insecurities are taking a greater and greater role in the Congressional races, with candidates giving their responses to corporate malpractice -- or being accused of it themselves.
DCCC Shelling Out Big Money
The DCCC dropped a cool $1.75 million on ads in 15 House races yesterday, flexing their cash advantage over the Republicans. One expenditure seriously stands out: Nearly half a million dollars to defend freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH), who faces a very tough rematch against former Congressman Jeb Bradley.
Gordon Smith Facing More Pressure On Hiring Illegal Immigrants The Willamette Week has intensified its reporting on the hiring of illegal immigrants by the family business of Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), which Smith has called a "hatchet-job." Now the paper has upped the ante, with on-the-record testimonials from illegal immigrants who have themselves worked at the Smith Frozen Foods plant.
Welcome to our newest feature here at Election Central -- a roundup of the latest news on a lot of those important down-ballot races.
The presidential race is obviously the biggest thing out there, but all across the country there are a lot of important elections going on that will collectively have an enormous effect on the agenda this country pursues and how effectively the next president will be able to govern.
In these roundups we hope to give you an idea of the big picture going on in those races -- not to mention the individual races themselves in all their quirky, dramatic and often brutally negative glory.
Look for the roundup twice every weekday, one at roughly 11 a.m. ET and one at 6 p.m. ET.
And without further ado...
New Dem Ad Against Coleman: Forget Hockey, We Want Jobs
The DSCC is running this new ad against Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who has been running humorous ads boasting about how he brought professional hockey back to the state. "I wish someone would bring the economy back," one woman says in the ad:
Dem Ad Against Sununu: "He Doesn't Even See Us"
Here's the DSCC's new ad against the very vulnerable Sen. John Sununu (R-NH), casting him as out of touch on the economy:
GOP Senator To Skip Debate, Opponent Will Speak Alone
Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), who is in a competitive race for re-election in this blue state, will be skipping a debate scheduled for October 17 at the City Club of Portland. Instead, Democratic state House Speaker Jeff Merkley will stand alone and take questions from state journalists.
Smith Taking Heat On Illegal Immigration Story
Gordon Smith is also facing tough questions due to a story in the liberal paper Willamette Week that alleges his company, Smith Frozen Foods, employs illegal aliens. Smith appeared this week on the Lars Larson radio show, telling the state's premier right-wing talker that it's all a media hatchet-job, but Larson wasn't impressed and later toldThe Oregonian, "They've nailed him pretty well."
Poll: Dem Incumbent Up In Big Indiana House Race
A new SurveyUSA poll has Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN) ahead of Republican Mike Sodrel by a solid 50%-39% margin. This is the fourth consecutive time these two have run against each other -- Hill narrowly won in 2002, Sodrel then won in 2004, and Hill came back to defeat Sodrel in 2006.
Dem House Candidate Blasts Idaho's Sali For Staffers Doing Campaign Work
Walt Minnick, the Dem nominee running against controversial Rep. Bill Sali (R-ID), has unveiled a new pledgea in his quest to win in a deep-red district: That if elected, he will forbid or severely limit his staffers from working on his campaign. At least two of Sali's Congressional staffers do volunteer work on his campaign, saving him the campaign expense of hiring people to work full-time.
GOP Senators Still Not Paying Up To NRSC
The Senate GOP's campaign committee is still having big problems getting its members to donate sufficiently, and they've had to roll back or cancel ad reservations in important states like New Mexico. Said Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), who has nearly doubled his personal quota while others have stalled: "The Democrats want it more than we do."
Another GOP Senator is getting rid of money he's received from Sen. Ted Stevens' Leadership PAC: Sen. John Sununu of New Hampshire, who is trailing his Dem opponent Jeanne Shaheen in the polls.
"Team Sununu will be donating to charity the $10,000 received during this 2008 campaign cycle from Northern Lights PAC," said campaign manager Paul Collins, in a statement sent to Election Central. "The campaign had previously donated to charity contributions received from VECO employees who pled guilty to wrongdoing."
McCain Credits Surge For Event From Before The Surge
John McCain has been been caught in a big foreign policy slip, saying during his interview with CBS Evening News that the surge was responsible for the Anbar Awakening, an event that first happened before the surge. Even more embarrassing for the media -- a group that the McCain camp says is for Obama -- CBS edited the gaffe out of the broadcast version, but still left it in the online version.
Obama Visits Sites, Meets Officials In Israel
Barack Obama's tour of Israel has continued while all of us in America were asleep, with the candidate visiting the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial and museum in Jerusalem, then meeting with high-profile Israeli and Palestinian officials. On the list of those he has met with or will be meeting with later: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.
McCain In Pennsylvania
John McCain is holding a town hall event at 10 a.m. ET in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, part of his tour of swing states while Barack Obama is overseas. Expect this event to stay in keeping with the tone of the last few days: Officially it's about domestic issues, but a good part of it will be spent bashing Obama on foreign policy issues relating to the countries he's now visiting.
Volunteer Tells McCain: Get New Staff
A McCain supporter volunteering for his campaign offered her advice to the candidate during his New Hampshire stop yesterday -- perhaps the best advice he's gotten this year. "You've got to make some changes," the woman said. "I've had problems with a lot of your paid staff."
Ron Paul Ready To Make Bigger Trouble For The GOP
Ron Paul's supporters have moved his planned "Rally For The Republic" -- essentially a massive protest of the Republican convention -- to the 15,000-seat Target Center in Minneapolis, a larger venue than originally planned. This should be a sight: A bunch of Paul-heads speaking out against the modern GOP, with the candidate himself joining in for the fun.
New Hampshire Senate Race Leans Dem CQ has changed their rating on the New Hampshire Senate race from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democrat," giving Dem former Governor Jeanne Shaheen an edge over incumbent Republican John Sununu. The only surprising thing is that this didn't happen sooner -- Shaheen has led by comfortable margins in nearly every poll taken since she got in the race.
Here's yet another variation of the GOP-pushed tall tale that China and Cuba are drilling for oil off American shores.
This latest one comes courtesy of GOP Senator John Sununu of New Hampshire, who has trailed Democratic opponent Jeanne Shaheen by wide margins in all the polls, and who by our count is the eighth GOPer to push this silly myth.
Sununu's version: He's dropped the China part from the tale -- now it's the Cubans who are supposedly doing the oil drilling.
National Dems are bullish about expanding their Senate majority, given that they're dramatically out-raising the GOP and that they have the Republicans on defense in multiple states.
And here comes the first wave of ads from Dem Senate candidates, a sign that Dems are aggressively shifting into general election mode, even if the presidential race hasn't quite finished yet.
Here's the new ad from Jeanne Shaheen, who is running ahead of incumbent John Sununu in the New Hampshire Senate race:
In a good sign for Democratic efforts to expand their Senate majority this year, a new Rasmussen poll of the New Hampshire Senate race finds former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen ahead of GOP Sen. John Sununu, who narrowly defeated her back in 2002.
The numbers, compared to the last poll from a month ago:
Shaheen 51% (+2)
Sununu 43% (+2)
Sample size: 500 likely voters
Margin of error: ±4%
Shaheen has consistently led in polls since even before she announced her candidacy, making Sununu the single most vulnerable incumbent Senator from either party this year.
In a sign of just how seriously the GOP is working to stop the bleeding in the Senate, incumbent Senator John Sununu (R) is maintaining a better than 2-1 cash advantage over Dem challenger Jeanne Shaheen in the closely-watched New Hampshire Senate race.
Sununu took in just over $1 million for the first quarter, actually slightly less than Shaheen's $1.2 million, but maintains a cash-on-hand advantage of $4.3 million to the former Dem governor's $2 million.
Sununu will need the money, though -- the polls have mostly put him way behind Shaheen thus far in their rematch.
A new Rasmussen poll shows first-term Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) trailing former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), his 2002 opponent, by a decent margin. Here are the numbers, compared to Rasmussen's last poll in September:
Shaheen (D) 49% (+1) Sununu (R) 41% (-2)
Sununu is the single most vulnerable incumbent GOP Senator this cycle, and has trailed Shaheen in nearly all polls since she declared her candidacy.
