A new round of polls today shows a continued close race in four key battleground states that all voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but there is reason for cautious optimism about Barack Obama.

A new University of Akron poll shows Ohio to be tied: Obama 40%, McCain 40%. The internals show just how important Democratic unity is for Obama: Only 45% of people who voted for Hillary Clinton in the Ohio primary say they'll vote for Obama, with 29% going for McCain and the rest undecided -- but as this poll totally predates Hillary's big speech at the convention, this could change.

And a new round of CNN polls in three Western states shows Obama generally doing quite well:

• He's up 53%-40% in New Mexico, well outside the ±4% margin of error.

• He's up 49%-44% in Nevada, with a ±4% margin of error -- contrary to other recent polls that have McCain ahead here.

• However, McCain is given a slight edge in the potentially pivotal state of Colorado: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, with a ±4% margin of error. This poll was taken partly during the Dem Convention in Denver, so it's still possible that the convention in its entirety can produce a local bounce.

Late Update: In addition, the CNN poll has Obama up 48%-43% in Pennsylvania.

A new pair of Rasmussen polls gives John McCain narrow leads in the key swing states of Nevada and Virginia, a sign that the presidential race remains very competitive on the state-by-stat level.

The numbers in Nevada: McCain 48%, Obama 45%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. In another worry sign for Democrats, McCain's personal ratings are at 58% favorable to 42% unfavorable, compared to only 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable for Obama.

In Virginia: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. McCain's favorable are at 51%-36%, with Obama's at 51%-47%.

New Obama Ad In Nevada Attacks McCain On Yucca Mountain
The Obama campaign has a new negative spot airing in the perennial swing state of Nevada, hammering John McCain on the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. The ad warns Nevadans that John McCain is in favor of opening the repository in their state -- even though he'd be against nuclear waste being brought through his own home state:

Obama Arrives In Hawaii
Barack Obama and his family have arrived in Hawaii for their week-long vacation. Although the trip will be mostly rest and relaxation for the candidate, he did greet supporters at a rally to welcome his arrival: "I'm going to go bodysurfing at an undisclosed location."

McCain In Nevada Today
John McCain will be in Nevada today -- the same state where the Obama people are on the air attacking him -- giving an address to the Disabled American Veterans convention in Las Vegas. The speech is scheduled to begin at 4:45 p.m.

Obama: McCain's Pro-Bush Agenda Goes Against "Country First" Slogan
Barack Obama recorded this week's Democratic rebuttal to the president's weekly radio address -- the first time he has done so as the presumptive nominee for president. Obama used the speech to go after John McCain: "Senator McCain talks about putting our country first, but he is running for a third term of the very same policies that have set our country back. We can't afford to take that chance."

McCain: Obama Is Like "A Big Summer Blockbuster"
John McCain upped the rhetoric in his campaign's efforts to paint Barack obama as a vapid celebrity, using this line in his weekly radio address: "Taking in my opponent's performances is a little like watching a big summer blockbuster, and an hour in realizing that all the best scenes were in the trailer you saw last fall."

Poll: Dem Ahead For Missouri Governor's Race
A new Rasmussen poll of the Missouri gubernatorial race shows Democratic nominee Jay Nixon, the long-serving state attorney general, significantly ahead of Congressman Kenny Hulshof, the Republican nominee. The numbers: Nixon 53%, Hulshof 42%.

Edwards: Photo Of Man With Baby Might Be Me
During his interview yesterday with ABC News, John Edwards did not rule out the possibility that he is the man in the National Enquirer's blurry photograph of a man holding a baby -- alleged by the tabloid to be his own baby with Rielle Hunter. But Edwards said the photo doesn't necessarily mean anything: "Do you know how many pictures have been taken of me holding children in the last three years? I mean it happens all the time."

A new Rasmussen poll suggests that Barack Obama has moved into a narrow lead in the perennial swing state of Nevada, in line with his campaign's goal of aggressively advertising in Western states.

The numbers: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the ±4.5% margin of error. A month ago, John McCain was ahead by three points.

The key number: Obama has improved his showing among core Democrats, suggesting that there isn't much in the way of long-lasting damage from the long primary campaign. Obama now has 79% of core Dems, an improvement from 65% two months ago, and is comparable to McCain's 76% of core Republicans.

A new Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire gives Barack Obama a big lead in this swing state, which went narrowly to George W. Bush in 2000 and then switched to John Kerry in 2004.

The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 39%. A month ago, Obama had only a 48%-43% edge.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen gives McCain a small lead in Nevada, which voted for Bush twice: McCain 45%, Obama 42%, within the ± 4.5% margin of error.

A new Mason-Dixon poll shows a competitive race for Nevada, a swing Western state that went for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but then for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.

The numbers: McCain 44%, Obama 42%, within the ±4% margin of error.

The Obama campaign has vowed to fight for Western states, but Nevada appears to be a tougher sell than either Colorado or New Mexico, where polls have put him ahead.

A new Rasmussen poll of Nevada shows that this red state could be poised to vote Democratic this time around, with both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton narrowly beating John McCain for now:

Clinton (D) 44%, McCain (R) 43%
Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 41%

Nevada is a key swing state that voted twice for President Bush, but only narrowly each time.

The Obama campaign has officially submitted a complaint to the Nevada Democratic Party, citing over 1,600 complaints of malfeasance by the Clinton operation during this weekend's past caucuses. Alleged offenses include early door closings, obstruction voters, and improper handling of voter preference cards.

It's hard to tell just what impact this complaint could have, if any. If it leads to actual infractions by the Hillary operation being uncovered, it might reflect badly on them nationwide — or alternatively, the complaint itself could give Obama's rivals the opening to call him a "sore loser," regardless of whether or not the complaint is accurate.

This happened in a blur late yesterday, so it seems worth a quick revisit to clarify what happened. Yesterday the Hillary and Obama campaigns were battling over who actually won the most delegates, with the Obama campaign and the Associated Press saying the real tally was 13 for the Illinois Senator, and 12 for Hillary.

The Hillary campaign countered that no delegates get officially awarded until April. As noted here yesterday, the Nevada State Democratic Party released this statement to clarify things:

"No national convention delegates were awarded. That said, if the delegate preferences remain unchanged between now and April 2008, the calculations of national convention delegates being circulated by the Associated Press are correct. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support."

So it appears likely that the AP's count will stand, and that Obama will end up having won one more delegate last night. The Obama camp is trying to invest this with significance by pointing out that the Hillary camp was describing the race as a battle for delegates after their Iowa loss.

On the other hand, though final tallies aren't yet available, all indications are that the Hillary campaign enjoyed a clear electoral win last night, which the political opinion-making class, and perhaps also the voters, will likely see as having a good deal more significance than Obama's one-delegate advantage.

The Hillary campaign has a new statement out responding to the Obama camp's claim that they won more delegates in Nevada:

Hillary Clinton won the Nevada Caucuses today by winning a majority of the delegates at stake.

The Obama campaign is wrong. Delegates for the national convention will not be determined until April 19.

Meanwhile, the Nevada Dem party releases this statement:

“Today, two out of three Nevadans who caucused chose a Democrat instead of a Republican for president. That is an overwhelming majority vote for a new direction. Just like in Iowa, what was awarded today were delegates to the county convention. No national convention delegates were awarded. The calculations of national convention delegates being circulated are based upon an assumption that delegate preferences will remain the same between now and April 2008. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support.”

Late Update: The Nevada Dem party releases this clarification:

"No national convention delegates were awarded. That said, if the delegate preferences remain unchanged between now and April 2008, the calculations of national convention delegates being circulated by the Associated Press are correct. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support."

On a conference call with reporters just now, Obama top adviser David Plouffe made a surprising claim: He said Barack Obama actually won more federal nominating delegates out of the caucus, despite their six-point loss to Hillary. The Obama camp's final count: Obama 13 delegates, Hillary 12.

That flips around the totals that were reported, which were Hillary 13, and Obama 12.

The Obama camp's argument: The state Democratic Party set up rules for apportioning the federal delegates across the Congressional districts, and then further sub-divided the Second District into three portions. Hillary's support was concentrated in Clark County (the Las Vegas area), while Obama ran ahead of her in the rest of the state — meaning that he was able to prevail among the delegates given over to the rural areas.

Of course, it's unclear whether any of this matters, absent an official declaration from the Nevada Dem party, which we haven't seen yet. And it's also unclear whether a delegate victory, rather than the electoral outcome, will be seen as a win -- though in fairness, when Hillary was losing, Hillary advisers described this battle as a delegate fight.

On the conference call (which was reported by TPM's Eric Kleefeld), Obama adviser Plouffe was asked whether this means that Obama won the Nevada Caucus. Plouffe's response: "Well, honestly, we'll leave that to you guys."

Late Update: The Associated Press says that Obama officially won the delegate count:

She captured the popular vote, but Obama edged her out for national convention delegates at stake, taking 13 to her 12.

As others have noted, one of the big stories of the night is the disappointing finish of John Edwards, who came in with less than 5%. Here's the statement just out from the Edwards campaign, in full:

“Congratulations to Senator Clinton for her win in Nevada. Our campaign is very grateful to all those who demonstrated the loyalty and dedication to stand up for John Edwards in the face of very difficult circumstances and long odds, including our brothers and sisters in Nevada from the Carpenters, Steelworkers, Transport Workers, and Communications Workers of America.

“John Edwards is the underdog in this campaign, facing two $100 million candidates. But that is nothing compared to the real underdogs in our country – working men and women, middle class families, and all those who have no voice in Washington.

“John Edwards is in this race to fight for the real underdogs and to make sure the voices of the American people are heard in Washington, not the special interests. That’s why he’s the only candidate in this race who has never taken a dime from PACs or Washington lobbyists; the only candidate who will ban corporate lobbyists from his White House; and the only candidate who is honest enough to say we are in a fight for our country and we need to take on the special interests if we are going to have a country that works for hard-working families and the middle class.

“The race to the nomination is a marathon and not a sprint, and we’re committed to making sure the voices of all the voters in the remaining 47 states are heard. The nomination won’t be decided by win-loss records, but by delegates, and we’re ready to fight for every delegate. Saving the middle class is going to be an epic battle, and that’s a fight John Edwards is ready for.”

If you look at the entrance polls of the Nevada Dem caucuses today, it's striking how starkly the vote is breaking down along racial, ethnic and generational lines.

Among Latinos, Hillary is beating Obama, 64%-24%.

But among blacks, Obama dramatically increased his lead over Hillary from earlier in the contest, beating her 79%-16%

Meanwhile, Hillary beat back what appeared to be a stiff challenge from Obama for the female vote, beating him 52%-35%

And the vote broke down sharply along generational lines, too. Hillary beat Obama handily among both the 45-59 and the 60 and older set, while Obama won by sizable margins among voters aged 18-44.

MSNBC calls it for Hillary. With 84% reporting, it's ...

Hillary 50%

Obama 45%

Edwards 4%

An Obama adviser is on MSNBC, explaining the loss by saying that "this will continue to be an insurgent campaign." More in a bit.

Late Update: CBS calls it for Hillary, too. And so does CNN.

Late Update: The entrance polls show some very interesting things about how today's vote is breaking down along racial, ethnic and generational lines.

MSNBC calls it for Hillary. With 84% reporting, it's ...

Hillary 50%

Obama 45%

Edwards 4%

An Obama adviser is on MSNBC, explaining the loss by saying that "this will continue to be an insurgent campaign." More in a bit.

Late Update: CBS calls it for Hillary, too. And so does CNN.

Late Update: The entrance polls show some very interesting things about how today's vote is breaking down along racial, ethnic and generational lines.

A last minute dirty trick in Nevada? The Obama campaign is claiming that a last-minute call, perhaps a robocall, has gone out to numerous Nevadans -- a call that repeatedly refers to Obama as "Barack Hussein Obama."

The Obama camp just released a recording of the call, and says it has received "numerous" reports of it from recipients. We have not been able to independently confirm the call or its origins. Give it a listen:

The call says: "I'm calling with some important information about Barack Hussein Obama. It repeats "Barack Hussein Obama" several times. For instance: "Barack Hussein Obama says he doesn't take money from Washington lobbyists or special interest groups but the record is clear that he does."

And: "You just can't take a chance on Barack Hussein Obama."

It's unclear whether this is a robocall. To our ears it sounds more like someone reading from a call script.

This video -- posted over at MyDD -- is definitely worth a watch: It shows Edwards at an event in Reno demanding that Obama repudiate the controversial radio ad, aired by the Illinois Senator's labor ally, saying Hillary doesn't respect Latinos:

Edwards points out that Obama raised holy heck about the fact that Edwards' third-party labor allies ran positive ads on his behalf, and asks why Obama won't condemn this "divisive" third-party effort. The Obama camp has replied that this is only one ad and is dwarfed by the third-party spending on behalf of his rivals.

Interesting political context: After Iowa, Edwards went after Hillary heavily in the belief that she could be knocked out of the race, leaving only a two-man contest. Now Edwards is hitting Obama for politics as usual, perhaps a belated recognition that Obama is his real competitor, in that he's sopping up much of the "change" vote.

And around and around we go...

Obama spokesman Bill Burton responds to Hillary's Obama-Reagan blast with this:

“It’s hard to take Hillary Clinton’s latest attack seriously when she’s the one who supported George Bush’s war in Iraq, the most damaging Republican idea of our generation. While others were triangulating and poll-testing their positions, Senator Obama has been fighting for progressive ideals for over two decades."

Pulling it away from a discussion about Obama's conciliatory streak and back onto turf where Obama is more comfortable: Hillary's support for the war, and their argument about political caution and triangulation.

The Hillary campaign clearly made a decision to go all out on Obama's Reagan comments today. Hillary herself just lit into Obama over them in Las Vegas, according to a transcript provided by her campaign:

"I have to say, you know, my leading opponent the other day said that he thought the Republicans had better ideas than Democrats the last ten to fifteen years. That's not the way I remember the last ten to fifteen years.

"I don't think it's a better idea to privatize Social Security. I don't think it's a better idea to try to eliminate the minimum wage. I don't think it's a better idea to undercut health benefits and to give drug companies the right to make billions of dollars by providing prescription drugs to Medicare recipients. I don't think it's a better idea to shut down the government, to drive us into debt."

In fairness, Obama didn't really say that Republicans had better ideas than Dems (more on this here). This is what Obama said:

"The Republican approach I think has played itself out. I think it's fair to say the Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time over the last 10 or 15 years, in the sense that they were challenging conventional wisdom. Now, you've heard it all before. You look at the economic policies, when they're being debated among the presidential candidates, it's all tax cuts. Well, we've done that, we've tried it."

Between this and what Hillary's surrogates said today about this, it looks like the Hillary campaign is waging all-out war over the Reagan comments to "win" the last news cycle, as the political pros like to say. We'll see what happens.

Late Update: The Obama camp responds.

Late Late Update: Bill Clinton weighs in, too.

Still Later Update: It's probably worth pointing out that Obama's quote is saying that the GOP "challenged conventional wisdom" and suggests by default that the Dems didn't have any ideas. At the very least this is a poor choice of words on Obama's part.

For those of you who care about such stuff, here are Hillary's talking points of the day for Nevada, sent out by the campaign to surrogates and forwarded to us by a source:

Daily Talking Points, January 18, 2008

SOLUTIONS FOR THE AMERICAN ECONOMY

* Hillary continues her focus on the economy today in Las Vegas, holding a discussion with small business employees to hear directly about their struggles.

* She knows it will take a hands-on leader to manage our economy and hold government accountable for delivering results.

* Her aggressive $110 billion stimulus plan would assist the people who have been hardest hit by the economic downturn and who are most likely to spend new resources, which would boost the economy.

* Hillary would immediately stem the tide of foreclosures. Her plan would place a 90-day moratorium on subprime foreclosures and freeze rates on subprime mortgages for at least five years.

* She would also provide tax rebates, energy assistance grants, and extended unemployment insurance to those who need it most.

* Working families who are being left behind in Bush economy will no longer be invisible when Hillary is president.

So if you hear some of this stuff, you'll have an idea where it might have come from.

UNITE -- the Obama labor ally that stirred controversy yesterday by airing a radio ad in Nevada attacking Hillary for not respecting Latinos -- has just laid out nearly $14,000 for a new TV ad in the state, according to records filed with the FEC today.

Is it another negative hit?

The filing says that UNITE spent $13,645 on an ad that "supports" Obama, which suggests that it might be a positive spot.

But here's the thing. That radio ad hitting Hillary referenced above was also described in the FEC filings by the group as merely being supportive of Obama, even though it was a pretty hard hit on Hillary. The justification for this is presumably that the ad also praised Obama.

So it's fair to ask whether the new TV spot will do the same -- combine praise of Obama with a negative slam on Hillary. If so, look for it to become an issue today.

We're checking in with UNITE about the ad and will keep you posted.

Late Update: In terms of the size of the buy, it's worth keeping in mind that it's one day and it's on Univision, according to the filing.

Late Late Update: It turns out that the ad is all positive. Here's the full text, emailed over by a union official:

Together we built our Culinary Union and together we are winning the Las Vegas Dream.

The companies can't divide us by race or by casino or by the job we do.

Senator Barack Obama believes that the way to change America is by bringing all people together.

Together we can elect a President who will unite people.

Barack Obama for President.

Together we win. Como Siempre.

I've revised the hed to reflect this.

Hillary gets the Las Vegas Sun, while Obama picks up the Reno Gazette-Journal.

Separately, the Sun has an amusing lament about the state of the Nevada contest:

The contest in Nevada has featured disingenuous advertising, attacks based on flimsy evidence, faux-outraged surrogates and the pitching of insubstantial stories to reporters.

And the Sun is surprised by this? As Eric Kleefeld points out, this shows that this really is the first time Nevada has had a serious contest.

This morning's Zogby poll shows Hillary Clinton with a small lead over Barack obama in Nevada:

Clinton 42%
Obama 37%
Edwards 12%

Commentary from John Zogby: "Clinton holds a slight lead in Nevada but it will all depend on organization. Nevada Democrats have no real history for us to go on, so we will have to see how powerful the unions, civil rights, and other organizations are in bringing out their constituencies."