This is a bit suggestive: A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Obama has rapidly pulled even among white voters with McCain in New York in the wake of Hillary's withdrawal from the race, and is now swamping McCain among overall New Yorkers by a double digit margin, 50%-36%.

New York is obviously among the bluest of blue states. But in an April Q-poll, Obama was losing to McCain among whites by 10 points (48%-38%). Now he has 42% of whites to McCain's 43%. That's not bad movement -- and Obama's movement among whites will of course be a key metric to watch.

The poll -- which surveyed 1,388 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points --- also found that more New York voters say Hillary should not be made Veep (48%-42%). But a majority of New York Dems favor the idea (53%-35%).

That's what a new Siena College poll out today finds.

It suggests that the harsh campaign Hillary is running against Obama could be blowing back on her in her home state. Hillary has a favorability rating of less than 50% in New York -- 48%, to be exact. It's the lowest ever in Siena polling.

Meanwhile, Obama has a fave rating of 54%.

Even John McCain has a higher fave rating than Hillary in New York -- he checks in at 54%, too.

Nonetheless, Hillary is beating McCain 46%-42% in the state, while Obama is beating him 45%-40%.

A new SurveyUSA poll should provide some more ammo for Barack Obama's argument that he's the more electable Democrat — he runs better against John McCain than Hillary Clinton does in her home state of New York:

Clinton (D) 52%, McCain (R) 41%
Obama (D) 57%, McCain (R) 36%

Both would win the state, but it doesn't help Hillary's reputation at all. It would appear that a net 5% of New Yorkers would vote for Obama over McCain, but would choose McCain over Hillary, their own junior senator.

A new look at the election results from Super Tuesday could end up giving Barack Obama a few more delegates from New York — it turns out that hundreds of voting machines in New York City initially reported zero votes for him, the New York Times reports, but those numbers are now finally coming in through a formal review.

The executive director of the city's Board of Elections said that while such counting errors often happen as a result of human error, "they're not usually that big."

Indeed, even a Hillary-supporting state Assemblyman said that a margin of 118-0 in one precinct "has to be a mistake."

Thanks for bearing with us during out technical difficulties today. Here's a roundup of the various state polls that came out today, and what sense of direction they give for the Democratic primaries tomorrow. The bottom line: Your guess is really as good as ours about what's going to happen.

Hillary Clinton appears to be on track for roughly 55% in the New York Primary:

Quinnipiac: Clinton 53%, Obama 39%

SurveyUSA: Clinton 56%, Obama 38%

PPP (D): Clinton 52%, Obama 32%

Barack Obama, meanwhile, looks to be on the verge of an even greater majority in his home state:

SurveyUSA: Obama 66%, Clinton 30%

More polls after the jump.

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This morning's Zogby polls show John McCain on track for some big victories tomorrow, with California being the only real trouble spot:

California:
Romney 40% (+3)
McCain 32% (-2)
Huckabee 12%

Missouri:
McCain 35% (-1)
Huckabee 27%(+0)
Romney 24% (+2)

New Jersey:
McCain 52% (-2)
Romney 26% (+3)
Huckabee 7% (+0)

New York:
McCain 53% (+4)
Romney 19% (-4)
Huckabee 8% (+0)

A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows that Barack Obama might be sneaking up on Hillary Clinton in her home state of New York. Hillary leads with 45% of the vote, followed by Obama at 33% and John Edwards with 10%. In the demographic breakdown, Hillary leads 44%-29% among whites, Obama 44%-32% among African-Americans, and Hillary 64%-31% among Hispanics.

Bear in mind that all Democratic primaries use a form of proportional representation — so Obama could walk away with a decent chunk of delegates if he simply posts a respectable showing for an out-of-state challenger.

On the Republican side, it looks like John McCain will coast to a win in this winner-take-all contest. He leads with 34%, followed by the now-departed Rudy Giuliani at 20%, Mitt Romney with 19%, and Mike Huckabee with 10%.

Looks like Rudy's 9/11 Tourette's -- his constant mentions of his own Churchillian heroism that day -- isn't doing much to help him in the state that was the victim of the attacks. A new Siena College poll finds that Rudy is trailing John McCain by double digits in, of all places, New York:

McCain 36%
Rudy 24%
Romney 10%
Huckabee 7%
Thompson 6%

Key number: For the first time in Siena polling, Rudy's unfavorability rating tops his favorability number, 48%-44%. It seems likely to me that this shift is directly related to the big revelations about Bernie Kerik and Rudy's City Hall accounting shenanigans, which probably remind New Yorkers of the pre-9/11 Rudy that they all know so well. Perhaps it's also a backlash against Rudy's constant invocations of 9/11 on the campaign trail, too.

So much for Rudy's big state strategy. If Rudy is still around to lose the New York primary on Feb. 5, it would be hard to imagine a more humiliating turn of events for a campaign that seems determined to make it as dignity-free for its principal as possible.

Separately, it should be noted that The Huffington Post had advance word on this poll on Saturday.

Late Update: A second poll, from Marist College, shows McCain leading Rudy 34%-19% in New York. Perhaps even worse for Rudy, he's actually tied for second with Mitt Romney.

Rudy Giuliani's poor performance in the primaries so far — in three major contests, he's only beaten Ron Paul once — is starting to be noticed by his own backers back home in New York. In fact, the New York Times reports that some of them are starting to doubt that Rudy will even win his home state's primary.

"If he carries Florida, he carries New York," said Fred Siegel, a Cooper Union historian and former Rudy adviser/biographer. But as for that Florida win, Siegel said, "I wouldn't bet on it."

After threatening to drop his neutral stance in his state's Dem primary in reaction to recent comments by Hillary and Bill about race, South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn confirmed last night that he will remain neutral, after all:

On Friday evening, Mr. Clyburn, who is traveling overseas, issued a statement saying he intended to remain neutral in the early race. Mr. Clyburn, who aides said spoke with Mr. Clinton and Mr. Obama, said he wanted to make sure all candidates had an equal opportunity.

“I encourage the candidates to be sensitive about the words they use,” Mr. Clyburn said “This is an historic race for America to have such strong, diverse candidates vying for the Democratic nomination.”

Clyburn released a statement last night that you can read after the jump. Despite Clyburn's neutrality, there is a very real backlash underway in the black community towards the Clintons for their recent remarks that could present a real problem for Hillary, and her campaign is working overtime to repair the damage.

Separately, in some good news for Obama, The New York Times reports that the New York primary is shaping up as the most competitive one in 15 years, a show of Obama's surprising strength in Hillary's home state.

Read more »

A new SurveyUSA poll has some bad news for Rudy Giuliani and his big-state strategy: He's only three points ahead of John McCain in his home state of New York:

Giuliani 32%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 12%
Romney 7%
Thompson 6%

New York's Republican primary is winner-take-all — so if McCain rides his momentum and gets a plurality here, Rudy won't get any of the state's roughly 100 elected delegates.

As you've probably heard by now, Rudy Giuliani's 9/11 performance was a Masterful Display of Churchillian Resolve, and as a result, Rudy the candidate should now be seen as a kind of cross between the Terminator and Dwight Eisenhower, who ran for President after his stint as commander of the allied forces in Europe.

Presumably, the people who would best know this are New Yorkers, who got the closest view of Rudy in the disaster's aftermath.

So when New Yorkers are asked who they trust more to handle terrorism, Rudy or Hillary, naturally they pick Rudy, right? Well, take a look at this new Rasmussen poll. It finds:

Which of NEW YORK'S PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS do you trust the most to handle the War on Terror?

36% Giuliani
44% Clinton

Go figure.

If more such numbers come out, I'm sure we'll start hearing a great deal from pundits about Hillary's advantage on terror, at least in New York, as we constantly hear now about Rudy. Right?

Meanwhile, the poll also finds that Hillary is crushing Rudy the Terminator of Terrorists by an astonishing 25-point margin in New York, 58%-33%. Which would seem to make it tougher for Rudy to sustain his argument that he's the one who as GOP nominee would put reliably blue states -- such as his own -- in play.

A new poll by Siena College would seem to question just how much good Rudy can do for the GOP on one of his campaign's main talking points. A big part of his campaign has been the idea that he can compete in deep blue states that have been off-limits to other Republicans, which could potentially guarantee victory if true.

"My view of this race for president is that the Republican Party should not go into this election, as we have in the past, having to write off New York, Connecticut, New Jersey," Rudy said a week ago. "We've got to make this a 50-state election."

The new poll, however, casts some doubt on this. In New York, where the voters know him best, Giuliani certainly does better than the other Republican candidates. But the problem is, he still loses by wide margins to both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and it isn't even close.

Clinton (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 39%
Clinton (D) 54%, McCain (R) 36%
Clinton (D) 57%, F. Thompson (R) 29%
Obama (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 40%
Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 33%
Gore (D) 56%, F. Thompson (R) 28%

A new poll finds that Hillary is running much more strongly against GOP frontrunner Rudy Giuliani in New York than Barack Obama is — something which is unsurprising given that Hillary is a New York Senator, but is perhaps significant in that New York is of course a must-win state for the Dem nominee.

The new Siena College poll finds that Hillary is beating Rudy by a 12-point margin of 51%-39%, while Rudy holds a slight edge over Barack Obama, 45%-42%.

On the primary front, both Hillary and Rudy (again unsurprisingly) hold massive leads: Hillary gets 43%, trailed by Al Gore at 14% and Barack Obama with 11%; while Rudy gets 48% of Republicans, with John McCain way behind at 16%, and Newt Gingrich at 8%.