In a major Democratic pickup this year, Oregon Senate candidate Jeff Merkley is set to claim victory in the race against incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith, Merkley's spokesperson has just told us.

"We will have a comment from Jeff at 9:30 this morning [Pacific Time], where he will claim victory," Merkley spokesman Matt Canter told Election Central.

The Oregonian, the Associated Press, NBC News and Fox News have all called the race for Merkley.

It's taken a while to get this race counted because of Oregon's mail-in vote system, but it's now very clear that almost all the outstanding ballots are from Dem strongholds that Merkley has been winning handily -- and he's already up on Smith by a few points in the count as it is.

This brings the Democrats to a gain of six Senate seats so far, with three GOP-held races still up in the air. The Dems now have 57 Senate seats, counting Joe Lieberman.

Late Update: Gordon Smith has conceded the election.

The vote count is still going on in Oregon, where the state is processing ballots under the state's mail-in vote system, but it now looks like Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has lost re-election to Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley.

The Oregonian, the state's biggest newspaper and home to some of the top experts in how to interpret votes as they're counted under the state's unique voting method, finds that Merkley and Smith are currently running neck and neck in the count. However, the vast majority of the remaining votes are in the Democratic strongholds of Portland and Eugene -- and on that basis, they have projected that Merkley will be the winner once all the votes are in.

Along with the other five seats that they've already picked up, this now brings the Democrats to 57 Senate seats, counting Joe Lieberman as a member of the caucus, with three more races up in the air in Minnesota, Alaska and Georgia.

As we previously noted, polling of voters who had already mailed in their ballots was consistently showing Merkley with a big lead over Smith, which the incumbent would be hard-pressed to make up. And apparently he was not able to overcome that gap.

So here's the latest on the Senate map: We already know the Dems have picked up a minimum of five seats, but there are still four races that could go either way, with one of them leaning in the Democratic direction.

Here are the four outstanding races:

• In Alaska, GOP incumbent Senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens may have confounded the polls that showed him losing by a landslide -- he's now narrowly ahead 99% of the vote counted, and he is now saying it's almost impossible for his Dem opponent to win.

Forget about the Bradley Effect -- we're dealing here with the Stevens Effect: An unwillingness of poll respondents to admit to a pollster that they're going to vote for the convicted felon. This one seems to be tilting towards the GOP.

• In Georgia, GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss appears headed to a December runoff against Democrat Jim Martin. Chambliss came out ahead of Martin, but seems to be so tantalizingly short of his true goalpost of 50% plus one: With 96% reporting, Chambliss has 49.9%, Martin 46.7%, and the Libertarian candidate has 3.4%.

Either Chambliss has reached the threshold to avoid a runoff, in which case he's re-elected outright, or he goes into a runoff where he would have to be rated as the initial favorite.

• In the Minnesota Senate race, where GOP incumbent Norm Coleman has a lead of just a few hundred votes against Al Franken, this one is going to a recount. That process itself could take several weeks, so we may not get a true verdict on this race until some time in December.

This one is a real tossup, and there is a precedent for Senate recounts changing the initial outcome in a close race -- that exact thing happened in a key Senate race in 2000, in Washington State.

• In the current vote count in Oregon, where all balloting is done by mail, incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith has a very narrow lead over Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. However, Oregonian columnist Jeff Mapes points out that many of the outstanding votes are from the Portland and Eugene areas, which are expected to heavily favor Merkley.

It might take another few days to get this thing counted, but the conventional wisdom in the Oregon press seems to be that Merkley will eventually pull ahead. Of the four races listed here, this one presents the most optimistic outlook for the Democrats.

In the highly unlikely scenario that the Democrats were to sweep all four of these races, they would then reach that magic number of 60 Senate seats, counting Joe Lieberman. But don't expect that to happen.

Late Update: Oregon's top newspaper has projected Merkley the winner over Smith. So that's one more Democratic pick-up.

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Uncle Ted To Address Alaska On Election Eve
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), who is widely expected to lose re-election as a result of his recent felony conviction, will make a final plea (no pun intended) for his political future tomorrow night. Stevens will air a two-minute TV ad across Alaska's media markets, making the case that he should be allowed to continue to serve as Alaska's senior Senator.

Minnesota GOP Mailer Lies About The Constitution
A mailer from the Minnesota Republican Party, provided to us by two different readers in the state, gets around the pitfall of implying that the presidential race is lost in its rhetorical efforts to keep the Democrats from getting 60 seats -- they just lie about how the Constitution works:

"The U.S. Senate could have a 'super majority' of 60 Democrats after this election, allowing them to pass laws without bipartisan input or teamwork," the mailer says. "Not even a Presidential Veto will be able to stop them." The actual threshold for overriding a presidential veto is 67 votes. Minnesota GOP spokesperson Gina Countryman refused to speak with Election Central to confirm or deny the authenticity of the mailer.

Read more »

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

DSCC Ad: Coleman Refuses To Answer Questions About Lawsuit Allegations
The DSCC ad is closing out the Minnesota Senate race with this new TV ad calling GOP Sen. Norm Coleman flagrantly corrupt, focusing on last-minute lawsuits alleging that a donor funneled $75,000 to the Senator via his wife:

The most recent polling has shown the momentum swinging back to Coleman after a period in which Al Franken had taken the lead. But if the local news media ends up being focused in the last few days on corruption allegations against Coleman, it's possible that the undecideds and soft supporters of third-party candidate Dean Barkley could break to Franken.

Coleman Ad Fires Back, Accuses Franken Of Being Behind The Suit
Norm Coleman had his own ad, accusing Al Franken of being behind the lawsuits and conspiring to attack Coleman's wife:

"This time, Al Franken's crossed the line," Coleman says, his wife by his side. "My name's on the ballot -- I'm fair game for his ugly smears. My wife and family are not." The Franken campaign has strongly denied any involvement in the lawsuits.

Read more »

The early vote, a key statistic that has been closely watched in the presidential race, appears to have already taken a toll on one Republican in particular: Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon, whose re-election campaign now appears to be in serious trouble.

Indeed, a victory now appears to be very difficult for him -- which would put Dems one step closer to the magic number of 60 in the Senate.

The pattern of the early voting in Oregon -- where all balloting is conducted by mail -- is clear from the opinion polls. A SurveyUSA poll from Monday had Smith's Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley up 51%-41% among the early voters, with an estimated half of the total likely votes already cast. A release this morning from Public Policy Polling (D) has Merkley up 59%-37% among early voters, with 59% of the total likely votes now cast.

Read more »

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Another Poll Shows Tight Race For Murtha
A new poll from the Las-Vegas based Dane & Associates, commissioned by GrassrootsPA.com, shows Jack Murtha with a bare lead of 46%-44% over GOP opponent William Russell, within the ±3% margin of error. GrassrootsPA.com is a right-wing site, but it should be noted that Dane is a non-partisan firm that has done polling work for politicians of both parties from across the country.

New Mahoney Ad: He's A Jerk, But Look At The Other Guy
Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL), whose sex scandal has probably doomed his bid for re-election, has this new ad in which constituents admit he's been a personal disappointment, but his opponent's positions on the issues would damage the country:

One line in particular seems poorly written for a politician in Mahoney's situation: "He (Rooney) doesn't have Congressman Mahoney's experience."

Read more »

Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

Right-Wing Group Jumps In Against Murtha
The right-wingers smell blood in the water in the wake of Jack Murtha's comments calling his constituents racists and rednecks, and now Vets For Freedom is going in with this ad buy of more than $50,000 against Murtha:

This ad avoids the "racist" comments, but instead features Marines saying that Murtha, a veteran of the Vietnam War, smeared and betrayed American troops when he said civilians were killed in cold blood at Haditha: "I expected to be attacked by the insurgents -- not from Congressmen at home."

DCCC Airs New Ad Against Murtha's Opponent
The DCCC is now having to come to Murtha's defense, as well, running this new ad attacking Murtha's opponent William Russell:

The DCCC has not yet disclosed the exact size of the ad buy, but it will be more than the $84,000 that the NRCC has put into advertising on this race.

Read more »

GOP Takes Out Big Loan For Home Stretch
The RNC has taken out a $5 million loan in the home stretch of the campaign to give to the NRSC and Senate candidates, joining other party committees that have made the same decision in order to maximize gains -- or in this case, minimize losses -- on Election Day. The party's big challenge will be to avoid a nine-seat loss that would give the Dems a filibuster-proof majority, but even a Dem majority that came close to that would be highly damaging for the GOP.

Right-Wing Celebrities (Sort Of) To Minnesota: We Apologize For Franken
The new NRSC ad against Al Franken features a rather novel gimmick in their attempt to paint Franken as an untouchable Hollywood celebrity. In this ad, right-wing Hollywood B-listers apologize to Minnesota for the way Franken has given their profession a bad name:

Was Dennis Miller not available? In all seriousness, Franken has by now overcome some of the problems from his goofy comedy image that dogged his campaign for quite a while. If the GOP is to defeat him now that he's taken a narrow lead in most polls, they'll need to win Minnesotans over on substantive issues. Oh, wait a minute...

Read more »

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races;

NRSC's New Mailer Invites Children To Read About Pornography, Rape
The NRSC has this new mailer against Al Franken, presented in the format of a goofy children's book about what an obscene human being Franken is. The mailer invites unsuspecting children to open the pages, and then read about pornography and rape:

To his credit, GOP Sen. Norm Coleman has distanced himself from this one. "A piece of direct mail, dealing with this subject matter, that could be viewed as a comic book by children is something that is just not acceptable," Coleman wrote in a letter to NRSC chairman John Ensign. "I'm astonished that anyone would have used such poor judgment."

Poll: GOP Sen. Smith Already Losing Badly With Half The Vote In
The new SurveyUSA poll shows Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) trailing Democrat Jeff Merkley by a 49%-42% margin -- and the internals are even worse. Half of the voters have already turned in their ballot, the poll says, and this group has given Merkley a 51%-41% win. Time is running out for Smith to get the landslide win among the remaining voters that he would need in order to pull of a victory.

Read more »

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

AFL-CIO Takes Aim At Bachmann
The AFL-CIO is now going into the race against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), smelling blood in the water thanks to her McCarthyist rant on Hardball and new poll data showing her narrowly losing to conservative Democrat El Tinklenberg. Here's their new mailer:

"Michele Bachmann helped break the economy," the mailer says sternly. "Working families can't afford another term."

Obama Tapes Ad For Merkley
Barack Obama has taped an ad for Jeff Merkley, the Dem nominee against Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), asking the voters in this blue state to "choose real change" with Merkley:

This is the first ad that Obama has done for a down-ticket candidate during the general election, and was likely done in direct response to Smith's own efforts to tie himself to Obama and other major Dem names like Ted Kennedy and John Kerry.

Read more »

Bachmann Challenger's Fundraising Skyrockets
The campaign of Elwyn Tinklenberg, the Democratic challenger against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), tells Election Central that they've raised $650,000 online since her now-infamous McCarthyite appearance on Hardball. This is an astonishing number for a House race by any measure, and even more special in light of the fact that this is nearly twice his cash-on-hand at the end of September.

McConnell: I Would Still Back Iraq War, "Regardless Of The Initial Justification"
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) reaffirmed that he would have voted to authorize the Iraq War, even knowing now that there were no weapons of mass destruction. "Regardless of the initial justification, I don't think the Middle East or the world would be better off if he was there," McConnell told the Courier-Journal editorial board. "I think that is a substantial improvement."

Read more »

NRSC: We Are Not Pulling Out Of Colorado
The NRSC is denying reports that they are pulling out of the Colorado Senate race, a story that has been circulating on the blogs today. "Reports that we are pulling out of Colorado are false," NRSC spokesman John Randall told Election Central, adding that another ad is going up on the air.

DCCC Out-Raises NRCC In Loan Money, Too
The DCCC has taken out a $15 million loan in order to give themselves a financial boost in the home stretch of the election. This is nearly twice the the $8 million loan the NRCC took out in an attempt to even out their serious financial gap against the DCCC -- so the DCCC has responded in kind.

Read more »

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Bachmann Separates Herself From Bush, Both Physically And Figuratively
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), who famously hugged President Bush at his 2007 State of the Union and didn't seem to want to let go, is now making some distance between herself and the unpopular president. At a debate earlier today, Bachmann boasted that she opposed Bush on the Wall St. bailout, and attacked her Democratic opponent El Tinklenberg: "He is more line with President Bush's policies than I am."

Smith Airs Another Ad With Wyden, Obama and Kennedy
Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), whose ads have connected him to liberal icons like Ted Kennedy and Barack Obama as he seeks re-election this blue state, has yet another ad using video footage of Ron Wyden, his Democratic co-Senator, praising him and appearing to endorse him:

Wyden previously called on Smith to can the first ad that pulled this trick, because it incorporated Wyden's signature to really make it look like Wyden was for Smith. Now Smith has met Wyden halfway -- he's dropped the signature, but kept the video.

Read more »

Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

Coleman Ad: I'm For Hope
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has this new ad in which he talks about how he's taken his negative ads down, and he believes in hope:

It should be noted that the NRSC is still continuing to run attack ads against Al Franken, thus allowing the negativity to continue while keeping Coleman's hands nominally clean. And he seems to acknowledge this, too: "I can't control every ad out there, but I'm proud to approve this one."

Dem Ad: Don Young Is Doling Out Pork For Other People
Check out this new DCCC ad against Don Young, which goes into the federal investigations against him and the suspicious circumstances surrounding earmarks like the Coconut Road in Florida. But the real message here is that Don Young is using his pork-granting superpowers to benefit other states:

"So what's Alaska getting?" the announcer says. "According to one non-partisan watchdog, one of America's most corrupt members of Congress."

Read more »

Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

Mahoney's Re-Election Chances Downgraded
In a move that shouldn't really surprise anybody, the pundits are reclassifying Congressman Tim Mahoney's (D-FL) re-election chances in the wake of revelations that he had an affair with a former staffer and allegedly paid over $121,000 in hush money. Stuart Rothenberg has changed the race from from "Toss-UP/Tilt Democratic" to "Pure Toss-Up," and Charlie Cook has shifted it from "Lean Democratic" to "Lean Republican."

Another Poll Shows Al Franken Ahead In Minnesota
The new Quinnipiac poll in Minnesota gives Al Franken a slender lead in the Minnesota Senate race: Franken 38%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 36%, and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley at 18%, with a ±3% margin of error. Quinnipiac's previous poll from three weeks ago gave Coleman a 49%-42% lead in a two-way race, but a lot has happened since then with the economy. It should also be noted that a recent Rasmussen poll did not show Barkley definitively siphoning more votes from one major candidate or the other.

Read more »

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Foley Successor Embroiled In Own Allegations of Misconduct
Democrats could end up losing a key Florida House seat that they picked up in 2006: The district of the infamous former GOP Rep. Mark Foley. Freshman Democrat Tim Mahoney reportedly agreed to pay $121,000 to a former female staffer and alleged mistress, after she threatened to sue him. Mahoney is facing a competitive challenge from GOP candidate Tom Rooney.

Dem Ad: Norm Coleman Is "Shameless"
The DSCC has this new ad against Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), lampooning his recent announcement that he'll suspend negative advertisement as a ploy to avoid responsibility for his own misleading attacks and personal scandals:

"Suit from Neiman Marcus: $1,400. Misleading attack ads paid for by you and your allies: $6.8 million," the announcer says. "Calling for a suspension of negative ads after smearing your opponent? Shameless."

Read more »

Palin Lies About Ethics Report's Finding
Sarah Palin falsely told reporters this morning that the Alaska legislature's ethics report on Trooper-Gate clears her of any wrongdoing. "And if you read the report, you'll see that there was nothing unlawful or unethical about replacing a cabinet member. You got to read the report, sir," Palin said. In fact, the report says that Palin violated the state's ethics codes in bringing pressure upon cabinet members to take retaliatory actions against her ex-brother-in-law.

Obama Thanks McCain For Calling Him A Decent Man
At a stop in Philadelphia this morning, Barack Obama thanked John McCain for telling his own audiences to be respectful, and that Obama is a decent man. "I want to acknowledge that Senator McCain tried to tone down the rhetoric in his town hall meeting yesterday, and I appreciated his reminder that we can disagree while still being respectful of each other," Obama said.

Obama In Philadelphia
Barack Obama is touring through Philadelphia, today, holding multiple rallies around the city. Obama held an 8:15 a.m. ET rally at Progress Plaza, a 9:30 a.m rally at the Mayfair Diner, an 11:15 a.m. rally at Vernon Park, and he has one more scheduled for at 1:10 p.m. ET, at the intersection of South 52nd Street and Locust Street. Joe Biden does not have any public events.

McCain In Iowa, Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain has a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Davenport, Iowa -- an odd choice for a visit, considering how polling right now has Barack Obama winning Iowa by a more than double-digit margin. Sarah Palin held a rally at 10 a.m. ET this morning in Johnstown, Pennsylvania.

Poll: McCain Has Narrow Edge In North Carolina
A new North Carolina poll from Marshall Marketing gives John McCain a 48%-46% lead in this new swing state, within the ±4.5% margin of error. The same poll also shows Democratic Senate candidate Kay Hagan with a 44%-43% edge over Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole, within the same margin of error.

Dem Senator To GOPer: Take Down Ad That Features Me
Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) has called upon fellow Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith (R) to take down an ad that used old video of Wyden praising Smith, so as to make it appear as if Wyden was endorsing him. In fact, Wyden just recently did a commercial for Democratic nominee Jeff Merkley.

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Coleman Suspends Negative Ads, Sort Of
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who has fallen behind in the polls against Al Franken thanks to the economic crisis and voter backlash against the negative turn that the campaign has taken, has announced that he is pulling all of his negative ads, and will only run positive spots. There is a loophole here, though: The Coleman campaign can cancel its own negative advertising, but the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and outside groups will still be able to run as many attacks against Al Franken as they want.

Franken Camp: Our Ads Against Coleman's Record Are Staying
In a statement released to the media, Al Franken's campaign declared that they'll keep their attack ads against Norm Coleman running: "Given that this week's polls are clearly showing that Minnesotans are sick of Norm Coleman's campaign of character assassination, today's stunt rings as a cynical ploy designed to change the subject and avoid scrutiny of his own record. It's like an arsonist burning down every house in the village and then asking to be named fire chief."

Read more »

Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races:

McConnell Ad Ties Lunsford To Schumer And New York
Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, who is facing a tough challenge from Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford, has this incredible ad out tying Lunsford to the New York liberalism of DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer:

"And this guy wants to put a New Yawk Senadduh in Kentucky," the announcer says, in a hammed-up New York City accent. "Fuggedaboudit."

Gordon Smith: Palin Is A Great Governor For California
Some Republicans have taken to exaggerating Sarah Palin's qualifications, but this is just ridiculous. In a funny verbal slip-up in last night's Senate debate in Oregon, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith referred to Sarah Palin as an effective governor for California:

"I've met Sarah Palin once, she's a lovely person," Smith said. "She's a great governor of California, she's a strong executive."

Read more »

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Franken Ad: GOP Ads Lie About Me Being Angry
Al Franken, who has taken the lead in the latest polls of the Minnesota Senate race, has this new one-minute TV ad, showing in detail how a Republican attack ad has twisted around footage of him doing a humorous impersonation of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone in order to make Franken look manic and angry:

"Look familiar?" the announcer says. "That's right. Ads for Norm Coleman use this footage of Al Franken telling this story about Paul Wellstone and his son and try to make is seem like he was angry. Minnesota deserves better."

Polls: Dems Ahead In Alaska's Congressional Races
A new poll from Alaska pollster Ivan Moore shows Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and Rep. Don Young (R), both tainted by scandal, trailing their Democratic opponents. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) leads Stevens 49%-45%, and former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz has a wider lead of 51%-42% over Don Young.

Read more »

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

The Worst Press Conference Ever?
You really have to watch this excruciating press conference given by Sen. Norm Coleman's (R-MN) campaign manager, in which he struggled to (not) answer questions about reports that his boss' clothes were paid for by one of his campaign contributors. Give it a look -- it's well worth your time.

House GOP Gets Huge Loan
In a sign of just how desperate things are going for the House Republicans, Roll Call reports that the NRCC has obtained an $8 million loan in order for them to be able to compete against their much better-funded Democratic counterparts. Deep thought: In this economy, one can only wonder what kind of interest rate they're being charged.

Read more »

Veterans Group To McConnell: Take Down Ad That Uses Our Name
The Military Order of the Purple Heart is demanding that the campaign of Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell pull an ad in which a McConnell supporter identifies himself as a member of the organization and appears to speak on its behalf:

"I am a member of the Military Order of the Purple Heart, the official organization of combat-wounded veterans," says Lee Moore. "Our veterans demand an investigation into the negligent care that Bruce Lunsford's clinics provided." Moore then goes on to accuse Lunsford of manipulating an 83-year old veteran who appeared in a Lunsford ad defending the candidate. Lee Moore is not a spokesman for the group, and furthermore its bylaws forbid it from being involved in partisan politics.

Poll: Dem Narrowly Ahead For Heather Wilson's House Seat
A new Albuquerque Journal poll shows a close race for the open seat of Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM), who left the seat open when she ran unsuccessfully in the GOP primary for the Senate. The numbers: Democratic Martin Heinrich 43%, Republican Darren White 41%, within the ±4.9% margin of error.

Read more »